The NBA Playoffs are finally here after a grueling 82-game regular season. Thankfully, we only had a few games postponed and affected by Covid after two seasons dramatically altered. It was refreshing to have some normalcy again in the 2021-2022 NBA season.
This postseason should be different to past years. There’s no LeBron James or superteams hovering over the rest of the league looming as an inevitable winner. The parity across the league makes things less predictable and more fun for bettors and serious fans.
As the NBA Play-In Tournament wrapped up on Friday night, we now know exactly the matchups moving forward. The top-seeded Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat have some work to do in order to defend their regular season crown. The pathway to the NBA Finals is a long one but legacies will be changed forever during this run.
We’re breaking down each of the 2022 NBA Playoff first round series at 365Scores and providing a series bet to go with each. We’ll start with the top seeds and work our way down to the four-five matchups.
No. 1 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 8 New Orleans Pelicans
Freshly off a thrilling comeback on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers, the Pelicans are trying to ride their momentum to give the Phoenix Suns a challenge. Even if Zion Williamson returns, it’s going to take a miracle or injury. The Suns are this year’s strongest roster and powerhouse.
Phoenix has fully embraced the strategy of dominating on midrange shots. They’re second in the NBA in percentage of points coming from two-pointers, but 25th in points from threes and 15th in points in the paint. Either their zig to the league’s zag is genius and will pay off like it has in the past for the San Antonio Spurs, or a team will expose their lack of deep shooting volume and the math will win out.
It won’t be a problem in this series, though. As well as Brandon Ingram has played and the potential scoring of C.J. McCollum, New Orleans has a bottom-10 defense. This is a massive issue considering New Orleans is an elite rebounding and steals team, and ranks highly in opponents second-chance points. They can’t get stops in the half-court, a death knell against Phoenix.
This series is more about Phoenix staying healthy and avoiding unnecessary games. They have one of the strongest profiles possible, ranking in the top-three offensively and defensively. The majority of regular season teams to accomplish this since the 1960s have won the NBA title.
Pick: Suns to win in 4 (+200)
No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 8 Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks won both of their play-in tournament games to earn the right to face the No. 1 seed Miami Heat. Their impressive comeback win against Cleveland highlighted their ability to hit deep shots when they needed it most, and they clamped down on the Cavs early in the fourth quarter to spur a big run. That type of timely playmaking must continue against the NBA’s fourth-best defense.
Atlanta is a volatile team thanks to their high three-point shooting percentage. Their reliance on getting to the free throw line and scoring from beyond the arc makes them a tough out, but also they can fall completely flat when the whistle isn’t going their way. Trae Young is an incredible creator but there’s been lulls this season when the unit has stagnated without his brilliance.
This series may be the perfect one for Miami. For as much as Young will spread their defense thin and challenge them, the Hawks’ defense is bad enough to solve Miami’s slumbering offense. Outside of being more efficient than any other team on a league-average number of threes, the Heat have to grit and grind their way to wins.
Atlanta will throw out their two most balanced lineups for as long as they can. The quartets of Young, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and then either Kevin Huerter or John Collins are winning their minutes by 14 and 12.8 points, respectively. The Hawks can get away with sacrificing some of their already limited defense with Miami but their only pathway to win is pushing Miami’s defense beyond their capabilities.
It’ll be tough to achieve. Zero of Miami’s top-five most-played lineups have a defensive rating over 101.8, and each have a net rating over 8.8. It’ll take either Milwaukee, Brooklyn, or maybe Philadelphia to knock out a high-floor Heat team. Atlanta simply doesn’t have the consistency or balance to achieve it.
Pick: Heat to win the series (-370)
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 7 Minnesota Timberwolves
If you weren’t paying close attention to the NBA regular season, it may come as a surprise that the Memphis Grizzlies not only went 56-26, but they did so with star point guard Ja Morant missing 25 games. The Grizzlies thrived even without him thanks to a deep roster that produced some of the NBA’s most effective five-man rotations. Memphis is one of just a few that doesn’t need to cut their playoff rotation since they have so many ballers.
Two of their top lineups this season didn’t even feature Morant. The combination of Steven Adams, Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Dillon Brooks produced an 8.6 net rating with a 2.15 assist to turnover ratio. Swap out Jackson for De’Anthony Melton and the lineup was even better in half the minutes, nabbing a net rating of 20.2. Again, the assist to turnover ratio is high, with a 3.06.
Inserting both Morant and Jackson into the equation of course helps the Grizzlies as the competition and stakes rise. Both are healthy and available, and will be key factors against another young upstart team in Minnesota.
The Timberwolves can give the Grizzlies all they can handle on the offensive end of the court. Their best four-man lineup is of course their core of Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and Patrick Beverly. It’s been a massive storyline how Beverly has helped shape KAT’s defensive efforts, but also how role players have developed into worthwhile pieces.
