By Scott Kacsmar
While many have been bracing for an NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers to break the tie with 17 championships a piece, the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat have something to say about that first.
Led by the spectacular play of Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler, the Nuggets and Heat have both taken a 1-0 lead in the Conference Finals.
Teams leading 1-0 in this round win the series 78% of the time. Teams leading 2-0 in the Conference Finals are 72-6 (.923), so these Game 2s on Thursday and Friday night are virtual must-win games for the Lakers and Celtics.
Which team has a better chance of evening the series at 1-1? We make our spread picks and a favorite prop pick below for Game 2.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets (-5.5)
The spread for Game 1 moved a half point to Denver -6.5 at the last minute, and we know the game infamously ended 132-126. Apparently, some are impressed enough by the Lakers in defeat for the Nuggets to only be favored by 5.5 points now, but it is hard to say if the Lakers should be encouraged or discouraged by their performance.
The 132-126 final in Game 1 is the second-highest scoring Game 1 of a Conference Finals in NBA history. Oddly enough, the only higher game was in 1985 between the Lakers and Nuggets, a 139-122 win by the Lakers in a series they won 4-1.
Going back to 1971 when the NBA introduced the Conference Finals round, the Lakers’ 126 points and .548 FG% were the highest in a Game 1 loss in this round. Only six other teams scored over 115 points in a Game 1 loss in the Conference Finals, and those teams were 3-3 in Game 2.
Historically, losing NBA teams who score over 125 points while shooting at least 50% are 7-5 in the next game in their playoff series.
But the Lakers are not in this series for their offense, and it is reasonable to think they will not match their gaudy numbers from Game 1 on the road again. However, the Nuggets are just No. 15 in Defensive Rating in the regular season while the Lakers have been elite on that side of the court since making their moves in February.
The Lakers have some decisions to make in Game 2. Do they continue starting Dennis Schroder and leaving Jarred Vanderbilt on the bench, and do they consider benching D’Angelo Russell in favor of starting Rui Hachimura?
The Lakers are only minus-1.1 in Net Rating with Hachimura on the court this postseason, but he has had some impressive outings, including 17 points in Game 1 to make up for the lack of production from Russell and Schroder, who combined for 14 points. But the Lakers will likely feel more comfortable with Hachimura continuing to come off the bench.
Austin Reaves has been hot from 3 with 57.7% shooting over the last four games, but he is unlikely to match Game 1 where he made a season-high 5 3-point shots.
It still comes back to Anthony Davis and LeBron James paving the way for the Lakers. The good news is Davis looked great in Game 1 with 40 points, and he could have easily had 4 blocks had the scorers have been more accurate with their credit. James had a poor finish with missed 3s and a turnover, but he was very good the rest of the game.
The Lakers started Game 1 in a ridiculous 20-3 rebound hole, then were even (27-27) the rest of the way in that department. The Lakers only had 7 turnovers in Game 1.
A lot of positives for the Lakers in Game 1, but they must do a better job of making things harder on Jokic. Thankfully, he had 9 rebounds in the last three quarters after a historic 12 in the first quarter. He also had just 3 points in the fourth quarter, and his last field goal in the game was a miracle 3 to end the third quarter. If the Lakers can cut down those back-breaking plays on the road and look more like the No. 1 defense this postseason, they should be able to even this series.
The Lakers are 10-1 SU following a loss since the All-Star break. The Lakers have not lost consecutive games by 5-plus points since December 21. We will gladly take the Lakers against the spread in Game 2 with a solid chance for an outright win.
NBA Pick: Lakers +5.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Bonus Prop Pick: Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 Points
Porter Jr. scored 15 points for Denver in Game 1, including 3-of-6 from deep. But on open shots, he was only 1-for-4 from the field and 0-for-2 from 3 according to NBA.com. He can do better than that as the Lakers try to slow down Jamal Murray (31 points), and contain Nikola Jokic (34 points) better, and they should expect Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (21 points) and Bruce Brown (16 points) to cool down.
