By Scott Kacsmar
For the first time in NBA history, we could see two sweeps in the Conference Finals, a round that was created in 1971. The Denver Nuggets already swept the Los Angeles Lakers last night, and the Miami Heat are one win away from returning to the NBA Finals for the sixth time under head coach Erik Spoelstra, which would tie him for the 3rd-most Finals appearances as a head coach.
The Celtics are limping into this game after being criticized for quitting on Game 3 with a 30-point deficit entering the fourth quartering a 128-102 loss. The Celtics played four reserves for the full 12 minutes of the final quarter. Now they must win to extend the season against a Miami team they have lost five meetings in a row to.
We have our spread pick for Game 4 and our favorite player props for what could be another sweep before the NBA Finals start in June.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat (-1.5)
After being so undervalued by the bookmakers this postseason, the Heat are finally a favorite in this series for Game 4 at 1.5 points with a total of 216.5 points. Here are some records and trends you should know for this matchup:
- Miami is 21-31-3 ATS (40.4%) after a win this season, the 4th-worst record.
- Boston is 17-15 ATS (53.1%) after a loss this season, the 11th-best record.
- Miami is 20-27-2 ATS (42.6%) in home games, the 3rd-worst record.
- Boston is 26-22 ATS (54.2%) in road games, the 7th-best record.
- Miami is 22-38-3 ATS (36.7%) as a favorite, the 2nd-worst record.
- Boston is 8-1 ATS (88.9%) as an underdog, including a 6-1 record as a road underdog, the best record in the NBA.
- Miami is 11-3 ATS (78.6%) this postseason with six comeback wins from a double-digit deficit.
- Boston is 8-8 ATS (50%) this postseason, but the Celtics have been better on the road (4-3) than at home (4-5).
- NBA teams are 150-0 in best-of-7 series when leading 3-0, including a 33-0 record in this round of the playoffs.
- NBA teams leading 3-0 with Game 4 at home are 14-4 (.778) in Game 4, so the sweep is usually what happens in series like this.
- The Celtics have not lost four games in a row since May 2021.
- Boston has failed to make more than 11 3-point shots in the last three games – the longest streak for the team since doing so in Games 4-7 against Miami in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.
That last point is a key one as the Heat have simply not allowed the Celtics to get their 3-point shooting offense going. This is on the heels of a regular season where Boston was No. 2 in the NBA in made 3s per game (16.0). It is a vital part of Boston’s success, but the Celtics are shooting 29.2% from 3 in this series.
Almost everyone is struggling from 3 for Boston against Miami, including Jayson Tatum (25%), Jaylen Brown (10%), Marcus Smart (30%), Malcolm Brogdon (25%), and Al Horford (23.1%). About the only player doing well is Derrick White (56.3%), who is 9-of-16, but he was not put back into the starting lineup until Game 3, replacing Robert Williams to give the Celtics more shooting.
Game 3 is probably a sore subject as the Celtics were thoroughly blown out well before the fourth quarter. In a virtual must-win game, no one stepped up to score even 15 points for Boston. It was an abysmal showing, and the Heat were red hot on the other side with 19-of-35 shooting from 3 (54.3%). That is the second time in this series and the fifth time during the season in which Miami shot over 50% from 3 in a game.
At least one can realistically assume the Heat will regress in Game 4 and Gabe Vincent will not be dropping 29 points again. Unfortunately, the Heat seem to have too many players capable of going off in any given game, and players like Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, and Max Strus are all good candidates to step up for the Heat. This is in addition to Jimmy Butler always being a threat, and Bam Adebayo has played very well and aggressively for the Heat in this series.
This is not the most confident defense of backing Boston in Game 4 but hoping for regression with Miami’s 3-point shooting and whacky postseason filled with comebacks is at least something. ESPN’s analytics team was clearly way off when it said the Celtics had a 97% chance of winning this series prior to Game 1, but Game 3 blowout aside, the first two games were there for the taking for Boston. The Celtics are also 8-1 SU when the spread is a 1-point favorite or up to a 2-point underdog this year.
Perhaps as a pick to root for more basketball before June 1st, let’s go with the Celtics to finally get a win and avoid the historic double sweep. We will get to Jimmy Butler vs. Nikola Jokic in the Finals eventually, but for one more night, let’s see an underdog cover. Besides, the Heat do better when they are not the favorite.
