By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has a big 10-game slate this Tuesday evening, including Knicks-Mavericks on NBA TV. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Joel Embiid (76ers) – Over 30.5 Points vs. Wizards
Embiid continues to lead the league in scoring at 33.1 points per game. The 76ers have won eight games in a row, and Embiid is averaging 35.6 points per game during that run, going over 30.5 points in 6-of-8 games.
On the season, Embiid has gone over 30.5 points in 15-of-24 games (62.5%). He missed both Washington games when the teams played a little two-game series that started on Halloween, but he will be ready for this one with the 76ers coming in hot after a good win on Christmas against the Knicks.
Embiid had two big scoring games in three meetings with the Wizards last season. He is facing a Washington defense that has allowed the sixth-most points per game (24.59) to centers according to FantasyPros.
Against defenses allowing the top eight most points to centers, Embiid has already scored 40 (Spurs), 59 (Jazz), 53 (Hornets), 26 (Pacers), and 44 (Clippers) points. Embiid only played a season-low 28:17 in the Indiana game. He’ll be going over in this matchup.
Fred VanVleet (Raptors) – Over 18.5 Points vs. Clippers
VanVleet’s shooting has been all over the map lately, but he made five threes in his last game and was still held to 18 points. He hasn’t gone under 18.5 in consecutive games since a slump at the beginning of the month when he wasn’t shooting much.
But in his last nine games, VanVleet has averaged 24.3 points per game, going over 18.5 points in 7-of-9 games.
VanVleet has not played the Clippers yet this year, but he scored 21 and 31 against them in two meetings last season.
The Clippers just allowed James Harden (76ers) to score 20 points on Christmas, and they played last night in a 142-131 win over Detroit in overtime. The Raptors had three 25-point scorers in their last game, an impressive 118-107 win in Cleveland. VanVleet was not one of the three, so let’s trust him to have a bigger share of the scoring this time and hit his over.
Jayson Tatum (Celtics) – Under 29.5 Points vs. Rockets
Tatum has been on a tear with five straight 30-point games, including three 40-point games. But we are going to play the numbers here and bank on a cool-down night.
Tatum has never gone six straight games with 30 points in his career, which is 471 games including playoffs.
The Rockets allow the fewest points per game to opposing power forwards according to FantasyPros. Tatum only scored 19 points against the No. 2 defense (Pelicans) in this metric earlier this season.
We’ll bank on Tatum not setting his career-high streak for 30-point games, and another part of that is Boston is a 14.5-point favorite and should win the game with ease, not requiring Tatum to play as many minutes or take as many shots.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
LeBron James (Lakers) – Under 8.5 Rebounds vs. Magic
One may have expected LeBron’s rebounds to go up since the Anthony Davis injury, but that has not been the case. James is averaging 6.0 rebounds per game since the Davis injury five games ago, down from 8.6 rebounds per game over James’ first 20 games this season.
James is on a prolific scoring run, putting in at least 30 points in seven straight games. Rebounding looks to be an area he is sacrificing to be more dominant on the offensive end. LeBron has gone under 8.5 rebounds in his last four games, 6-of-8, and 10-of-13 coming into Tuesday.
For the season, LeBron has only gone over 8.5 rebounds in 8-of-25 games (32%). The Magic allow a below-average number of rebounds to forwards this season. We’ll go with the recent trend and take the under on LeBron’s rebounds in this one. But he will be a threat to put up another 30-point game on Tuesday night.
Assists – Over/Unders
Trae Young (Hawks) – Over 9.5 Assists vs. Pacers
Young is averaging a career-high 9.9 assists per game this year, but he is just over a coin flip (16-of-30) when it comes to going over 9.5 assists in a game. Still, he has had some big games recently with 13 assists against the Pistons and Magic, and he had a season-high 16 assists against Orlando last week.
Young had a season-high 16 assists against the Pacers last season, though this will be the first meeting this season. Indiana plays one of the fastest paces in the league, but it allows the fifth-fewest assists per game to point guards according to FantasyPros.
But Young has still been productive against the best defenses this year as a passer. The Hawks come in rested after last week’s 25-point win over the Pistons. Look for Young to have a double-double here as well.
Josh Giddey (Thunder) – Under 5.5 Assists vs. Spurs
On the season, Giddey has gone over 5.5 assists in 14-of-28 games, so it is a true 50/50 proposition for him. The Spurs allow the 10th-fewest assists per game to shooting guards, but the Spurs are dead last in points per game allowed and Defensive Rating, so this is a defense to put up numbers against.
Giddey had five assists in his last matchup with the Spurs. He has had exactly six assists in each of his last three games, but it took some really hot shooting from his teammates to hit that number in his last two games.
Giddey’s teammates are 12-of-15 on his potential assists in the last two games according to NBA.com, including a 6-of-6 outing against the Pelicans in the last game. This is a rate that is usually closer to 50%, so 80% over the last two games (and 100% in the last game) sounds ripe for regression.
We’ll take the under on Giddey’s assists in this one.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Spencer Dinwiddie (Mavericks) Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Knicks
Dinwiddie played the Knicks earlier this month and shot 3-of-8 from three in an easy win. On Christmas against the Lakers, Dinwiddie was a modest 2-of-6 from three and finished with 8 points, his fourth single-digit scoring game of the season.
The last three times, Dinwiddie bounced back with at least three made threes the next game, including that December 3rd meeting with the Knicks, who allow plenty of threes to guards this season.
Dinwiddie has gone over 2.5 threes in 20-of-33 games (60.6%) this season. He has done it in 6-of-8 games coming into Tuesday. Dinwiddie has as many games with at least four made threes (nine) as he has with one or two made threes this season.
Dinwiddie is shooting 41.7% from three this season, which would easily beat his previous career high of 37.6% with the Nets in 2016-17.
We’ll trust him to hit a trio in this matchup as well.
LaMelo Ball (Hornets) – Over 3.5 Threes Made vs. Warriors
Do not let the injuries fool you, Ball is a prolific three-point shooter. After a shaky season debut where he shot 1-of-9 from three, Ball has made at least four threes in eight straight games, including four more on Monday night.
The Warriors allow the second-most made threes (3.48) to point guards this season according to FantasyPros. It is hard not to get into a three-point shooting contest when you face the Warriors, and Ball is certainly no stranger to taking his chances. He is taking 11.3 threes per game this year, up from 7.5 per game last year.
Instead of betting on the inconsistent Jordan Poole for Golden State, go with the steady LaMelo Ball from three in this one.
