By Scott Kacsmar
Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics begins Wednesday night. This is a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, a 7-game series won by Boston. We have our spread pick and are going over our favorite prop picks for Game 1 below.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (-8)
The Celtics are an 8-point home favorite in Game 1. Here are some relevant records and statistics from this season on this matchup:
- Boston is 54-41 ATS (56.8%), the 3rd-best record in the NBA this season (playoffs included).
- Miami is 39-53-3 ATS (42.4%), the 4th-worst record, but no team has been better in the playoffs with an 8-3 spread record.
- Boston is 26-20 ATS (56.5%) as a home favorite, the 12th-best record.
- Oddly, Miami is 5-14-1 ATS (26.3%) with a rest advantage, the worst record in the league.
- Miami is 7-2 ATS as an underdog of 7-plus points.
- Boston is 8-10 ATS as a favorite of 7-to-8.5 points.
- These teams split the season series 2-2, but Miami won the last two meetings, including a 98-95 game in the most recent meeting in January.
The Heat have been the surprise team this postseason, though we did see this team go to the NBA Finals in 2020 after beating Boston, and they were in a tight Game 7 with Boston last year in this round. Jimmy Butler was just off on an ill-advised 3 in Game 7 with the Heat down 98-96 with 16 seconds left.
These teams know each other well, and Butler’s strong play is what generally powers the Heat through these tough matchups. Miami is 7-1 this postseason when he scores at least 25 points.
Butler only played in 2-of-4 meetings in the regular season against Boston, and in his only road trip to Boston this season, he had a season-high 15 rebounds to go along with 25 points in a 4-point win.
Miami is likely going to rely on playing things close into the fourth quarter and leaning on Butler again. The team already has several double-digit comeback wins this postseason. In clutch situations, the Heat have a +17.0 Net Rating according to NBA.com, which is better than the +11.8 Net Rating for Boston. In the regular season, Miami was No. 2 in clutch situations with +14.7 Net Rating compared to No. 8 for Boston (+4.6).
But both teams have shown they can go against the grain from regular-season expectations. The Heat started this postseason on fire with at least 119 points in every game against Milwaukee before playing a lower-scoring series with the Knicks. The Celtics played a high-scoring series with Atlanta and actually allowed at least 119 points in five straight games before a lower-scoring series with the 76ers.
Butler averaged 25.6 points per game against Boston last postseason, though he also dealt with an injury during that series. He had games with 35, 41, and 47 points in that series.
Jayson Tatum left no doubt he is still Boston’s best player with a record 51 points in Game 7 against the 76ers on Sunday. Tatum has certainly been more inconsistent than Butler this postseason, though he has more help around him as the Heat are still missing Tyler Herro with broken fingers. Tatum averaged 25 points per game against Miami last postseason, though he also had just 10 points in a loss at home, so you never know what he is going to give you.
The Heat have some streaky 3-point shooters like Max Strus and Gabe Vincent who can make or break a game. They also have veterans like Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo with plenty of playoff experience. This is a tough team to beat this time of the year, and an 8-point spread is well within reach against a Boston team that is 2-3 over its last 5 home games.
The Celtics should win the series and return to the NBA Finals, but let’s go with Miami to keep interesting and get the cover in Game 1.
NBA Pick: Heat +8 (-108 at FanDuel)
Player Prop Picks
Game 1 has a total of 210.5 points. Here are five of our top player prop picks for this matchup.
Jaylen Brown (Celtics) – Over 24.5 Points
We built up Butler and Tatum, but the scorer to trust in Game 1 is Jaylen Brown. He has gone over 24.5 points in 47-of-67 games (70.1%) in the regular season, an excellent hit rate, and he has done it in 6-of-13 playoff games.
We’ll assume Tatum will draw some extra attention off his 51-point game, and we could expect some regression there, so Brown may have to carry the day again. Brown also has been consistent against Miami, scoring 37, 26, and 28 points in his last three meetings against the Heat.
Another reason to like Brown here is that Miami allowed the most points per game to opposing small forwards in the regular season according to FantasyPros.
Malcolm Brogdon (Celtics) – Over 3.5 Assists
Brogdon only had 4 assists in 3 games against the Heat in the regular season this year. However, his teammates were just 4-of-18 on his potential assists according to NBA.com, an abysmal success rate. Look for some positive regression in this matchup as Brogdon continues to be a key bench contribution for the Celtics this postseason that they did not have a year ago.
Brogdon only had 2 assists in Game 7, but it was an unusual game for Boston as the Celtics were held to 18 assists with Tatum leading the way with 5 assists. Look for more assists in this one. Look for more production from Brogdon.
Jimmy Butler (Heat) – Over 6.5 Rebounds
Butler has gone over 6.5 rebounds in 5-of-10 playoff games, so we are talking about a coin flip. But he also had a season-high 15 rebounds in his only game in Boston this season. He also had 7 rebounds in his other matchup with the Celtics, and he had 9 rebounds in each of Game 6 and Game 7 against Boston last postseason.
Butler has converted a strong 22-of-32 rebound opportunities (68.8%) against Boston this year. We are looking at this game as one for Butler to get buckets and boards, so his over in rebounds looks like the best bet as Bam Adebayo is too unreliable for the Heat.
Marcus Smart (Celtics) – Over 2.5 Made Threes
We are going against the grain on this one. Smart has gone over 2.5 made 3s in 5-of-6 road playoff games this year. However, he has gone under 2.5 made 3s in 7-of-7 home playoff games.
In the regular season, Smart was 3-for-14 from 3-point territory against Miami. But he was open or wide open on all 14 shots according to NBA.com. He just has to get some to fall.
Last postseason, Smart made 5 3s against the Heat in the first game he played in the series, and he had 3 from deep in Game 7. Let’s go for him to reverse the home-road split and hit over 2.5 3s at home in Game 1. The Heat also allow the 4th-most made 3s to opposing point guards this season.
If you do not trust Smart, you can double up on Jaylen Brown props with him going over 2.5 makes, but this should be a good value pick as we look for players beyond the usual suspects to deliver buckets.
Bam Adebayo (Heat) – Over 0.5 Steals
Not only does Bam Adebayo have over 0.5 steals in 8-of-11 playoff games, but he has over 1.5 steals in 4 games so far. Both teams have been pretty solid at not turning the ball over a lot this postseason, but Adebayo has active hands and has registered a steal in 70% of the Miami games this season.
Adebayo had a steal in all 6 games against Boston in the 2020 Conference Finals. Adebayo had 4 steals in the first game played in Boston in last year’s Conference Finals. Just one here would suffice.
