By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA playoffs continue with a trio of Game 5s this Tuesday evening. We are looking at our favorite over/under player prop picks in each game, including points, rebounds, assists, made threes, steals, and blocks.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
The Celtics can win the series at home after splitting a pair of high-scoring games in Atlanta. Hawks guard Dejounte Murray is suspended for Game 5, opening more opportunities for other guards.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (Hawks) – Over 15.5 Points
With Murray suspended, Bogdan Bogdanovic could be one of the best opportunity plays in this game. He already has seen his line jump to 15.5 points, and he is one of the best 3-point shooters on the team.
Bogdanovic had 18 points against the Pistons a month ago in a game where Murray was out. In December, there were four games where Bogdanovic played with Murray inactive, and he scored 31, 28, 17, and 28 in those games.
In this series, Bogdanovic had 18 points in Game 2 in Boston. With the Hawks facing elimination without Murray’s 25.3 points per game in this series, Bogdanovic will have to step up in this spot.
Al Horford (Celtics) – Over 1.5 Made Threes
Horford was scoreless in Game 4, something he only did once in the regular season this year. Two days later, he scored 14 points and sank 4-of-4 from three. Horford has 46 games this season with multiple threes made, including each of the first three games in this series.
Going back home after a scoreless game, this is a perfect spot for Big Al to hit a couple of threes as the Celtics look to wrap things up.
Malcolm Brogdon (Celtics) – Over 3.5 Assists
Brogdon comes off the bench for Boston, but he really does make the most of his 25.2 minutes per game in this series. The Celtics are +29 with Brogdon on the court in this series.
Brogdon has 8, 5, and 4 assists in the last three games. In Game 2 at home, he only made 25 passes and his teammates were still 8-of-8 on his potential assists according to NBA.com. In Game 4 in Atlanta, Brogdon made 23 passes in 23 minutes and his teammates were 4-of-7 on his potential assists.
It does not take much for him to go over 3.5 assists, and his playmaking ability is a welcome addition off the bench.
Robert Williams (Celtics) – Over 7.5 Rebounds
Our assumption is the Celtics will win this game at home, leading to more missed shots by the Hawks and a win in rebounding for Boston. Robert Williams has been coming off the bench and averages 23.2 minutes per game in this series. But he played his most minutes in Game 4, snagging 15 rebounds in 28:53. He also had a whopping 22 rebound opportunities to lead the team.
Maybe this is a game that can get out of hand and Williams can get his conditioning work in with more minutes as the Celtics are going to need him for this playoff run. Williams also had 8 rebounds in Game 1 in 21:40 played. Look for him to go over 7.5 boards in this one as the Hawks have been inconsistent at rebounding with their big men in this series.
Marcus Smart (Celtics) – Over 1.5 Steals
Marcus Smart is a great nuisance in this Boston lineup. He had 3 steals in each of the first three games before a bagel in Game 4 on the road. He has 33-of-65 games this season with over 1.5 steals, so he is slightly better than a coin flip to do it.
But Smart has not gone consecutive games without a steal since November. Look for him to get back in that stat column in this game, and with Atlanta playing desperation ball without a good ball handler in Murray, count on Smart to create multiple steals.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
This series has seen a 40-point game from Jamal Murray, Anthony Edwards, and Nikola Jokic had the latest one with 43 points. But what happens next with the Timberwolves facing elimination in Denver?
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Over 8.5 Assists
It should be a matter of time before the Nuggets win this series, but Game 4’s loss was the kind of performance that makes you worried about this top seed should it face a team with multiple Hall of Famers like the Lakers, Suns, or Warriors.
What happens when Nikola Jokic has to go full MVP mode and score a ton of points because the supporting cast is not stepping up? He did not have to do that in Games 1-3, but we saw it in Game 4 when he had 43 points, and his teammates were only 6-of-12 on his assists.
But look for that to change back in Denver. Jokic will score less but get his assists up to the 9 or 12 he had in the previous two games of this series.
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) – Over 28.5 Points
Edwards has been on a scoring run with 41, 36, and 34 points in the last three games. He had the 41 in Denver too, so the altitude is not going to bring him down. His threes are starting to fall again, and he is stepping up since Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert will not.
