By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA playoffs continue this Tuesday with a pair of Game 5s. The first match is Philadelphia returning to Boston after James Harden led an overtime thriller on Sunday. The late game is Phoenix and Denver looking to break a 2-2 tie with some of the best offensive performances in playoff history from Devin Booker and Nikola Jokic.
We make our spread picks for both games below.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics (-7.5)
This series has felt one-sided towards Boston, but the 76ers are still tied at 2-2 after James Harden had another incredible, vintage performance in Game 4. But it sure does seem unlikely for him to repeat it two days later on the road as a 7.5-point underdog.
Some notable records for this matchup from this season:
- Philadelphia (52-36-2 ATS, 59.1%) has the best spread record in the NBA this season, but Boston (52-40 ATS, 56.5%) is respectable at No. 4
- Boston is 16-12 ATS (57.1%) after a loss, the 6th-best record
- Boston is 25-19 ATS (56.8%) as a home favorite this season
- Philadelphia is 11-11 ATS (50%) as a road underdog
- Boston is 37-25 ATS (59.7%) against conference opponents, the 2nd-best record in the NBA
- Boston is +11.2 in Offensive Rating in this series, easily the largest difference among the four active playoff series
Harden’s performances were so bad in Games 2-3 that it seems unreal that he rebounded so well on Sunday, scoring 42 points on 23 shots with 6-of-9 from deep. That might be something he could do in a Game 6, but chances are he will cool down in this one. Once he started being less decisive late in Game 4, the Celtics were able to erase a 16-point deficit and looked like the better team late in the game. It was only a Harden 3 late in overtime combined with Boston’s extremely slow final possession that led to a win for the 76ers.
Boston also should expect much better from Jayson Tatum, who scored just 2 points in the first half in Game 4. He finished with 24 points and nearly had a game-winning basket in overtime, albeit after he got away with pushing off, but Joel Embiid’s pass to Harden denied that opportunity. Tatum should know he must be more aggressive and accurate than he was in Game 4.
The 76ers have arguably more top-heavy talent with Harden and the MVP of the league, but their key role players, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris, are not delivering in this series. Maxey had a fine Game 1 with 26 points, but he is averaging 16.5 points on 36.6% shooting from the field and 28.6% from 3. Harris has 16 total points over the last two games and is 1-of-6 from deep.
Meanwhile, the Celtics still have that reliable duo of Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but Marcus Smart had 21 points in Game 4, and he may have sunk the game-winning 3 in overtime had he gotten the ball a few fractions of a second faster. Al Horford is usually good for a few savvy veteran plays each game in crunch time. Malcolm Brogdon continues to be awesome off the bench for Boston after having 19 points and 8 rebounds in Game 4. The Celtics are plus-5.9 in Net Rating with Brogdon on the court this postseason. That number was minus-2.7 in the regular season.
In the best-of-7 series with this win and site order, the home team in Game 5 is 24-5 (.828). The 76ers have lost their last seven Game 5s when tied 2-2.
This should be closer than the 121-87 blowout the last time the 76ers played in Boston in Game 2, but the Celtics have shown for most of this series why they are the favored team. Let’s trust them to show it again in this game with a cover.
NBA Pick: Celtics -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets (-5.5)
The Nuggets are a 5.5-point home favorite after losing two close games in Phoenix to even this series to 2-2. But it could take another historic performance from Devin Booker to slow down the history that Nikola Jokic is making. Yes, Jokic is definitely playing after the league ruled no suspension for his sideline tussle with Suns owner Mat Ishbia in Game 4.
Here are some notable records for this matchup:
- Phoenix is only 24-25-1 ATS after a win this season
- Denver is 18-13 ATS (58.1%) after a loss, the 4th-best record
- Denver is 29-16-1 ATS (64.4%) as a home team, tied with Golden State for the NBA’s best record
- Denver is 25-16-1 ATS (61.0%) as a home favorite, the 5th-best record overall and the 3rd-best record (min. 4 games)
- Phoenix is 9-14-1 ATS (39.1%) as a road underdog, the 8th-worst record
After falling behind 2-0, the Suns mostly controlled play in Games 3 and 4 at home to even the series. Denver did erase a 16-point deficit in Game 3 and made Phoenix work hard for the win, but the Suns are being absolutely carried by Devin Booker, who is playing at the height of his powers.
In nine games this postseason, Booker is averaging 36.8 points, 7.4 assists, 61.7% from the field, and 51.0% from 3 – no one in NBA history has matched these numbers over a 9-game span (regular season or postseason). Only Michael Jordan in January 1988, a random regular-season span, came close to these benchmarks we are seeing from Booker.
In the last two games (wins), Booker is 34-of-43 from the field (79.1%). He has been incredible, and his team has needed every bit of it as no one outside of Kevin Durant (32.0 points per game) has been that consistent in this series.
Point guard Chris Paul remains out with a groin injury. The Suns won both games with backup Cameron Payne, though he has 12 points and 10 assists in the last two games combined as he may not be 100% healthy himself. You can criticize Paul for being well past his prime, but not having his mid-range jumper to close out games, or his overall basketball intelligence and experience could be a factor in one of these games.
Deandre Ayton has not lived up to his full potential at the center, and the Suns started playing more of Jock Landale – yes, his name is Jock – to help with rebounding and defense. Landry Shamet surprised everyone with 19 points in Game 4 after scoring 14 points in the rest of the postseason. But the Suns are definitely leaning heavily on Booker and Durant, so if one of them has an off day, they could be in serious trouble.
As for Denver, some of the flaws with the roster are showing through in these last two games. If you let Nikola Jokic go wild but contain the role players, you can feel confident about beating this team as long as you have a couple of Hall of Famers, which is true for Phoenix, Los Angeles (LeBron James and Anthony Davis), and Golden State (Big Three).
Jokic had some brilliant games in Phoenix despite the losses. In Game 3, Jokic had 30 points, 17 rebounds, and 17 assists. No one ever had a 25-15-15 playoff game before that. In Game 4, Jokic scored 53 points on 30 shots with 11 assists, giving him the 4th-most points in a playoff loss in NBA history.
The Suns are content with Jokic doing this if the supporting cast does not hurt them. Even though Jamal Murray averaged 30 points per game in Games 3-4, he was 2-for-9 from 3-point territory. In fact, Murray is 2-for-18 from 3 in the last three games, so he is badly in need of a bounce-back game at home. Murray has four playoff games with over 3.5 made 3-point shots this postseason and all of them were at home. He is a great candidate to bounce back with an efficient game rather than the 60 points on 54 shots he had in the last two games.
Michael Porter Jr. was only 2-for-9 from deep and scored 11 points in Game 4. If he does not bounce back, then maybe it is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who was 0-for-4 from 3 in the two games in Phoenix. He was 7-for-12 from deep at home to start this series.
Basically, we can count on Jokic to deliver something special and look for him to do more as a rebounder after tying his season-low with 4 boards in Game 4. We can probably count on Durant and Booker to combine for at least 60 out of necessity for Phoenix to compete.
But if one of those shooters has a down night, the Suns are screwed. If the supporting cast does not produce a random contributor like Shamet or the shots T.J. Warren made late in Game 3, then it is hard to see Phoenix prevailing on the road.
The Nuggets may be a flawed team, but they are the No. 1 seed, and this cast of Porter Jr., Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Gordon, and certainly Murray are often enough for Jokic to get a win at home.
Let’s go with Booker to blink a little on offense, the Nuggets to cover in the altitude, and for no owners to flop at courtside this time.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -5.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
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