By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA playoffs continue with an exciting trio of Game 3s this Thursday evening. With the teams changing venues, we look at the best spread pick for each game.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Brooklyn Nets (+4.5)
The 76ers lead 2-0 and have controlled play so far despite Joel Embiid not posting huge scoring numbers yet. In fact, the 76ers won a game without scoring 100 points in Game 2 (96-84) for the first time all season.
The Nets (+10) not covering in Game 2 was a travesty for Nets bettors, but the team, unfortunately, scored a season-low 84 points. The 76ers are now 6-0 against Brooklyn this season with four of the wins by at least 9 points.
Some notable records this season for this matchup:
- The 76ers are 13-8 ATS (61.9%) as a road favorite, the 6th-best record in NBA.
- The Nets are 7-8 ATS (46.7%) as a home underdog, a below-average record.
- The 76ers are 23-18 ATS (56.1%) on the road, the 5th-best record.
- The 76ers are 35-23-1 ATS (60.3%) as a favorite, the 3rd-best record and one of only two teams (Milwaukee, 63.5%) to cover over 60% of the time (min. 4 games).
- The 76ers are 28-16-1 ATS (63.6%) on equal rest, the 2nd-best record.
The Nets have a different lineup now than for most of the season, but it is hard to say it is a better lineup. The 76ers have just had the number of every iteration of the Nets this year, and we have not even seen the best Embiid and James Harden can play yet. The first two games show the difference in talent between these teams with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris also stepping up for the 76ers.
Historically, teams like Philadelphia, leading 2-0 with Game 3 on the road, are only 47-43 SU (.522) in Game 3 in the first round of the NBA playoffs. But the 76ers are that much better than Brooklyn, so this still has the potential to be a sweep. Take the 76ers to cover.
NBA Pick: 76ers -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
[ays_poll id=35]
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors (-5.5)
This series should be a fascinating case study for homecourt advantage. The Warriors were historically much better at home compared to the road where they were 11-30 this regular season. Make that 11-32 after dropping the first two playoff games in Sacramento.
For the first time in the Steph Curry era, the Warriors are down 2-0 in a playoff series. They also will not have Draymond Green in Game 3 after he was suspended for stomping on Domantas Sabonis in Game 2, for which he was ejected in the fourth quarter as well.
Green is a big loss as the Warriors are plus-13.1 in Net Rating with him on the court in the regular season and plus-11.0 in the playoffs. But playing at home is also a huge boost to the Warriors, especially on the defensive end.
Here are some notable records and stats for this matchup:
- The Warriors are 27-13-1 ATS (67.5%) at home, the best record in the NBA.
- The Warriors are 11-31 ATS (26.2%) on the road, the worst record in the NBA.
- However, the Kings are 27-14 ATS (65.9%) on the road, the best record in the NBA.
- The Warriors are 22-13-1 ATS (62.9%) as a home favorite, the 4th-best record.
- The Kings are 13-7 ATS (65%) as road underdogs, the 3rd-best record.
- With equal rest, the Kings are 25-13-1 ATS (65.6%), the best record.
- The Kings are 9-11 SU as a road underdog, tied for the 2nd-best record.
- Warriors at home in regular season: 33-8 (.805), No. 10 in Offensive Rating, No. 3 in Defensive Rating, No. 5 in Net Rating
- Warriors on road in regular season: 11-30 (.268), No. 11 in Offensive Rating, No. 28 in Defensive Rating, No. 23 in Net Rating
It is reasonable to conclude that the Warriors will not get their usual defensive boost at home with Green inactive, but the offense should still be consistent and effective. Steph Curry should also do better than the 3-for-13 he shot from distance in Game 2.
We could simply be seeing the end of an era or the last hurrah from this era of Golden State, but it is interesting to note what the oddsmakers think of this series. The Kings were a 1.5-point home favorite in Game 1, and they just pulled that game out 126-123. The Warriors were actually favored by 2 points in Game 2 to even the series, but the Kings won that one too 114-106.
Now the Warriors are a 5.5-point favorite at home despite Green’s suspension and a few other players (Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Gary Payton II) listed as questionable with injuries.
But we are going to give the Warriors one last benefit of the doubt and pick them to show up for this one and not fall into a 3-0 hole, which no team in NBA history has ever crawled out of in the playoffs.
NBA Pick: Warriors -5.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
[ays_poll id=36]
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Clippers (+2.5)
The Clippers had a chance in Game 2 of going up 2-0 in the series, but they were outscored 31-22 in the fourth quarter. Chris Paul returned to his role as closer, Devin Booker was fantastic with 38 points, and the Clippers turned the ball over on their last five trips down the court.
But if Russell Westbrook can shoot more like he did in Game 2 (9-for-16) than he did in Game 1 (3-for-19), then the Clippers have a chance as Kawhi Leonard has been fantastic for Los Angeles with Paul George out.
Here are some notable records for this matchup:
- The Suns are 12-7 SU (63.2%) and 11-8 ATS (57.9%) as a road favorite this season.
- The Clippers are 4-6 for both ATS and SU (40%) as a home underdog.
- The Clippers are 19-22 ATS (46.3%) and 23-18 SU (56.1%) as a home team this year.
You know things are looking up for the Suns when Chris Paul ended a 13-game losing streak in the playoffs with Scott Foster as the referee. But did Paul poke the bear when he needlessly bumped into Leonard after the game ended? Leonard has already been sharp in the series, and he is more than capable of taking a game over in this spot at home.
The Clippers are a veteran team with an above-average coach in Tyronn Lue. They can absolutely win this game if they shoot the three better after going 11-of-30 (36.7%) in Game 2.
After watching nine straight home teams win in the NBA playoffs, and after already taking favored Philadelphia (albeit on the road) and Golden State in the first two games on Thursday night, we will go with the Clippers to pull it out as the home underdog and take another lead in this series behind Leonard.
NBA Pick: Clippers +2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
[ays_poll id=38]