If the Timberwolves are going down Tuesday night, let’s hope Edwards goes down swinging. Last year when his team was eliminated in the first round by Memphis, Edwards took a series-high 24 field goal attempts and scored 30 points. That sounds like a good formula to hit his over in this matchup too.
Jamal Murray (Nuggets) – Over 2.5 Made Threes
In a rare instance, Jokic was the majority of his team’s 3-point shooting in Game 4 as the Timberwolves often left him alone from deep, so he hit a handful. But Jamal Murray (2-for-7) and Michael Porter Jr. (2-for-6) had poor nights from three.
Take Murray to bounce back better at home, because he was 0-for-3 on wide-open threes according to NBA.com. He also was 10-of-20 from three in Games 1-2 at home compared to 3-for-13 on the road in Games 3-4.
Mike Conley (Timberwolves) – Over 2.5 Rebounds
Conley has not had over 2.5 rebounds since he had 4 rebounds in Game 1, but this is a regression pick. Over the last two games, Conley has snatched just 4-of-17 rebound opportunities for an abysmal 23.5%. His regular-season rate with Minnesota (22 games) is 56.5%, so he was really bad at getting to rebounds at home in this series.
With over 2.5 rebounds in almost half of his games this year, look for Conley to have his best rebounding game since Game 1.
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) – Over 1.5 Steals
We already have Edwards playing aggressively with scoring while facing elimination, so it would only make sense if he can get some steals too. He has gone over 1.5 steals in 6-of-10 playoff games the last two years, including five straight games.
In two regular-season trips to Denver this year, Edwards had a single steal. But the playoffs are a different level of intensity, and we have already seen him get 4 steals in Games 1-2 in Denver. Look for him to grab another pair.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns
Kawhi Leonard (knee) has already been ruled out for the third-straight game, so it could be up to Russell Westbrook again to save the season for the Clippers against the talented Suns. This has been a great series for 30-point scoring efforts with Leonard, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Westbrook, and Norman Powell all having at least one so far.
Russell Westbrook (Clippers) – Over 25.5 Points
Would there be anything more Russell Westbrook than for him to take 25-plus shots on the road in an elimination game as a heavy underdog? Westbrook played great in Game 4 with 37 points after posting 30 points in Game 3 without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George available.
This is who he is, a volume shooter who needs to get as many shots as he can. But even with Leonard active in Game 2 in Phoenix, Westbrook still had 28 points in that game too. Amazing stuff after he shot 3-of-19 in Game 1, but we will count on him to lead the Clippers in scoring in this potential series-ending game.
Chris Paul (Suns) – Over 4.5 Rebounds
Chris Paul started this series with 11 rebounds in Game 1, but he has finished with 4 rebounds in two of the last three games. However, he has only collected 10-of-24 rebounds (41.7%) over the last two games, which is down from his regular-season rate of 61.1%.
Basically, we are saying Paul is due for a rebound bump. With the Clippers facing elimination on the road in a game Phoenix should win, we like Paul to get over 4.5 rebounds.
Norman Powell (Clippers) – Over 2.5 Assists
Powell only has 18 games this season with over 2.5 assists, but you have to remember he often has to share the ball with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They are gone, so it is the Westbrook and Powell show for the Clippers.
In Game 4, Powell’s teammates were just 1-of-7 on his potential assists according to NBA.com. We are hoping for some positive regression here with a game script that should lead to more buckets for players not named Westbrook for the Clippers if they want to extend their season.
Chris Paul (Suns) – Under 1.5 Made Threes
Paul finally had a good shooting game from 3-point territory in Game 4, hitting 3-of-6. He was 2-for-11 in the series before that, so he had more makes in Game 4 than the first three games combined.
This is why we like him to cool down in this one and get back to his mid-range game, leaving the 3-point shots to Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. Paul only made over 1.5 threes in 27-of-63 games (42.9%) this year, so the odds favor him not doing it in back-to-back games here.
Russell Westbrook (Clippers) – Over 0.5 Blocks
It would not be the full Westbrook experience if he did not block a shot in this game. He has at least one block in every game this series, including 5 blocks in the two games played in Phoenix.
Westbrook also has a block in 8-of-10 games coming into Tuesday night. With the way Booker likes to go to the basket, Westbrook could find himself in a position for another good block to help his team out any way he can.