Forward Jarred Vanderbilt is featured in every top lineup for the Wolves thanks to his athleticism, defense, and rebounding prowess. He never needs the ball and therefore fits perfectly with more ball-dominant players. The Wolves’ top four 4-man lineups all include Vanderbilt.
These teams split their season series 2-2, with only one blowout back in late November. This will be a close series. The Grizzlies will win thanks to their depth and consistency, but watch for the variance Minnesota brings with their deep shooting. They attempt more threes per-game and are better from the free throw line and from three.
Pick: Grizzlies to win the series (-330) and to win in 6 games (+215)
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Brooklyn Nets
It’s unusual to be uncertain about a high seed in any given year, but the Brooklyn Nets were able to finally get healthy and star guard Kyrie Irving cleared to play without a Covid shot. The Nets have been on fire when Irving plays thanks to his fresh legs and explosive scoring ability. It’s not surprising that an offense with Irving and Kevin Durant have the Nets with the third-best NBA title odds despite their record and seeding.
Irving has shot 47 percent from the field, 41.8 percent from three, and 91.5 percent from the line in 29 games. His creation ability and impact has been dramatically more helpful than James Harden’s when Irving was away from the team. I think it’s fair to wonder whether Harden would have asked out if he knew Irving would come back to play and perform this well.
Regardless, the Nets are a tough team to rely on any data for. Their current best form has limited sample sizes but their rotation is also clear. Irving and Durant play best with Seth Curry, a big man such as Nic Claxton or Andre Drummond, and Bruce Brown.
Brooklyn is bad on defense more often than not and their lack of depth makes their margin for error thin. But with a healthy core, Boston is in trouble. This is a coin-flip series for me.
The emergence of both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown into more well-rounded and consistent stars is huge. Boston has often thrived in the regular season because of their depth, and that gets negated in the playoffs as rotations shorten and weaknesses are exposed. The loss of Robert Williams is enormous though when you look at how the Celtics will defend Brooklyn.
For as much of a professional as Al Horford is, he’s 35 and has been cooked thoroughly by Irving-led offenses in the past. Is Daniel Theis really going to swing this series?
He might. Boston’s defense is excellent and their second-half run has been nothing short of incredible. However, I think the lack of consistent offense and difference in starpower will play a role, and the Nets win a grueling series.
Pick: Nets to win the series (+110)
No. 3 Golden State Warriors vs, No. 6 Denver Nuggets
This might be the best “game within a game” series in the first round. The Denver Nuggets have no real shot to win this series based on comparing the individual talent of both teams, but they have Nikola Jokic playing well enough to earn his second-straight MVP. Golden State has also not been as sharp since mid-February due to injuries.
Denver won the season series 3-1 but the Warriors didn’t have Draymond Green for each matchup. Green is obviously imperative to defending Jokic, who ranks in the 91st percentile on points per possession in the post, and 96th percentile on mid-range shots. Kevin Looney is a good defender but not enough to slow Jokic full-time.
Jokic is incredible but so is Steph Curry. Curry hasn’t quite performed as well this season and that’s going to be an issue later in the playoffs if it continues. But his supporting cast is still strong enough to push this team over the top against a mediocre Denver team down their second and third best players.
Even if Klay Thompson and Curry aren’t to their normal standard, the depth on Golden State is once again impressive. Jordan Poole is very good and a key member in each of the Warriors’ top lineups. Rookie Jonathan Kuminga and veteran wing Andrew Wiggins have also been shockingly efficient and effective on both sides of the ball.
Denver can’t compete with the wing depth and high-level defense Golden State brings. The Warriors rank third in half-court defense, first in assist percentage, and are bombing away shots from three. The games should be entertaining but this isn’t going to be a long series.
Pick: Warriors to win the series (-250), and to win in 5 games (+275)
No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 6 Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls were a heckuva story for the first half of the season. Their offense, ranked in the top-10 of most important categories, was able to beat the high expectations thanks to DeMar DeRozan’s career season. DeRozan became an ace in the fourth quarter and took over as the best playmaker ahead of Zach LaVine.
The bad news is the Bulls have been trending downwards as the season has progressed and are facing a powerful Milwaukee team. Chicago has won just five games since February 24th and two came against a sulking Cavs team. Losing Lonzo Ball for the season and missing Alex Caruso for stretches of the year exposed just how critical it is for the Bulls to have a premier primary ball defender at the point.
The lack of depth on Chicago was always the concern, and the worst-case scenario happened as everyone but DeRozan, LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic have missed significant time. It’s forced role players to step up beyond their comfort zone. A fully-healthy Bulls team could challenge some of the other teams in the East but the Bucks are the last team they should want to face.
