By Scott Kacsmar
After a couple of nights of blowouts, the NBA playoffs bring back a doubleheader this Friday evening. We are looking at our favorite over/under player prop picks in both games, including points, rebounds, assists, made threes, steals, and blocks.
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
It has been a wild series with James Harden and Jayson Tatum combining for 84 points in Game 1 before combining for 19 points in Game 2. Let’s see if the 76ers can get more offense by going home for Game 3 where they are still a 2-point underdog.
Tobias Harris (76ers) – Over 14.5 Points
You have several players in need of a bounce-back scoring game here in Harden, Tatum, and Joel Embiid. But the No. 4 scorer on the 76ers has been arguably the most consistent offensive player for either team this postseason when it comes to hitting this line.
Tobias Harris has scored over 14.5 points in all six playoff games, and he has shot at least 50% from the field in all but one game this postseason. He has gone over 14.5 points in 4-of-6 games against Boston this season.
It is a mark he only hit 50% on in the regular season, but his game has been solid for the 76ers in a postseason where Embiid has been hurt, and the 76ers have failed to score more than 102 points in 4-of-6 games. Despite this, Harris is still hitting 15 points every game, and if the 76ers are going to put up a fight in this series, he better do it again at home here.
Harden has been erratic, and Embiid has not been scoring with his health this postseason. Put it on Harris to get the job done, or you can go with over 1.5 made threes if you are worried he will finish just shy of 15 points.
James Harden (76ers) – Over 2.5 Made Threes
Not everyone in the NBA runs as hot and cold as Anthony Davis for the Lakers, but a lot of players are giving us a rollercoaster with their statistics. James Harden went from 7-of-14 from 3-point territory in Game 1 to 0-for-6 in Game 2.
Harden hit over 2.5 made threes in 34-of-58 games (58.6%) in the regular season and in 3-of-6 games (50%) in the playoffs. He has done it in 4-of-6 games against Boston.
With the 76ers needing more points to keep up with Boston’s offense, let’s give The Bearded One a shot at redemption and to hit his over 2.5 made threes.
Malcolm Brogdon (Celtics) – Over 3.5 Rebounds
Brogdon has been one of the best bench players this postseason. He had his best game on Wednesday night with 23 points and 6 rebounds in just over 24 minutes of action in the blowout win.
Brogdon has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 4-of-8 playoff games for the Celtics. He also had games with 4 and 7 rebounds in his two trips to Philadelphia this season.
Overall, Brogdon has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 43-of-75 games (57.3%) this season, including playoffs.
James Harden (76ers) – Over 7.5 Assists
In two games, Harden’s teammates are 10-of-20 on his potential assists according to NBA.com. He was the leading scorer and aggressive Game 1. He was just not successful in any manner in Game 2 as the whole offense struggled. Harden has 10 assists in two games against Boston here, but he had 10, 8, 11, and 7 assists in the four regular-season meetings with Boston.
The Celtics just allowed five straight games of at least 119 points, tied for the second-longest streak in playoff history, prior to this Game 2 domination.
Our game script involves the 76ers having a much better offensive game, and that needs to include Harden being a distributor who racks up assists again with Embiid, Maxey, and Harris playing well. Take the over 7.5 assists.
Joel Embiid (76ers) – Over 1.5 Blocks
The Celtics had 66 points in the paint in Game 1, the most by any team in the last two postseasons. But with Embiid back in Game 2, he at least provided some resistance at the rim early in the game, finishing with 4 blocks.
Embiid has gone over 1.5 blocks in all four playoff games he has played this year. He also had multiple blocks in both home games against the Celtics this season. We will trust him to do it again at home here as his defense should be back before his shot is after two weeks out of action.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
The Nuggets controlled play at home to take a 2-0 lead as the Suns have struggled to get their 3-point shooting down. Chris Paul is out with a groin injury for Game 3 and perhaps longer. The Suns are in must-win mode at home and are a 4-point favorite.
Cameron Payne (Suns) – Over 10.5 Points
NBA injuries are difficult as anyone who played Kevon Looney in Game 2 last night can attest to. Reports are grim for Chris Paul playing in Game 3 with the groin injury that forced him to leave Game 2, so we will go with the assumption – and what is available at sportsbooks 12 hours before game time – that he is out this game.
It opens an incredible opportunity for value with Cameron Payne, the backup point guard who has shined at times in Paul’s absence the last few years. Payne has been injured recently too and rarely plays as the Suns rely heavily on starters. But Payne can get the job done with ease here. In his last start, he scored 13 points in 15 minutes.
In games where Payne plays at least 20 minutes this season, he has gone over 10.5 points in 15-of-19 games. He is 11-for-13 when he plays at least 25 minutes.
Again, lock it in early if you can, but if Paul is replaced by Payne in the starting lineup, then this should be a good pick as the Suns have not been getting much from the future Hall of Famer anyway. Maybe Payne could provide a spark here.
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Over 7.5 Assists
Jokic has been held to 5 assists in back-to-back games in this series. He was held under 5.5 assists in just three games in the regular season, so this is the first time it has happened in back-to-back games since Games 2 & 3 against Golden State in the first round last year.
Jokic had 15 and 9 assists in two regular-season games against Phoenix this year, so it is not like the Suns have the magic formula for holding down his passing. Jamal Murray was just the star in Game 1 and Jokic went scorer in Game 2 with 39 points.
Overall, Jokic’s teammates are 10-of-20 on his potential assists through two games of this series. We feel like he is due for a big assist night, and this could be a high-scoring game in Phoenix. Take the over as Jokic should get better play from his scorers than he did in Game 2.
Deandre Ayton (Suns) – Over 9.5 Rebounds
The Suns need Ayton to step up more in this series against Jokic. While the two-time MVP is grabbing a ton of rebounds for Denver, Ayton is doing a good job on the boards when he is in position. He has collected 15-of-20 rebound opportunities (75%) in this series according to NBA.com.
But we need to see him get double-digit rebounds like he did twice in regular-season matchups against Denver. Ayton also went over 10.5 rebounds in four straight games to close the previous series, so he is capable of doing it consistently. The Suns will need it if they want to avoid falling in the 0-3 abyss.
Ayton also averages 10.2 rebounds per game at home compared to 9.7 on the road this season.
Jamal Murray (Nuggets) – Over 2.5 Made Threes
Again, the hot and cold NBA playoffs continue. Murray was Game 1’s star with 6-of-10 shooting on 3-point shots, which followed a good game against Minnesota when he was 5-of-9 from three.
But in Game 2, Murray was 0-for-9 from three despite many good looks at the basket. Murray was 0-for-8 on threes when the nearest defender was 4-plus feet away, which is considered open in the NBA.
We will gladly take the over and the regression to the mean to hit here.
Devin Booker (Suns) – Under 1.5 Steals
Booker had multiple steals in 4-of-5 games against the Clippers in the first round, though that team was playing without its two best players. Booker has just 1 steal in the two games against Denver so far, though it is reasonable to think the Nuggets turn it over more on the road with Phoenix in desperation mode.
But Booker only has over 1.5 steals in 9-of-39 career playoff games (23.1%). This feels like a game where he could go full scorer mode as the Suns are going to need it with some of Kevin Durant’s struggles and the way Denver has done what it wants to this defense. Let’s go with the under in steals for Booker.
