By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has just three games this Tuesday evening, including a doubleheader on TNT featuring Lakers-Cavaliers and Mavericks-Nuggets. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
LeBron James (Lakers) – Over 26.5 Points vs. Cavaliers
The Lakers are 5-1 since LeBron James returned from injury, though we know Anthony Davis has been doing the heavy lifting there with 44 and 55 points over his last two games.
But LeBron has also dropped at least 28 points in four of his last five games as the Lakers have looked closer to the two-man show we know they can be when James and Davis are healthy.
James faced Cleveland earlier this season and made a season-high 13 fields goals on his way to 27 points, though it is the only game this season where he failed to make a free throw.
But James has gone over 26.5 points in 9-of-16 games this season. He has gone over 26.5 points in 12-of-19 career games against his original team, including in 5-of-6 games as a member of the Lakers.
The Cavaliers have a good defense, and it will be a tough road game to win, but how can you not trust LeBron to put on a show in Cleveland? Take the over.
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Over 24.5 Points vs. Mavericks
Plenty of big names in action despite the three-game schedule. Nikola Jokic is not on his MVP level of the last two years, but he knows Luka Doncic is walking into the building with at least 25 points in the bank. He is going to have to match, and Jokic missed the first two meetings with Dallas because of a COVID situation in Denver.
Since Jokic returned, he has upped his scoring and has some of his best games this season. Over the last seven games, Jokic is averaging a more familiar 27.7 points per game after averaging 20.8 points per game in the first 13 games of the season.
Jokic has four 30-point games in his last seven games, including 32 points in a loss in New Orleans over the weekend. Jokic had 27 and 35 points in his last two meetings with Dallas. Look for him to go over 24.5 in this one.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Anthony Davis (Lakers) – Over 12.5 Rebounds vs. Cavaliers
Davis is doing more than just scoring a ton of points. He has gone over double-digit rebounds in nine straight games, averaging 15.4 rebounds per game in that time.
He started this run with a seven-game streak of going over 12.5 rebounds, including a four-game peak where he went over 15.5 rebounds. Davis had 17 rebounds in Washington on Sunday.
The Cavaliers allow the sixth-fewest rebounds to centers, but the Lakers play that fast pace to get more possessions. There is also the fact that Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen, their best rebounder, is questionable to play with a back injury that has kept him out the last five games. Cleveland just allowed 54 rebounds in an ugly 92-81 loss to the Knicks over the weekend.
Let’s trust Davis to fill up the stat sheet again and go over 12.5 rebounds.
Jaden Ivey (Pistons) – Over 3.5 Rebounds vs. Heat
The Heat are playing the second of a back-to-back after losing to Memphis on Monday night. Jaden Ivey and his Pistons just lost by 10 points to Memphis, but Ivey had six rebounds despite logging some of his lowest playing time (27:57) this season.
The rookie has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 14-of-21 games, or two-thirds of the time. If you look at the seven games where he did not go over 3.5 rebounds, four of them were blowout losses where the Pistons lost by 21-plus points.
Detroit is an 8.5-point road underdog here, but most of the team’s bad losses came early in the season. In the last 10 games where Ivey played, the Pistons have stayed within 10 points. Miami has not won a game by double digits in its last 10 games.
We like a closer, low-scoring game where Ivey will play more minutes than he did on Sunday, and he will go over 3.5 rebounds.
Assists – Over/Unders
Russell Westbrook (Lakers) – Over 7.5 Assists vs. Cavaliers
Westbrook was feeling it on Sunday as he helped feed Davis’s big 55-point game with a season-high 15 assists. It was Westbrooks’s second game in a row with double-digit assists. He had a four-game run of 10-plus assists earlier this season, and we know he is the all-time leader in triple-doubles.
But outside of that four-game run and the last two games, the only other double-digit assist game for Westbrook this season was against Cleveland when he had 10 a month ago in a 14-point loss.
The Cavaliers have a great defense, but the Lakers are hot on offense, James and Davis are scoring well, and the Lakers have the second-fastest pace in the league. They can get Cleveland into more of an offensive game.
Plus, Westbrook doesn’t need double-digit assists to hit his over. Anything over 7.5 will do, and he has hit that 10 times in 21 games this season.
Killian Hayes (Pistons)– Over 5.5 Assists vs. Heat
Since moving into a bigger role last month, Hayes is averaging 6.2 assists per game over the last 13 games. He has gone over 5.5 assists in eight of his last nine games, so he enters this matchup hot and consistent against this line.
Hayes had six out of 13 potential assists in his last outing against Memphis according to NBA.com. It could have been a bigger game if the Pistons shot better than 44%.
Only nine defenses allow fewer assists per game to point guards than Miami, but with Cade Cunningham still out, the Pistons have few other choices than Hayes to dish out the assists in this offense.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Luka Doncic (Mavericks) – Under 2.5 Threes Made vs. Nuggets
It may seem silly to doubt Doncic during one of his best three-point shooting runs, but this is a back-to-back for Dallas after winning Monday night. Doncic made four threes, his fourth game in a row with at least four made threes. It is the third time in his career he has had such a streak, though he’s never extended it to a fifth game.
But even 2.5 threes is not a mark Doncic has usually hit this year. Doncic has gone over 2.5 threes in 10-of-22 games this season. He is shooting 33.7% from three, which matches his career rate.
Doncic has already played Denver twice, and despite the Nuggets being shorthanded because of COVID, Doncic only made two threes in each game. Dallas even lost the rematch despite Denver not having Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray available.
Doncic has not gone over 2.5 threes in his last five meetings with Denver. We’ll bet on him having a cool-off night and take the under.
Jamal Murray (Nuggets) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Mavericks
Since his most recent return from injury, Murray seems to be heating up and finding his shot again after missing so much time from an ACL injury.
- First 14 games: 41.9% FG, 34.4% 3P, 16.1 points per game
- Last five games: 50.0% FG, 44.4% 3P, 23.2 points per game
Murray was inactive for the first two Dallas meetings but look for him to have a big role in this game. Murray has made multiple threes in five straight games, including four games with over 2.5 made threes.
Dallas has allowed the third-fewest made threes per game according to FantasyPros, but Murray is a great scorer who looks to be getting back on track. I would trust him to hit a trio of threes in this one.
