By Scott Kacsmar
After an off day, the NBA is back in action this Wednesday evening with a big 13-game slate. With so many games to choose from for your prop bets and DFS lineups, we are switching things up and looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
NBA DFS – Points Over/Unders
Luka Doncic (Mavericks) – Over 34.5 Points vs. Magic
One night, potentially very soon, you are going to bet Luka Doncic to go under 30 points and it’s going to work out beautifully. But Wednesday night is probably not going to be that night.
Doncic has scored at least 30 points in the first nine games this season, but he also had a season-high 44 points against Orlando. That happened despite Doncic shooting 2-of-9 from three and 8-of-14 from the charity stripe, so it could have been an even bigger game for him.
Just expecting any player to drop 35 points night after night is something reserved for vintage Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant seasons, but it was just four years ago in the 2018-19 season that James Harden had a 32-game streak of 30-point games, second in NBA history behind Wilt Chamberlain’s incredible 65-game streak in 1961-62.
Doncic is the Dallas offense right now and Orlando is not going to be the team to end this streak. It also helps that Dallas has played nine games and only managed to win two by more than four points and one win by double digits, so Doncic usually has to play out the fourth quarter.
Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) – Over 19.5 Points vs. Nuggets
Indiana’s young guard is off to the best start to a season in his career with 21.7 points per game as he takes on a bigger role in his fourth year. Haliburton has scored at least 20 points in 70% of the 10 games this year, and he has done it in all five home games.
The Nuggets are just a mediocre defense, ranked 17th in points per game and 19th in Defensive Rating. The Nuggets are also allowing the second-most points per game to the point guard position this season according to FantasyPros.
DeMar DeRozan (Bulls) – Over 23.5 Points vs. Pelicans
After being a model of consistency with the Bulls last year, DeMar DeRozan is being very frustrating this season. He already has three games where he did not score more than 13 points, including two games with nine points. Last season, his first with the team, DeRozan scored at least 15 points in all 76 games in the regular season. It wasn’t until the playoffs where he had a scoring dud with two games of 11 points against Milwaukee.
The last time DeRozan scored nine points this season, he backed it up with 46 points in Boston. Does he do that again? Most likely not, but he barely needs over half of that to hit this over.
His four sub-20 point games this year have been related to the game script as all four games were decided by at least 14 points. But it was still stunning to see DeRozan attempt just six shots in the win over Toronto two days ago.
Let’s go with him being more aggressive against the Pelicans, who allow the fifth-most points per game to small forwards this season according to FantasyPros. DeRozan scored 26 points in his only game against the Pelicans last season.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Over 3.5 Rebounds vs. Nets
On the season, Brunson has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 50% of the 10 games. He has gone over 3.5 rebounds in four out of five road games.
The Nets allow the fifth-most rebounds to point guards this season (7.56 per game). Brooklyn is still without Kyrie Irving (suspended) and Ben Simmons returned to a limited 15 minutes against the Mavericks. Brooklyn’s last two games have also been slugfests with neither team able to score 100 points.
The Knicks could be in for another grind here, and this is a low bar for Brunson to clear. He had at least four boards in 44-of-79 games (55.7%) with Dallas last year.
Scottie Barnes (Raptors) – Over 7.5 Rebounds vs. Rockets
Barnes is one of the higher-variance rebounders in the game, but there is an opening for more boards now that Pascal Siakam is out for a couple weeks for Toronto. Siakam leads the Raptors with 9.3 rebounds per game and Barnes is third on the team with 6.6 rebounds per game.
But without Siakam, expect Barnes’ average to go up the next two weeks. He already has three games with double-digit rebounds this season, including 10 rebounds against Chicago over the weekend.
The Rockets allow the eighth-most rebounds per game to power forwards. Houston is also one of the least effective teams on both sides of the court this season, so look for Toronto to have a significant rebound edge in this game.
Assists – Over/Unders
Ja Morant (Grizzlies) – Over 7.5 Assists vs. Spurs
We have seen Morant cut down his scoring and up his assists in the last week. Through six games, he was averaging 33.3 points and 6.3 assists per game. Over the last four games, Morant is averaging 21.3 points and 8.3 assists per game with nine assists in his last game, a close loss to Boston.
The Spurs are allowing the third-most assists per game (10.3) to point guards this season according to FantasyPros. Morant had eight assists in two of his three meetings with the Spurs last season.
Morant also had games with 52 and 41 points against the Spurs a year ago. This year, the Spurs allow the most points per game and play the fastest pace in the league. This could be one of those stat-stuffing games where Morant hits the over in both categories, points (28.5) and assists (7.5).
Paul George (Clippers) – Over 5.5 Assists vs. Lakers
These teams met in the opener with Paul George helping his Clippers to a 6-point win with 15 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists. The 10 rebounds were a season high and you could play his over in that category (7.5) too, but let’s look at the value in his assists.
In that opener, George had eight potential assists, but his teammates only cashed in four of them. The Clippers had just 18 assists in that game but have played better since. George continues to lead the team with Kawhi Leonard nursing his knee injury.
On the season, the Lakers are allowing the sixth-most assists to small forwards. George had nine assists in his only meeting with the Lakers a season ago.
But the final argument for playing George’s over is that in his last game against the Cavaliers on Sunday, George had three assists to 13 potential assists according to NBA.com. That’s how bad his teammates shot on his passes. Let’s hope for some regression and a chance to hit the over in this one.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Jordan Clarkson (Jazz) – Under 2.5 Threes Made vs. Hawks
Clarkson comes into this game red hot having made 11 of his 15 threes in the last two games. It is only the fourth time in his career where he made at least five threes in consecutive games. The first two times he did that, he made one three in his next game.
This Jazz-Hawks matchup actually features the two defenses that have forced opponents to shoot the worst 3P% (.326) of any team this season. If we keep that in mind and peg this game as a cool down night for Clarkson, then the under should be a worthwhile pick to look at in this game.
Jayson Tatum (Celtics) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Pistons
Tatum is shooting 37.0% from three this season, which is actually a little below his career mark of 38.3%. But the volume is there for Boston’s star player. In 10 games this year, Tatum has attempted at least seven threes in every game with multiple makes in every game.
He has hit at least three from three in 70% of the games this season. Last season, he was over 50% in that area in the regular season and 62.5% in the postseason. Tatum had two games with four made threes against the Pistons last year.
