By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA playoffs continue with another trio of Game 2s this Wednesday evening. We are going over our favorite over/under player prop picks in each game, including some looks at defensive stats like steals and blocks.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis guard Ja Morant is considered a game-time decision, so that can throw off some of the stats in the game if he ends up not playing. For now, Morant does not have any prop lines posted, leaning towards him not being available for the game.
Austin Reaves (Lakers) – Over 15.5 Points
With all the stars on the court in Game 1, Austin Reaves stole the show in the fourth quarter with his “I’m him!” moment and he snatched the post-game interview on ABC. Not bad for your first playoff game, chipping in 23 points and solid defense.
We will avoid the 3-point shooting markets for Reaves and just bank on him to go over in points again. He has gone over 15.5 points in 5-of-6 games and 10-of-14 games coming into Game 2. Reaves is averaging 18.0 points per game since the All-Star break in February.
Reaves falling flat in Game 2 would not be surprising after such a memorable Game 1, but he has scored 17, 17, and 23 points in his three games against Memphis this year. He needs to keep doing what he has been doing for nearly two months to hit this over.
Anthony Davis (Lakers) – Over 13.5 Rebounds
This sounds like a lot of rebounds after Davis had 12 rebounds in Game 1, but he had games with 22 (season-high) and 19 rebounds against Memphis in the regular season. He also does not have to worry about Steven Adams, Memphis’ best rebounder who is out for the series.
In Game 1, Davis actually only pulled in 12 of his 25 rebound opportunities (48%) according to NBA.com. He usually gets over 60% of those chances on the season. In a game with two of the five fasted-paced offenses in the NBA, there should be plenty of rebounding opportunities for Davis again.
Desmond Bane (Grizzlies) – Over 2.5 Made Threes
With or without Morant, Desmond Bane must do a better job shooting than he did in Game 1 when he was 6-of-18 overall and 3-of-10 from three.
Bane is an excellent 3-point shooter, making 42.5% of his attempts in the regular season and 47.3% in the playoffs in his career. So, a 3-of-10 performance for Bane is uncharacteristic, especially at home.
It may be worth noting that Bane with Morant on the court (+.048 in 3P%) is much more efficient at shooting the three than Bane with Tyus Jones on the court (+.010 in 3P%). But we only need over 2.5 threes to hit the over here. Bane has done that in 33-of-59 games (55.9%) this year.
Anthony Davis (Lakers) – Over 2.5 Blocks
Davis was dominant in Game 1 with 7 blocks, including 3 blocks in the first quarter alone. The 7 blocks were 3 more than Davis’s previous career high in a playoff game, but his line in this game is only 2.5 blocks.
Davis has gone over 2.5 blocks 20 times this year, so this is not asking for a career performance by any stretch. He can do this against a Memphis team that likes to go to the basket. Only the Thunder had more field goal attempts per game than Memphis (25.3) on drives to the basket according to NBA.com. Davis can fill up the block sheet again in this one.
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Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The biggest injury news of the night is that Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful with a back injury that knocked him out of Game 1. We are going to assume he does not play in this game.
Jrue Holiday (Bucks) – Over 21.5 Points
The Bucks finished with 117 points in Game 1 even though Giannis was injured in the second quarter. But the player who did not step up as a shooter was Jrue Holiday, who finished 6-of-18 from the field with 16 points. He had 16 assists as his teammates shot an absurd 16-for-17 on those plays, but we need to see better shooting from Holiday himself.
Holiday has had some big games over the years for the Bucks, and he needs to do it again here as Khris Middleton is unlikely to repeat his 33-point performance in Game 2. Holiday has had two 24-point games against Miami this season. Count on Holiday to score at least in the mid-20s to help the Bucks try to even the series.
Jimmy Butler (Heat) – Over 28.5 Points
Butler was fearless in Game 1 with 35 points on a season-high 27 field goal attempts. He should be aggressive again without Giannis blocking the paint and with Miami shooter Tyler Herro out with broken fingers.
“Playoff Jimmy” needs to make another appearance to see if he can give the lowest-scoring team in the league a 2-0 lead against the top seed. Butler has gone over 30 points twice in his trips to Milwaukee this season.