Porter Jr. being the 5th-leading scorer on Denver in Game 1 should bode well for him to go higher in this game as he is the team’s 3rd-leading scorer on the season at 17.4 points per game. Only needs 1 more point than he had in Game 1, look for him to hit his over here.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (-9)
What more does the Miami Heat, now 9-3 ATS this postseason, need to do to get some respect? The Heat are 9-2 in Game 1s in the Jimmy Butler era, they played impressively in a 123-116 win in Game 1 in Boston, and the spread for Game 2 has still gone up to Boston -9.
We have seen enough. Playoff Jimmy is a real thing for Jimmy Butler, who had 35 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and a playoff career-high 6 steals in Game 1. Butler put all the finishing touches on Miami’s latest double-digit comeback win, registering two of his crucial steals in the final minutes, and his late 3 was a dagger.
Boston won 13 more games than Miami in the regular season, and teams with that advantage over their playoff opponent are 14-2 in the series. But maybe the Heat, the No. 8 seed, are oblivious to what the regular season says they are supposed to do this time of year as Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the game. Meanwhile, Boston’s rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla may be showing his inexperience in those crucial moments late in close games.
Game 2 will be a telling one as the Heat have to shake off some difficult history as it is so hard to win Game 2 on the road. In the Conference Finals, the Game 1 road winner is just 15-25 (.375) in Game 2. That actually is better than the overall record for a Game 2 road team, which is 40-130 (.235) in all NBA rounds.
But more often than not, the Game 2 home team down 1-0 evens the series. In fact, it has happened 16 straight times, including the Celtics in the last round against Philadelphia. Many of these wins have been by double digits too.
There also could be some positive regression for the Celtics, and that means more than just Jayson Tatum not getting called for traveling twice in the final minutes. As great as Butler is, he had a heck of a team effort in Game 1 with six Heat players scoring at least 15 points, and six players made multiple 3s.
The 3-point shooting was a huge deal in Game 1:
- Miami shot 16-of-31 (51.6%), the team’s 4th-highest 3P% game this season.
- The last three times the Heat shot that well from deep, they were 0-3 in the next game with losses by 4, 29, and 16 points.
- Boston was just 10-of-29 (34.5%) from 3 in Game 1.
- The 29 attempts are tied for the second-fewest by the Celtics in a game this season, and Boston is 2-4 with fewer than 33 attempts from deep.
- The Celtics are 15-22 (.405) when they shoot under 35% from 3 this season.
- The Celtics are 38-2 (.950) when they shoot at least 39.5% from 3.
It would be shocking if the Celtics did not come out with a big night from 3 in Game 2. Miami’s worst loss this postseason was Game 2 against Milwaukee when the Bucks shot 25-of-49 from 3 in a 138-122 win. The 25-made 3s tied the NBA playoff record. Boston will probably not shoot that well, but it should put up a good number at home and even in this series.
As tempting as it may be to pick Jimmy Buckets to cover again, and as fun as it is to predict a Heat-Nuggets Finals, we are siding with the Lakers and Celtics to deliver in these Game 2s. Just last year, the Celtics won Game 2 by a 127-102 final in Miami after losing Game 1 with the same starting five they have now. These teams know each other well, and this should be a long series.
NBA Pick: Celtics -9 (-110 at FanDuel)
Bonus Prop Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Made 3s
Brown finished Game 1 with a solid stat line of 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. But his shooting touch was gone in the fourth quarter after getting trampled over a loose ball, which led to some bleeding. Brown missed several shots down the stretch, and he finished the game 1-of-6 from 3-point range. It was only the fourth playoff game this year where Brown failed to make multiple 3s. Brown has gone over 2.5 made 3s in 8-of-11 games going into Game 2. Count on him to bounce back with a better shooting night to help the Celtics prevail.
