Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets (-6)
Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets begins Tuesday night. We are making our spread pick and going over our favorite prop picks for this exciting matchup.
The Nuggets are a 6-point home favorite in Game 1. Here are some relevant records and statistics from this season on this matchup:
- Denver is 30-16-1 ATS (65.2%) as a home team, the 2nd-best record in the NBA.
- Denver is 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) as a home favorite, the 4th-best overall record, and the 2nd-best record min. 4 games.
- The Lakers are 16-21-1 ATS (43.2%) as a road underdog, the 9th-worst record.
- Denver is 14-6-1 ATS (70%) with a rest advantage, the best record in the league.
- The Lakers, who had one fewer day to prepare than Denver, are 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%) with a rest disadvantage.
- While none of the matchups have been since early January when the Lakers were a much different lineup, the season series is split 2-2, and every game was decided by 11-plus points.
- The home team is 4-0 in the season series.
- Denver is No. 1 in Offensive Rating this postseason (118.7).
- Los Angeles is No. 1 in Defensive Rating this postseason (106.5).
This should be a very interesting series with both teams playing well this postseason. If Denver has a disadvantage, it would be that Nikola Jokic is basically the only player it can depend on to show up every night. While the Lakers have seen up-and-down play from Anthony Davis this postseason, the fact is the Lakers have two Hall of Famers who can deliver huge games on any given night in this series. The Nuggets only have one.
However, the Nuggets just won a 6-game series with Phoenix despite Devin Booker and Kevin Durant doing big things. The goal was to make sure no one else did anything. The Lakers have better depth than Phoenix as any one of Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Dennis Schroder can go off for the team. If the Lakers win the championship, they’ll also remember one special fourth quarter from Lonnie Walker IV after he scored 15 points to beat the Warriors.
The Lonnie Walker IV Game. pic.twitter.com/1J9ub7VP3r
— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) May 10, 2023
The Nuggets have role players who can certainly star on a given night, but they need Jamal Murray to be more consistent to win this series. He had some cold shooting games against Phoenix, though Jokic was so great, and players like Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope stepped up to make their presence felt.
We made it this far without naming LeBron James by name, but the 38-year-old is still very relevant with 30 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists in a clinching game against Golden State. We tend to take LeBron’s greatness for granted. His 30-9-9 game in Game 6 was the 25th such playoff game of his career. The next three closest players in NBA history have 25 such games combined, though Jokic is in that conversation as well.
The Nuggets have been the best offense this postseason, and they have the lowest turnover rate and highest rebound rate. The Lakers have thrived on defense with Davis blocking shots like a madman, and they have been No. 3 in Defensive Rating in the league since the All-Star break.
This should be a long series with plenty of twists and turns. But for Game 1, a well-rested Denver team should be a good bet. The Nuggets are 6-0 at home this postseason with a +13.9 Net Rating. The Lakers are 2-4 on the road with a -7.6 Net Rating.
Since 2007, the home team is 14-2 in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. With LA’s erratic offense coupled with Denver’s rest and altitude advantage, let’s go with the Nuggets to cover in Game 1.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -6 (-112 at FanDuel)
Player Prop Picks
Game 1 has a total of 222.5 points. Here are five of our top player prop picks for this matchup.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets) – Over 9.5 Points
Is it really a revenge game when the player in question is just KCP? The former Laker has had some choice words about what he’s seen from Los Angeles this year, but now he gets his chance against them in a huge playoff series.
Caldwell-Pope was great in his last game with 21 points, his most production this postseason. But he has gone over 9.5 points in 7-of-11 playoff games this year.
KCP also has gone over 9.5 points in both regular-season meetings with the Lakers when he had 13 and 16 points. He had 9 points in both of the road meetings, so hopefully, for over-bettors, he finds that extra basket at home where he averages 11.1 points per game this year.
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Under 9.5 Assists
This may come off as a cute play, but consider that Jokic has played in 10 playoff series, and he has only gone over 6.5 assists in Game 1 one time. Even this season, Jokic had 6 assists against Minnesota and 5 assists against Phoenix in easy Game 1 wins.
Maybe there is a method here as he gets comfortable as a scorer and rebounder first before distributing the ball later in the series. In fact, Jokic has gone over 9.5 assists in 12-of-59 playoff games in his career, and only one of those 12 games was a Game 1 or Game 2.
In four games against the Lakers this regular season, Jokic had 16, 9, 8, and 6 assists, so he was under 9.5 in 3-of-4 games.
Let’s go with another under in this Game 1 as the Nuggets feel the best defense and depth they have faced this postseason by a wide margin.
Austin Reaves (Lakers) – Over 3.5 Rebounds
Reaves was great in Game 6 against the Warriors with 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists. His rebounding has been solid this postseason, and he has gone over 3.5 boards in 9-of-12 playoff games.
Reaves did not play many minutes against Denver in the regular season when the Lakers had different rotations earlier in the year, but he still pulled in 76.9% of his rebound opportunities according to NBA.com.
He is averaging 4.8 rebounds per game in the playoffs and is converting 54.3% of his chances. He also is third on the team in chances behind only Davis and James. This should be an easy number for him to hit in a game we are projecting to favor the defensive side.
Jamal Murray (Nuggets) – Over 2.5 Made Threes
Murray has been on the injury report with a non-COVID illness, but it was an issue he played through last week just fine. Now he had five days to get over it, so hopefully he should be just fine for Game 1, because the Nuggets are going to need him at a high level in this series.
Fortunately, Murray snapped out of his cold shooting slump in Game 6 by making 4-of-7 from 3 to eliminate the Suns. It ended a 4-game stretch where Murray failed to go over 2.5 made 3s.
Can he do it in back-to-back games? Murray has already done that twice this postseason with all the games at home too where he sinks 40.8% of his 3-point shots this year.
Murray went over 2.5 made 3s in 2-of-4 games against the Lakers in the regular season. After watching Klay Thompson go from eviscerating the Lakers in Games 1-2 to a total disappearing act the rest of the way, it would be nice to see Murray come out strong in this one and easily hit over 2.5 3s.
LeBron James (Lakers) – Over 0.5 Blocks
LeBron has registered a block in 10-of-12 playoff games this year for a great hit rate in recent games. In the regular season, he only had a block in 25-of-55 games (45.5%), but you can say the 38-year-old is being more aggressive in the postseason with the stakes higher.
James did not have a block in his three regular-season matchups with Denver this year, but we are looking for him to continue his playoff hot streak and get at least one here.
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