NBA Pick: Celtics +1.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Player Prop Picks
If we are picking the Celtics to bounce back, then we need to see more out of the offense and the 3-point shooting. That means more assists too as the Celtics have not topped 25 assists in any game in this series.
Max Strus (Heat) – Over 11.5 Points
With the heroics of Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin in the last two games for the Heat, another undrafted player, Max Strus, has been a bit forgotten. Strus had a solid Game 1 with 15 points, but he has been held to 11 and 10 points over the last two games with those other role players blowing up.
But Strus is one of the best shooters on the team and he shoots 43% at home compared to 39.2% on the road this season. Strus has gone over 11.5 points in 7-of-14 playoff games and 40-of-80 regular-season games, so he is a coin flip for this line. But before these last two games, he had gone over 11.5 points in six straight games before these explosions by Martin and Vincent. Look for the Celtics to do a better job with those players and the Heat can get an extra basket or more from Strus to hit his over.
Jaylen Brown (Celtics) – Over 3.5 Assists
Brown is really struggling as he shoots 37.7% from the field and 10% from 3 in this series. He is only averaging 16.7 points per game after averaging 24.6 points against the Hawks and 76ers in the first two rounds.
Maybe it is time for Brown to start passing the ball more and setting up his teammates instead of forcing so many bad shots. Brown has done his share of passing in this series, but his teammates have not delivered as they only made 10-of-24 potential assists (41.7%) according to NBA.com. In the regular season, Brown’s teammates made 52.5% of his potential assists.
Brown had 5 assists in Game 1 but has only equaled that amount in the last two games combined. With the Celtics needing their best effort, let’s go with Brown to exceed that line of 3.5 assists. Jayson Tatum is a safer pick for over 4.5 assists, but Brown could be the better value pick.
Caleb Martin (Heat) – Over 4.5 Rebounds
In Game 3, the Celtics had a ridiculous 21-1 edge in offensive rebounds and were plus-22 overall in rebounding. But they still lost by 26 points, becoming the second team in NBA history to be plus-22 in rebounds and still lose by more than 25 points. It turns out that missing a lot of shots and getting offensive boards so you can miss more shots is not a great winning strategy in the NBA.
But we also want to benefit from this information for Game 4 as we expect the rebounding edge to regress in favor of Miami. More boards for the Heat, especially if the Celtics play a smaller lineup with less Robert Williams.
Caleb Martin had another great effort in Game 3, but his rebounding left a lot to be desired as he only came down with 3-of-13 opportunities according to NBA.com. He also deferred two rebound opportunities to teammates. It was the first home game this postseason where Martin did not have over 4.5 rebounds. He has gone over 4.5 rebounds in 7-of-14 games in the playoffs with some very strong home-road splits. Martin is home, he’s locked in, so let’s count on him to do much better than 3-of-13 at getting rebounds in Game 4.
Malcolm Brogdon (Celtics) – Over 1.5 Made Threes
The NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award winner, Malcolm Brogdon is having a tough series after he was great against the 76ers. Brogdon only played 18 minutes because of the blowout nature of Game 3, but he still failed to score a single point, a first for him this season.
Brogdon has been a very good 3-point shooter for Boston this year, but he is 1-for-8 from 3 over the last two games. He is also 2-for-11 on open or wide-open 3-point shots in this series according to NBA.com.
With Jaylen Brown shooting so terribly, Brogdon is a good value pick to get multiple made 3s in this game. The Celtics are going to need a few players to do that, but Brogdon is in an ideal spot to come off the bench and make up for going scoreless in his last outing.
Al Horford (Celtics) – Over 0.5 Blocks
In his long pursuit of an NBA championship. Al Horford is likely as frustrated as anyone with the Celtics down 3-0. But the soon-to-be 37-year-old still has a shot to do something miraculous, and he will need to be a force defensively as his shot has just not been there on offense this postseason.
But Horford has had multiple playoff games with 5 blocks this year. He also has 9 games with multiple blocks. Horford has registered a block in 11-of-16 playoff games (68.8%) and 36-of-63 regular season games (57.1%) this year.
