LeBron or Curry in the Playoffs?
By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA playoffs continue this Tuesday with a doubleheader as the Knicks look to tie the Heat, followed by the much-anticipated Game 1 between the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. It is the latest and possibly final chapter in the LeBron James vs. Steph Curry rivalry.
We are making our spread picks for both games below.
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks (-6.5)
The Miami Heat continue to defy the odds this postseason with a third-straight comeback win from a double-digit deficit in Game 1 against the Knicks. Miami was far from great in the road performance, but it was enough for a 108-101 win on Sunday afternoon.
Now, the Heat are 6.5-point road underdogs as there are some major concerns over the health and availability of superstar Jimmy Butler.
Some notable records for this matchup from this season:
- Miami is 36-51-3 ATS (41.4%), the 3rd-worst record in the NBA
- New York is 48-36-4 ATS (57.1%), the 3rd-best record in the NBA
- Miami is 16-30-3 ATS (34.6%) after a win, the 4th-worst record
- Miami is 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%) on the road, the 7th-worst record
But this matchup is really all about the health of the players. Jimmy Butler has been the story of the playoffs, and his ankle injury had him visibly hobbled late in Game 1, which affected his ability to do anything. The reports have said he is receiving around-the-clock treatment ahead of Game 2, but we have seen numerous times this postseason how a player is ruled out just before the game starts.
So, it would not be surprising to see the Heat give Butler the game off, especially since they achieved their bare minimum goal of getting a road win to start the series. But there is another injury in this series beyond Butler, and that is Julius Randle’s unknown status for the Knicks after he missed Game 1. Randle was benched in the Cleveland series, so he has not been pulling his weight in the last week, but he was still a versatile player the Knicks could have used in a rough Game 1.
After scoring 32 points in the first quarter, the Knicks never topped 26 points in the final three quarters. New York was 7-of-34 from three (20.6%), including an 0-for-7 performance from Jalen Brunson, who scored 25 points the hard way on 23 shots.
The Knicks were plus-9 in rebounding, and they should have that advantage over Miami with their size and the way Mitchell Robinson can dominate the boards. He had 14 rebounds in Game 1. But the poor 3-point shooting and a poor job at the free throw line (12-of-20) doomed the Knicks in what was a very winnable game.
Let’s assume the Knicks, who were 3-1 against Miami in the regular season, can get better 3-point shooting in this one. Let’s assume Butler is limited or does not play at all.
The Heat have already lost Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo to injury this postseason. The team must shoot from long-range better if Butler is limited or inactive. That becomes harder to do without Herro. Kyle Lowry cannot be expected to put up 18 points every game. Gabe Vincent also stepped up with 20 points in Game 1 for Miami.
Brunson shot 41.6% from three this season. He is down to 23.7% in the playoffs. For as well as he has played in other areas, this scoring inefficiency is holding him back from a dominant series.
Remember, Miami was the lowest-ranked scoring offense in the regular season, and the Knicks were one of the top defenses. Miami has continuously relied on comebacks and the dominance of Butler to carry them. With the quick turnaround from Game 1, let’s go with the Knicks to even the series with a comfortable win.
NBA Pick: Knicks -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors (-5)
Leave it to the NBA to have a deep, wildly contested Western Conference race in the regular season, and then watch it come down to another round of Steph Curry vs. LeBron James ultimately deciding which team ends up in the Finals.
They will still have to go through another round and tough opponent before the Finals, but one legend here is moving a step closer to their fifth ring. We should not be surprised to see these two advancing their teams this far, but this is an unusual matchup of the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds in the Western Conference. There has not been a No. 6 vs. No. 7 playoff series in the NBA since the Rockets and SuperSonics way back in 1987. The No. 7 seed (SuperSonics) won that series in Game 6 too.
The Warriors are a 5-point home favorite in Game 1. Here are some notable records for this matchup:
- The Warriors are 28-15-1 ATS (65.1%) at home, the best record in the NBA.
- The Lakers are 11-5 ATS (68.8%) when getting 2-or-3 full days of rest between games. They played Friday night while the Warriors had to win a road Game 7 on Sunday.
