By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA playoffs continue with a trio of Game 2s this Tuesday evening. We are looking at our favorite over/under player prop picks in each game. Do not overlook the markets for steals and blocks as players pick up their defensive intensity in these playoff games.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Clint Capela (Hawks) – Over 9.5 Points
Capela was 6-of-8 for 12 points in Game 1, his 49th double-digit scoring game in 66 games this year (74.2%). That is an excellent hit rate even if the Celtics allow the 7th-fewest points to centers according to FantasyPros.
In three games against the Celtics this year, Capela finished with 7, 12, and 12 points. He may not exceed the mark by much, but in a series where Trae Young is likely to be inefficient, the Hawks need all the easy baskets they can get with Capela getting into the paint.
De’Andre Hunter (Hawks) – Over 3.5 Rebounds
For rebounds, we are looking at the player tracking data found on NBA.com to find players who underachieved in the previous game with a low rebound rate and/or deferred multiple rebound opportunities to opponents.
The player who stands out best here is Atlanta’s De’Andre Hunter, who finished with 3 rebounds in 29 minutes in Game 1. He was just 3-of-8 in rebound chances and deferred a couple of times. He also had six straight games where he played at least 20 minutes with over 3.5 rebounds to end the regular season.
Hunter has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 40-of-67 games (59.7%) this year. Let’s trust him to go over here.
Trae Young (Hawks) – Over 8.5 Assists
Young will have to do better than the 16 points he scored in Game 1, but a bigger key to Atlanta having success will be if the teammates are scoring well too. Young’s teammates were 8-of-15 on his potential assists in Game 1, his fewest assists in three games against Boston this year. Young had 9 and 13 assists in the other two meetings, so he has always been in the ballpark of this 8.5 number against Boston.
With Young going over 8.5 assists in 51-of-74 games (68.9%) this season, we will take our chances with a better offensive game from the Hawks leading to another over for him in Game 2.
Marcus Smart (Celtics) – Over 1.5 Steals
Smart had 3 steals in Game 1 to lead the Celtics. He has gone over 1.5 steals in 31-of-62 games this year, so it is a true coin flip. But Atlanta’s guards can get sloppy with the ball, and Smart is one of the best defensive nuisances in the game. This is another good opportunity for him to hit his over in steals.
Trae Young (Hawks) – Over 1.5 Made Threes
In Game 1, the Hawks made just 5-of-29 threes while every Boston starter made multiple threes. This sounds like regression to the mean coming, so fade some of the three-point shooter props for Boston players and take the over on Atlanta.
But the Atlanta shooters leave a lot to be desired in a tough matchup. Many have plus odds as it is unlikely for them to hit several threes in this game. That is why we will gladly take the odds on Young to go over 1.5 made threes after he shot 1-of-5 in Game 1.
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Darius Garland (Cavaliers) – Over 7.5 Assists
Garland finished with a season-low 1 assist in Game 1, but it was not for a lack of trying. His teammates were just an embarrassing 1-for-13 on his potential assists according to NBA.com. This screams regression for Game 2, and I would take his over to hit. Garland has gone over 7.5 assists in 37-of-70 games (52.9%) this season.
Also, Garland had 9 assists on March 31 against the Knicks. His teammates will not brick everything again.
Caris LeVert (Cavaliers) – Over 8.5 Points
One of the reasons the Cavaliers are down 0-1 in this series is that the bench was poor in Game 1. The bench only scored 14 points, and Caris LeVert was the main culprit as he shot 1-of-7 from the field.
To make it sound worse, LeVert was 0-for-5 on shots where the closest defender was 4-to-6 feet away, which is defined as open on NBA.com. In the last 12 games of the regular season that he played, LeVert averaged 15.8 points per game and was 12-for-12 at going over 8.5 points. That stretch included a 15-point game against the Knicks on March 31.
Let’s trust LeVert to contribute much more bench scoring in this one and take his over.
Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Under 3.5 Rebounds
In five meetings this season, Brunson has always finished with 2 or 4 rebounds against the Knicks. Saturday’s Game 1 was the first time he had 2 rebounds in a road game against Cleveland this year, but the Cavaliers have the best-rebounding numbers against opposing point guards according to FantasyPros.
With Brunson so occupied with trying to be the scorer for the Knicks in this series to keep up with Donovan Mitchell, we like the low rebound numbers to sustain. Brunson has gone under 3.5 rebounds in 7-of-9 games coming into Game 2.
Isaac Okoro (Cavaliers) – Over 0.5 Made Threes
Nothing is ever really a “lock” in the NBA, but if you want a great regression pick, go with Isaac Okoro to hit a three in Game 2. He was 0-for-4 in Game 1, including 0-for-3 on wide-open three-point shots. Can you see how Garland’s teammates were 1-for-13 on his assists, now?
Okoro has failed to make a single three in 4-of-5 games coming into Tuesday, but he has shot 36.3% from three this season, and he has gone over 0.5 made threes in 41-of-77 games (53.2%).
Darius Garland (Cavaliers) – Under 1.5 Steals
Garland had 4 steals in Game 1, or one more than he had in three games combined against New York this season. This was out of character for Garland and the Knicks. He only goes over 1.5 steals in 28-of-70 games (40%) this season.
The Knicks allow opponents a league-low 6.0 steals per game, so they usually protect the ball better than they did in Game 1. We will count on the regression to hit here too and take under 1.5 steals for Garland.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) – Over 28.5 Points
Did you forget about Kawhi Leonard since he has been injured in recent years? This is the same Leonard who went over 28.5 points in his first seven playoff games with the Clippers in 2020.
Who needs Paul George when you have one of the best playoff performers of his era? The absence of George (knee) does make it harder for the Clippers to win, but it should continue doing wonders for his scoring production as he takes games over.
Leonard was fantastic in Game 1 with 38 points. This is his time of year. He has gone over 30.5 points in his last three playoff games. He can certainly make it two in a row in this series. Take his over.
Deandre Ayton (Suns) – Over 10.5 Rebounds
This is about who wants it more. Deandre Ayton was woeful at getting big rebounds late in the game. In fact, Ayton had a single contested rebound for the Suns while Ivica Zubac had 7 contested rebounds in Game 1 according to NBA.com.
Ayton only delivered on 8-of-18 rebound chances. We will take him to bounce back in a big way and go over 10.5 rebounds.
Devin Booker (Suns) – Over 1.5 Made Threes
Speaking of the Suns who need to step up, Devin Booker was 0-for-3 from three-point territory in Game 1. He can be a streaky shooter, but it would not be like him to go back-to-back playoff games without multiple threes made.
Let’s look for Booker to be more aggressive and bury a pair of threes in this game for the Suns.
Kevin Durant (Suns) – Over 5.5 Assists
A lot of attention is spent on Durant losing his team’s last 7 playoff games, but he still is averaging 30.3 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists during this 0-7 run.
Durant was a rebound shy of a triple-double in Game 1, but the 11 assists seem to be an afterthought. He has 8, 9, and 11 assists over his last three playoff games. He does not need that many in this game, and his teammates were 11-of-15 on his passes to set up assists on Sunday.
That rate should cool down, but over 5.5 assists is a very doable line for Durant in this one.
Russell Westbrook (Clippers) – Over 1.5 Made Threes
Westbrook is an easy punchline to a joke these days, but despite his 3-for-19 shooting performance in Game 1, he made the signature defensive play late in the game against Devin Booker.
Before Sunday, Westbrook was shooting better to end the regular season. In fact, Westbrook was shooting 56% from three in the final six games. He made multiple threes in 5-of-6 games.
In Game 1, Westbrook was 1-of-10 on open shots and 1-of-5 on open threes. If the Suns are going to continue giving him space, he is bound to start hitting again. If you do not trust the threes enough from him, you could always substitute this pick with Westbrook over 17.5 points as he has done that in half of the 10 games since Paul George was injured.