Jimmy Butler (Heat) – Over 5.5 Rebounds
Embrace Playoff Jimmy in Milwaukee. Butler only had 5 rebounds on 15 opportunities (33.3%) in Game 1, including zero contested rebounds according to NBA.com. He usually does better than that.
In fact, 40.3% of Butler’s rebounds are contested this season, and he pulls down 58.9% of his rebound opportunities. This is a good spot for positive regression in a game where Antetokounmpo will not be there to collect many rebounds for the Bucks. Butler should easily clear 5.5 rebounds for Miami.
Khris Middleton (Bucks) – Over 6.5 Assists
This pick is about regression and the matchup. We pointed out above that the Bucks shot 16-of-17 on Jrue Holiday’s potential assists in Game 1. That is not going to sustain itself in Game 2, but neither should the vast differences in shooting for Middleton and Holiday, or that Middleton’s potential assists were 4-for-10.
Basically, we are banking on more scoring and fewer assists for Holiday, less scoring and more assists for Middleton in Game 2. There is also the fact that the Heat allow the most assists per game to small forwards this season.
Max Strus (Heat) – Over 2.5 Made Threes
The Heat are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA, so it was a shock to see them put up 130 points in Game 1. They also did it with Max Strus scoring 8 points after his big 30-point game in the play-in tournament against Chicago. But Miami has volatile players like that who are just not consistent save for Jimmy Butler.
With Herro out for Miami and a quiet Strus game over the weekend, look for him to get back on track with his 3-point shooting and go over 2.5 made threes. He has done that in 37 games this season, though he is 0-for-5 at doing it against the Bucks, who allow the fewest made threes to small forwards this season.
But in an NBA season that has defied logic, we are going contrarian and picking Strus to go over here.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
No injuries to worry about in this series so far – knock on wood – but we do have to hope it is not another blowout like Game 1 was.
Mike Conley (Timberwolves) – Over 13.5 Points
With Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns struggling for Minnesota, veteran guard Mike Conley could be a player to step up in Game 2. He only took 5 shots in Game 1, his fewest in any game he played at least 10 minutes in this season.
But Conley made 3-of-5 shots, including a pair of threes. He could be a solid scorer in the high teens in this game if given the chance. Conley scored at least 17 points in 4-of-5 games to end the regular season and looked like one of the offense’s best players in the Play-in tournament.
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Over 8.5 Assists
The ease of Denver’s 29-point win in Game 1 did not lead to a big stat night for Jokic, but that will come in this series. Even in 28 minutes, he managed 13 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists in Game 1.
But the assist numbers have been huge for Jokic against Minnesota this season. He has games with 16 and 13 assists against the Timberwolves, who allow the most assists per game to centers according to FantasyPros.
In Game 1, Jokic’s teammates were only 6-of-14 on his potential assists according to NBA.com, so they can certainly do better. But if he is getting 14 opportunities set up in 28 minutes, then he will put up double-digit assists soon enough in this series.
We like him to go over 8.5 assists in Game 2.
Jamal Murray (Nuggets) – Over 4.5 Rebounds
Murray’s first playoff game since the 2020 bubble was a smashing success with 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists. He is a strong prop play in this one again as the Timberwolves really struggle at giving up rebounds to backcourt players.
In Game 1, Murray collected on 8-of-14 rebound opportunities according to NBA.com. The Timberwolves allow the third-most rebounds to point guards and the second-most rebounds to shooting guards this season. We will take Murray for a handful in this game.
Bruce Brown Jr. (Nuggets) – Over 0.5 Made Threes
Brown did a good job off the bench by going 2-of-4 from three in Game 1. Brown has gone over 0.5 made threes in 52-of-81 games (64.2%) this season, so he is better than a coin flip.
Brown is also shooting 39.6% from three at home compared to 31.3% on the road this season.
Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves) – Over 1.5 Made Threes
Lest we forget, Karl-Anthony Towns has missed 53 games this season. He missed all four regular-season games against Denver, so Game 1 was his first crack at this defense and things went very poorly with 5-of-15 shooting, including 1-of-7 from three.
But KAT has gone over 1.5 made threes in 18-of-30 games (60%) this season. He should be able to bounce back from an ugly Game 1 and sink a pair of threes in this game after going 1-for-5 on open threes.
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