- The Lakers are 20-23-1 ATS (46.5%) on the road, which ranks 19th in the NBA.
- The Lakers are 3-1 against the Warriors this season, but the only game where LeBron and Curry were both active was on opening night, a 123-109 win by Golden State at home.
- This season, the Warriors are 1-1 against the Lakers when Curry plays, and the Lakers are 1-1 against the Warriors when LeBron plays.
The LeBron vs. Curry angle will get overplayed here in their fifth playoff series against each other, but the truth is this may be the most evenly matched they were going into a series with the Warriors (-158 at FanDuel) slightly favored to advance before Game 1.
The last four LeBron vs. Curry series were all matchups in the NBA Finals between Cleveland and Golden State:
- 2015: With Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love injured, James did his best to keep the Cavaliers in a 6-game series before losing to the Warriors.
- 2016: Despite trailing 3-1, James and the Cavaliers rallied back to win the last three and win the championship over a Golden State team that set a record with a 73-9 finish.
- 2017: Enter Kevin Durant, who took over as Golden State’s best player and was outstanding on his way to winning Finals MVP.
- 2018: Durant again shined as Finals MVP as the Warriors swept James’ Cavaliers.
Without Durant interfering, it is a 1-1 split with LeBron getting the best of the individual star matchup each time. It is also worth pointing out that the Warriors and Lakers met in a play-in game in May 2021. The Lakers won 103-100 with James posting a 22-point triple-double. Curry, who was still missing Klay Thompson, scored 37 points in the loss.
James is clearly the superior player with the better career, but the two are meeting at an interesting time where LeBron’s age is catching up to him, and Curry still set a Game 7 record with 50 points Sunday in Sacramento. Curry also took more shot attempts (38) in Game 7 than in any of the first 1,022 games in his NBA career.
But for the first time, James may have the better team around him in this matchup. The Lakers shook off a terrible start to the season, dumped Russell Westbrook and some other pieces that were not working, and by February, they had rebuilt things with D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, and they have given Austin Reaves a bigger role.
It worked well against Memphis in the first round with the role players even outshining James, who shot 3-of-28 from three in Games 2-5 before doing a better job in the clinching Game 6. But the role players like Reaves and Hachimura shined in Game 1, and the whole team was beyond dominant with a 35-9 first quarter in Game 3, Russell may have saved the series with his run of threes in the fourth quarter of Game 4’s overtime classic, and LeBron’s teammates again had his back in a 40-point blowout in Game 6.
The other key is of course Anthony Davis, who can dominate the smaller Warriors every night in this series if he wants to. But Davis ran very hot and cold against Memphis with some games where he failed to even score 15 points. That takes some wind out of the sails of those games where he scored 30 and blocked a ton of shots. He has to bring it every game and especially step up as a rebounder with the way Kevon Looney embarrassed the Kings on Sunday with 21 rebounds, many coming on offense.
Davis could be the key to this series just because the Warriors lack an answer there. They have better shooters than the Lakers, who are an erratic offensive team, which could come back to haunt them in this series. The improvement of the Lakers has largely been on the defensive side of the ball this season:
- Before the All-Star break, the Lakers were 27-32 and No. 18 in Defensive Rating.
- Since the All-Star break, the Lakers finished 16-7 and No. 4 in Defensive Rating.
- In the playoffs, the Lakers are No. 10 in Offensive Rating and No. 1 in Defensive Rating.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are a fantastic home team and would be the worst road team ever for a champion if they pull this run off. But the key to that disparity where the Warriors finished 11-30 on the road was that they rank No. 28 in Defensive Rating on the road compared to No. 3 at home. It should not be possible to have a split that large, but it happened.
The Warriors also have won two road games in the first round in Sacramento, and the defense looked just fine against the No. 1 offense on Sunday. The Warriors have won a road playoff game in 28 straight series, an NBA record.
While Curry will not score 50 again in Game 1, you also cannot expect Klay Thompson to go 4-of-19 again or for Andrew Wiggins to miss so many easy baskets. This is why I like the Warriors to take Game 1 at home, but the Lakers absolutely have the talent and defense to make this another long and difficult series for the defending champions.
NBA Pick: Warriors -5 (-106 at FanDuel)
