By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has five games this Tuesday evening, including a TNT doubleheader with Warriors-Bucks and Celtics-Lakers. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Joel Embiid (76ers) – Over 31.5 Points vs. Kings
Perhaps Embiid has taken the perceived MVP snub last year to heart because he is shooting and scoring better than ever before this season. Embiid is averaging 33.4 points per game after leading the league with 30.6 points per game last year. His .535 FG% would also be the highest of his career.
Embiid just had his second 50-point game of the season with 53 points against the Hornets on Sunday in a comfortable win. When he had 59 points a month ago against Utah, he came back five days later in his next game with 32 points.
Embiid has gone over the high bar of 31.5 points in 10-of-18 games this season, including four straight games with at least 35 points.
The Kings have allowed 11 players to score at least 32 points this year, but most of them were guards. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo had 35 points and rookie Paolo Banchero had a career-high 33 points against the Kings, so they can be had by elite talents. The Kings only rank 20th in Defensive Rating and play the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA.
Embiid is playing at a high level, and the offense has moved the ball very well in these last two home games with James Harden back in the lineup. Why stop now when Embiid is on such a run? Let’s go with his over again.
Steph Curry (Warriors) – Under 28.5 Points vs. Bucks
The Warriors are 2-11 on the road – only Orlando (1-11) has a worse record. Steph Curry is actually averaging more points per game on the road (31.3) than at home (29.1), thanks in part to his 50-point game coming in Phoenix. It was however in a losing effort.
This team is hard to trust away from Golden State. The last time Curry played the Bucks last March, he scored 8 points in 33 minutes, tied for the second-fewest points he’s ever scored in a game where he played at least 33 minutes. Curry also had just 12 points on 4-of-11 shooting in his last trip to Milwaukee in January.
Curry has been up and down since Thanksgiving. Over the last five games, he has alternated 30-point games with games under 20 points. He was just 3-of-17 from the field for 12 points against Indiana in a bad loss. He came back to shine against Boston with 32 points at home.
But now we see him in Milwaukee against another contender that ranks second in points per game and Defensive Rating. Let’s go with Curry to underwhelm and hit the under in scoring.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Kevin Porter Jr. (Rockets) – Over 4.5 Rebounds vs. Suns
The Suns will be without Devin Booker (hamstring) for the second game in a row. He’s had big scoring games against Houston this year, so his absence will be missed even if he struggled in the games against the Pelicans. There should be some more rebounds than usual.
These teams met at the beginning of the month and Kevin Porter Jr. had six rebounds. He had eight rebounds in the first meeting in October. He has gone over 4.5 rebounds in 18-of-25 games this year, a strong 72% hit rate.
The Suns are middle of the road at limiting rebounds to guards this year. We’ll trust Porter to go 3-for-3 at hitting this line against the Suns this year.
Assists – Over/Unders
CJ McCollum (Pelicans) – Under 5.5 Assists vs. Jazz
Zion Williamson (Pelicans) – Over 4.5 Assists vs. Jazz
This is a joint pick. When these teams met in the third game of the season, McCollum had a season-high 12 assists. He then had 11 assists in his next game and nine assists the game after that. Those totals represent his three-highest games this season in assists.
McCollum is only averaging 4.4 assists per game over his last seven games, but he is coming off arguably his best game of the season in the overtime win against Phoenix on Sunday. McCollum had 29 points and seven assists.
But in the two-game series with Phoenix over the weekend, McCollum got a boost when his teammates were 12-of-17 (70.6%) on his potential assists according to NBA.com. But for Zion Williamson, the Pelicans were an abysmal 7-of-24 (29.2%) on his potential assists. Williamson made 114 passes in the two games compared to 107 for McCollum.
On the season, McCollum is earning 53.7% of his potential assists while Williamson is earning 50.3% of his. Let’s bank on some regression to the mean with an under night in assists for McCollum and an over for Williamson.
Anthony Davis (Lakers) – Under 2.5 Assists vs. Celtics
LeBron James (Lakers) – Over 5.5 Assists vs. Celtics
This is another joint pick looking at regression. Anthony Davis is coming off a season-high seven assists in a game where the Lakers shot nearly 55% against Detroit. Things won’t be so easy against the Celtics, who allow the second-fewest assists (21.9) per game this season.
It was just a couple weeks ago we saw Davis go from six assists to one assist the next game. He has only gone over 2.5 assists in 10-of-23 games this season.
As for LeBron James, he has gone over 5.5 assists in 11-of-19 games as we know he is more than capable of having the all-around game while Davis is more of a points and rebounds big man.
James had five assists against Detroit, but it could have been a greater day as the Lakers kept making the extra pass and he ended up with three secondary assists. LeBron has gone over 5.5 assists in 4-of-6 games coming into Tuesday.
Let’s go with Davis to finish under and LeBron over as the Lakers try to keep up with the No. 1 offense.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) – Over 0.5 Threes Made vs. Warriors
Giannis is coming off his worst scoring game of the season as he had just 16 points in 37 minutes against Houston and the Bucks lost. He was 0-for-2 from three, and while he is never going to be a great three-point shooter, Giannis makes a three in more games than he goes empty these days.
In fact, Antetokounmpo has made a three in 12-of-22 games this season, including six games with multiple makes. He usually can’t help himself from attempting a few each game, and the three can get contagious when you are playing Golden State and they are launching them with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.
There have been only three instances this season of Giannis going consecutive games without a made three. After he was not aggressive and shot 0-for-2 against Houston, look for a better effort from him at home against these Warriors. He’ll make a three in this game.
Tobias Harris (76ers) Over 1.5 Threes Made vs. Kings
Harris started December red hot by going 5-of-6 from three against Memphis and 7-of-8 from three against the Rockets. Those are the only two games this season where he made more than four threes, and he was spectacular with only one miss in those games.
Harris has made over 1.5 threes in 14-of-24 games this season, a solid hit rate of 58.3%. He has made multiple threes in four straight games and in 6-of-7 coming into Tuesday.
The Kings allow the fifth-fewest made threes to power forwards according to FantasyPros, but not many at the position shoot the three like Harris. He is shooting 41.1% from three this season, which is fractions of a decimal point from his best season back in 2017-18.
The Kings have allowed 23 forwards to make multiple threes in 25 games this year, or nearly one per game. We’ll trust Harris to get the job done again.
