By Scott Kacsmar
For possibly the last time this season, the NBA has a four-game slate this Wednesday evening. We make our spread pick for each Game 5. The underdogs are currently on a 5-1 ATS streak in what has been a wild week in the NBA playoffs.
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5)
Sometimes, a team just has your number. The Cavaliers were 1-3 against the Knicks in the regular season and they are down 3-1 in this first-round series with elimination staring them in the face at home Wednesday night.
Some notable records for this matchup from this season:
- The Knicks cover an NBA-best 61.7% of their games after a win
- Cleveland had the 5th-best spread record (25-17-1, 59.5%) at home
- New York had the 3rd-best spread record (27-15-1, 64.3%) on the road
- Cleveland is 24-16-1 ATS (60.0%) as a home favorite
- New York is 18-12-1 ATS (60%) as a road underdog
Donovan Mitchell was held to just 11 points in Game 4, tied for the 3rd-lowest playoff scoring game of his career. He was a minus-27 in the two games in New York compared to a plus-26 in the two home games in Cleveland.
Cleveland is supposed to be the slowest-paced team and No. 1 defense in the league, but the Knicks are beating them at their own game in this series. The Cavaliers have failed to crack 100 points in 3-of-4 games, something they only did eight times in the regular season.
The last three games in this series have been decided by 9-plus points. We could be due for a tighter finish, and the Knicks already proved in Game 1 that they can win on the road in this series. They did that with Julius Randle shooting 7-of-20 and finishing minus-8 on the scoreboard when he was on the court. Randle was benched for the fourth quarter of Sunday’s Game 4 win, so the Cavaliers can either expect him to play much better, or they know the Knicks are capable of winning without Randle.
That is because Jalen Brunson has been the best player in this series as he has outplayed Mitchell and Darius Garland. The Knicks look good and their style travels well on the road. Let’s take them to cover the spread and possibly end this series with another upset win.
NBA Pick: Knicks +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-4)
The Lakers came back to survive in an overtime thriller to win Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 lead. No team led by LeBron James has ever blown a 2-0 or 3-1 lead in a best-of-7 series. But the Grizzlies are a tough team to knock out and they will be at home playing for their season.
Here are some notable records for this matchup:
- Memphis covers 57.1% of the time at home
- The Lakers cover 47.6% of the time on the road
- Memphis is 20-18-1 ATS (52.6%) as a home favorite
- The Lakers are 15-18-1 ATS (45.5%) as a road underdog
The Grizzlies did themselves no favor with a first-quarter no-show in Game 3 after Dillon Brooks made his absurd comments about LeBron James’ age. But in Game 4, that could have easily been a Memphis win on a night where both teams were terrible at 3-point shooting before D’Angelo Russell hit three straight threes to rescue the Lakers from a 97-90 deficit before winning in overtime.
Memphis should absolutely shoot better than 9-for-42 (21.4%) from three at home in Game 5. As for the Lakers, they have struggled to get big games out of LeBron and Anthony Davis on the same night in this series. Davis has had two very quiet games and two big ones so far.
LeBron is playing well with 24 points per game, though he has yet to score 30 in any game this series, and he is 2-for-19 on threes since Game 2. It really comes down to if the Lakers can get the supporting cast going again on the road, or if the Grizzlies will not have to worry much about Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura in this game.
This feels like a classic spot for a letdown by the Lakers. A game where LeBron gets his points because the supporting cast does not get there share, and the Grizzlies live to fight another day with a comfortable win.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies -4 (-114 at FanDuel)
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-11.5)
What a stunning series this has been as the Heat look to make Milwaukee the first top seed to lose a first-round series in the Eastern Conference since the Bulls in 2012.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s back injury in Game 1 changed the dynamics of this one, but he is also a minus-8 in the nearly 50 minutes he has played in this series. The real story might be how the Heat, the lowest-scoring team in the NBA this season, are scoring at least 119 points in every game against Milwaukee.
This is only the second time in franchise history that the Heat have scored at least 119 points in four straight games, and they are doing it without Tyler Herro, who broke multiple fingers in Game 1. Duncan Robinson has stepped up with some big threes off the bench to help out there.
But Jimmy Butler is the man for Miami, and Game 4 was his masterpiece with 56 points, tied for the 4th-most in playoff history. Butler really put the team on his back as no other Heat player scored more than 15 points. The Heat were left for dead in that fourth quarter before Butler sparked a run that stole a win and a 3-1 lead.
Here are some notable records for this matchup:
- The Bucks are 15-10-1 ATS (60.0%) after a loss, the 4th-best record
- The Bucks are 24-16-2 ATS (60.0%) as a home favorite, the 8th-best record
- Miami is 9-12 ATS (42.9%) as a road underdog
- Miami is now 5-3 SU against the Bucks this season
Despite Miami’s consistent scoring against the Bucks and the 3-1 lead, Milwaukee is still +116 to win this series and +550 to win the NBA Finals (3rd-best odds). Clearly, the oddsmakers continue to disrespect the Heat and Butler.
Now any fan with minimal NBA experience knows this is probably the perfect spot for the Bucks to win in blowout fashion against a tired Miami team that had to scrape together a comeback on one player’s back (56 points) two nights ago. We have seen this movie about as often as AMC plays Lethal Weapon.
By all means, Milwaukee absolutely should win this game. But an 11.5-point spread is asking a lot for a team that is not defending well or getting consistent performances out of the supporting cast. Maybe betting on the Miami team scoring under (103.5 points) is the real value bet here as that will regress. But for the spread, I would still take the Heat to hang tough with a No. 1 seed that was always a bit suspect going into this tournament.
NBA Pick: Heat +11.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings (+1.5)
The game of the night is in Sacramento as the Kings and Warriors look to break their 2-2 tie with the home team winning every game so far. That was not surprising if you followed these teams this season.
Here are some notable records from this season for this matchup:
- The Kings are 22-13 ATS (62.9%) after a loss, the best record in the NBA
- The Warriors are 11-31 ATS (26.2%) on the road, by far the worst record in the NBA
- The Warriors are 6-16 ATS (27.3%) as a road favorite, the 3rd-worst record
- The Kings are 26-14-1 ATS (65%) with equal rest, the best record in the NBA
- The Warriors rank No. 28 in Defensive Rating on the road and No. 3 at home this season
Once again, we get to see if the Warriors can continue this ridiculous trend of losing on the road and winning at home. The Kings stood tough in Game 4 despite big offensive games from the Warriors’ stars. Even in the fourth quarter, the Kings were right there at the end, coming up short by one basket in a 126-125 loss.
The best news is guard De’Aaron Fox is expected to play despite a finger injury. It was initially ruled that he would miss this game, but he expects to play no matter what. Fox has been brilliant in this series with 31.5 points per game, but he will need to prove he can still shoot effectively with that finger issue.
The Kings could also stand to get much more out of Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter after they combined for 11 points on 15 shots in Sunday’s loss.
With the assumption that Fox will be fine and get more help in this game, let’s go with the Kings to regain the series lead and add another road loss to Golden State’s resume.
NBA Pick: Kings +1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