Milwaukee has also dealt with injuries but has seen stellar performances from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday in particular. Giannis continues to improve in all facets, and it’s scary to see how well he is mastering the game. The defensive numbers have slipped a bit for the Bucks but I think that’s more of a post-championship hangover than anything. This team locks in when they need to.
Milwaukee’s defense is dead last in three point shots allowed, a concerning number as they continue in the playoffs but not as much against Chicago. The Bulls ranked last in three point attempts and favor mid range shots for their offense. This will be a bloodbath of a series as the Bulls will play into the Bucks’ hands and simply don’t have an answer for Giannis.
Pick: Bucks to win the series (-1000) and in 4 games (+250)
No. 4 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
On the surface, everything in Utah looks just fine even if they slid to the fifth seed in this years’ playoffs. They finished seventh in points per-game and 10th in points allowed per-game. Their offense revolved around taking the second-most threes in the NBA and converting at the second-highest rate of field goals.
This recipe has been the same throughout the Donovan Mitchell-Rudy Gobert partnership, but this year has been less successful. Mike Conley has been good but more of a role player, and the rotation hasn’t been as effective running other second teams off the floor as 2021. The lone four-man unit that ranks especially well in notable minutes that doesn’t feature Mitchell is the grouping of Conley, Gobert, Rudy Gay, and Jordan Clarkson.
Maybe the regression was normal after a brutally bad end to the last two playoffs. The human element is hard to account for, and both Mitchell and Gobert have made statements that are poking each other about their play style. This team is stagnant, and this is their last chance to push through before Danny Ainge makes major changes.
Utah’s ability to transcend what they are within their system always plays a factor in the playoffs. Mitchell has responded well in the past when he has to go off-script, and he’ll have to do that again. But it may not be against Dallas because Utah is a high-floor team.
Dallas is only a threat if Luke Doncic plays this series. He has no timetable to return from his calf strain, complicating this series projection. A healthy Doncic gives Dallas a shot against almost any team, and especially a rigid one like Utah. Getting major contributions from Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie go a long way in Dallas reaching their own upside.
Let’s assume Doncic plays for the sake of interest. This grinding offense has slowed their pace down under Jason Kidd, actually dead last in the NBA. This helps cover for a mediocre defense with multiple lacking individuals, but it also led to the 24th-ranked offense. Dallas shoots fairly efficiently, 19th in three-point percentage but fifth in field goals. But their low number of possessions and turnovers forced limit their upside.
The best pathway for Dallas to win is to out-star Utah and rely on their slow-paced attack to keep them close. The Mavericks simply don’t have another path. Everything they do well, the Jazz do similarly or better. But there is more scoring upside in Doncic, Brunson, and Dinwiddie than the Jazz personnel outside of Mitchell.
Pick: Jazz to win the series (-300)
No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors
This is the series that may create more hot takes and have a bigger impact on the 2022 free agency period more than any. With James Harden hitting the market this summer after a disappointing regular season stint with the Sixers, anything is possible if the team goes south against the North.
Harden has shot just 40 percent from the field and 32.6 percent from three despite solid assist to turnover ratios. He’s been third-wheel to Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, which is fine as long as Maxey continues to play at the high-level he’s achieved in the second half of the year. Maxey’s blazed a 48.5 percent field goal rate and almost 43 percent from three.
The pick-n-roll game between Harden and Embiid will be fascinating. The Raptors will rely on budding star defensemen Chris Boucher and Precious Achiuwa to lock down the action, and he ranked as one of the better individual pick-n-roll defenders in the NBA. Achiuwa allowed 1.08 points per possession in the action, but going back to their last matchup against Philadelphia revealed that Harden no longer had the burst to get around him.
The two lineups the Sixers need to rely on include the trio of Harden, Embiid, and Maxey. That’s not surprising. The fourth individual between Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle doesn’t matter. When it’s one of those two sharing the court with the Sixers’ big three, their lineups wreck their foes by almost 17 points.
Toronto will need to outperform their own talent level in order to win the series but they’re scrappy enough to annoy the Sixers. They’re not an analytically strong team, ranking average or slightly worse in key shooting metrics on offense and defense in field goals, three pointers and free throws. They rank 25th in pace, explaining some of their limited net differential numbers, but their lack of starpower and depth really shows in the numbers. The Sixers will match their slow pace, ranking 26th.
The Raptors can only win if Harden has his usually terrible playoff performance and both Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are at their best. There’s a pathway to that, but the Raptors’ short seven-man rotation lacks shooting compared to the Sixers. And when the Sixers have an MVP candidate like Embiid in the prime of his powers, it’ll be too much for the Raps to overcome.
Pick: 76ers to win the series (-180) and to win in 6 games (+240)
