By Scott Kacsmar
Elimination is already on the line as the Los Angeles Lakers trail the Denver Nuggets 3-0 in the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets are one win away from reaching their first ever NBA Finals, but the oddsmakers at top-rated sportsbooks are still going with the Lakers as the home favorite in Game 4. We are making our spread pick and our favorite player props for what could be the end of the road for Los Angeles.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-3)
The Lakers are a 3-point favorite in Game 4 with a total of 224.5 points. Here are some records and trends you should know for this matchup:
- Denver is 15-8 ATS (65.2%) as an underdog, the 3rd-best record in the NBA this season.
- The Lakers are 16-14 ATS (53.3%) as a home favorite this season.
- The Lakers have not lost four games in a row since Christmas.
- NBA teams are 149-0 in best-of-7 series when leading 3-0, including a 32-0 record in this round of the playoffs.
- The NBA team leading 3-0 and playing Game 4 on the road is 73-50 (.593) in that game, including a 12-9 (.571) record in the Conference Finals round, completing the sweep more often than not.
- When trailing 3-0 in a best-of-7 series, the Los Angeles Lakers are 0-7 in Game 4.
- LeBron James has been swept twice in his career, though they were both in the NBA Finals against the 2007 Spurs and 2018 Warriors.
- Denver is 5-2 against the Lakers this season, but Game 3 was the first time in 7 meetings where the road team won.
- The Nuggets had the No. 1 ranking in Offensive Rating this postseason (118.7), and they have been even better in this round (120.9).
- The Lakers had the No. 1 ranking in Defensive Rating this postseason (106.5), but that number has shot up to 120.9 against Denver.
If you are a Lakers fan, you are likely feeling sick over this series as each game has been there for the team in the fourth quarter.
In Game 1, the Lakers cut a big deficit into a 3-point game multiple times in the final minutes. LeBron James had a poor finish with a missed game-tying 3-point shot, a bad turnover, and another missed 3 in a 132-126 loss.
In Game 2, the Lakers missed 10 shots in a row in the second quarter, allowing the Nuggets to get back into the game. Denver started the final quarter trailing 79-76, but Jamal Murray caught fire with 23 points in the fourth quarter to lead the Nuggets to another win at 108-103. This time, it was Anthony Davis missing a 3 and LeBron failing at the rim in the final minute of a close loss.
In Game 3, the Lakers had to feel confident after trailing 58-55 at halftime despite Murray going off for 30 points. But the rest of the Nuggets were not playing as well, and the Lakers seemed to have slowed down Nikola Jokic. Unfortunately, Jokic caught fire in the fourth quarter and scored 15 of his 24 points, and the Nuggets went on a 13-0 run in the fourth to steal another game away from Los Angeles.
While sweeping a team sounds difficult, it really is the expected result when a team is up 3-0. The Warriors were unable to do it last year in the Western Conference Finals up 3-0 on the Mavericks, but overall, teams up 3-0 do win on the road in Game 4 over 59% of the time.
For the Lakers, can you really count on D’Angelo Russell when he is shooting 29.6% from the field in this series? Anthony Davis has been too up and down all postseason. LeBron has shown his age in this series and cannot take over games like he used to. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura are doing well to earn future paydays in this league, but they cannot seem to play transition defense well enough to slow down this Denver machine.
The Nuggets knew they had a constant in Jokic in this series, and he has not disappointed with 27 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 11.3 assists per game. But he is getting the help too as Jamal Murray is averaging 35 points per game and shooting 45.5% from 3. You can usually count on two of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., and Bruce Brown to play well too for Denver.
Denver continues to play the disrespect card, and even up 3-0, it likely will keep that up as an underdog in this game. The heart might say Lakers have been close and will find a way to get a win at home, but the Nuggets have simply been the best team in the conference this year, and they have been the better team in all three games. Let’s go with the Nuggets to cover and likely complete the sweep in this one.
NBA Pick: Nuggets +3 (-110 at FanDuel)
Player Prop Picks
This series has been pretty good for the 3-point shooters as Denver is making 41.4% from deep and the Lakers are getting consistency from Austin Reaves at least. The No. 1 offense has been outdoing the No. 1 defense in this matchup, so keep that in mind as we look at our favorite player props for Game 4.
Austin Reaves (Lakers) – Over 17.5 Points
After 15 playoff games, Reaves is averaging 16.9 points while shooting 44.2% from 3-point territory. At this point, it is hard to say he is a fluke in this offense. Reaves has scored 22 or 23 points in four straight games now.
The great 3-point shooting is likely to cool down, but he is not afraid to take those shots as a third-leading scoring option on a team that is getting nothing offensively from D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schroder, and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Reaves seems to rise to the moment this postseason. He had 23 points in a Game 1 win over Memphis, and he had 23 points in the pivotal Game 4 overtime win in that series. He had 23 points in the Game 6 win to eliminate Golden State, and he has been consistently productive against Denver’s defense.
With LeBron scoring in the lower 20s these days, and the inconsistency with Anthony Davis, Reaves should be a good value pick to bet the over for in this one.
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Over 9.5 Assists
Jokic finished Game 3 with 8 assists, breaking his 6-game streak of going over 10.5 assists. Jokic has been piling up assists in this series, but a little bit of foul trouble and a slow start limited his output in Game 3.
Jokic’s teammates also shot just 8-of-17 on his potential assists according to NBA.com, and he is used to going over 50% in that stat. If the Denver offense can continue playing at a high level, he should have little trouble getting into double-digit assists once again to go along with his all-around stellar play in this series.
Rui Hachimura (Lakers) – Over 4.5 Rebounds
It may be too late, but the Lakers may finally realize Hachimura needs to be on the court as much as possible. He has five games this postseason with more than 26 minutes on the court, and three of them are in this Denver series, including 2-of-3 games where he played over 30 minutes.
In Game 3, Hachimura played 33:44, his second-most minutes played in any game this season. According to NBA.com, he had 6 rebounds on 13 chances, which is not a great success rate, and he even deferred 3 rebound chances to teammates.
In all three home playoff games where Hachimura played at least 22 minutes, he had 5 or 6 rebounds. He has to play frequently and play well in this game if the Lakers are going to continue their season. He should be able to get over 4.5 boards.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets) – Over 1.5 Made Threes
The former Laker seems to be taking this series personally. He has gone over 1.5 made 3s in four straight games, and he is coming off one of his best performances in Game 3 where he made 4-of-7 from distance.
Not every big shot can go to Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. tends to run hot and cold and is also coming off a hot game. We trust KCP more to deliver his best shots to try eliminating the team he won a championship with in 2020.
LeBron James (Lakers) – Over 0.5 Blocks
If you like props that hit 80% of the time recently, then you have to like LeBron registering a block in 12-of-15 playoff games this year. He did not have a block in Game 3, but that feels like even more reason to think he’ll add one to the highlight reel in this game.
He may go out without a win in this series, but James should get a block and be very active in this game as he does his best to keep the season going.
