By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has five games this Tuesday evening, including a TNT doubleheader with Warriors-Knicks and Grizzlies-Nuggets. No Steph Curry, no problem for TNT it seems. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
DeMar DeRozan (Bulls) – Over 25.5 Points vs. Heat
The Bulls and Heat last played on opening night, and DeRozan was sensational in that game with Zach LaVine inactive. DeRozan had 37 points, only one turnover, and he still found time for a season-high nine assists.
Do not count on the assists again, but after a bumpy start to this season, DeRozan has found the consistent shooting touch again like he had last year when he was an MVP candidate.
Over his last 15 games, DeRozan is averaging 27.7 points per game. DeRozan has gone over 25.5 points in 12-of-15 games coming into this one. He has done it in five of his last six games, including 29 points in a blowout loss with Minnesota.
DeRozan has snuck in some low-scoring games on us this season, but the Heat are one of his best opponents, and nine of his top 12 scoring games this season have been on the road. He’ll answer the challenge Tuesday night.
Jaden Ivey (Pistons) – Over 13.5 Points vs. Jazz
Two games ago, Jaden Ivey scored a season-low 5 points against the Kings. That made him an easy over pick for his next game against the Nets, and he delivered with 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting, his highest FG% (.636) in any game this season for the rookie.
Ivey has been a little up and down for the struggling Pistons as of late, but he has gone over 13.5 points in 17-of-28 games (60.7%) this season. This is definitely one of his lower lines, and while the Jazz are the third-best team at limiting the scoring of shooting guards, Ivey already has a 16-point game against Utah this season.
It happened a month ago and Ivey did it without making a single three, something he has only done in three other games this season. The Jazz are coming off a bad loss to the Cavaliers on Monday night. Trust Ivey in a Utah back-to-back to get over 13.5 points.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Under 3.5 Rebounds vs. Knicks
RJ Barrett (Knicks) – Over 5.5 Rebounds vs. Warriors
Welcome to another game of Rebound Roulette where randomness rules. We’ll stick with this Warriors-Knicks matchup instead of daring to predict if Kyle Kuzma will follow up 16 rebounds with a dud for the Wizards.
Here are the numbers from FantasyPros:
- The Warriors allow the most rebounds per game (7.37) to shooting guards this season.
- The Warriors allow the 11th-most rebounds per game (6.24) to point guards this season.
- Jalen Brunson (point guard) had five rebounds against the Warriors last time, but he has been under 3.5 rebounds in 7-of-8 games coming in.
- RJ Barrett (shooting guard) had four rebounds against the Warriors last time, but he is averaging 6.3 rebounds over his last 13 games, including a recent streak of over 5.5 rebounds in six straight games.
We’ll go with the opposite of the last matchup and stick to the recent numbers in New York as well as the season-long trends for the Warriors, meaning over for Barrett and under for Brunson.
Assists – Over/Unders
Draymond Green (Warriors) – Over 6.5 Assists vs. Knicks
With Steph Curry (shoulder) out and Jordan Poole hot as a shooter, Draymond Green is in position to be a significant facilitator in this offense again. He has only played in one of the three games that Curry recently missed, and that was the team’s last game, a 16-point win over Toronto.
Green only had five assists in that game, but he should have had several more. His teammates were just 5-of-16 on his potential assists according to NBA.com. That’s a bad night. Meanwhile, the Warriors were 6-of-9 on Poole’s potential assists.
Green played the Knicks once earlier this season and had seven assists in that game. He has 12 games with at least seven assists this season, so he does it almost half the time. More is required of him with this current setup for the Warriors. Trust him to hit over 6.5 assists.
Ja Morant (Grizzlies) – Over 8.5 Assists vs. Nuggets
Whether you believe Ja Morant was ejected early from his last game for talking to a courtside fan or for profanity and questioning a ref, either way he is coming back with a point to prove in this matchup.
Memphis was hot and Morant’s early ejection helped end its winning streak against the Thunder. In a big matchup with Denver, look for Morant to come back with a vengeance. Before this ejection, he had over 9.5 assists in four straight games.
According to FantasyPros, the Nuggets allow the third-most assists per game (9.61) to opposing point guards. Morant has a great shot to put up double-digit assists again in this game. He just may want to avoid saying anything to the refs with a target on his back now.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Jordan Poole (Warriors) Over 3.5 Threes Made vs. Knicks
We saw last season when Steph Curry was injured how Jordan Poole can get hot and stay hot from three. He had two different five-game streaks where he made over 3.5 threes in March.
Poole is coming off a career-high 43 points in Toronto, a rare road win for this Warriors team this season. It was his first ever 40-point game. He made 5-of-11 threes in that game after going 4-of-9 in the previous game. But he can sustain this, and the opportunities will be there without Curry.
Jaren Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies) – Over 1.5 Threes Made vs. Nuggets
Jackson shoots the three better than most big men in the NBA. He has gone over 1.5 made threes in 8-of-13 games this season. One of the times he didn’t was the 41-point blowout win over Milwaukee over the weekend when Jackson played fewer than 13 minutes.
Jackson was 2-of-6 from three in his last game against the Thunder. He usually attempts a handful of them a game, and he has been one of the better scorers for the Grizzlies this year after missing time earlier this season.
Jackson made five threes in one of his matchups with the Nuggets last season, a mark he only hit in one other regular-season game. Jackson was over 1.5 threes in 3-of-4 games with the Nuggets last season.
Memphis’ seven-game winning streak ended in the last game but look for a better offensive performance against Denver. The Grizzlies shot just 37.8% from the field against Oklahoma City.
