By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has three games this Tuesday evening, including a doubleheader on TNT of Warriors–Mavericks and Clippers–Trail Blazers. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Damian Lillard will be among the star players inactive in that late game in Portland, so we will focus a bit more on the other two games.
We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
NBA DFS Prop Picks for Tuesday Night
Points – Over/Unders
Luka Doncic (Mavericks) – Over 32.5 Points vs. Warriors
Do you need much of an argument to take the over on Luka’s points in a home game on TNT against the Warriors, the team that ended his playoff run last year?
- Doncic has scored over 32.5 points in 11-of-18 games this season.
- He averaged 32.0 points per game against Golden State in the postseason last year, including two 40-point games.
- He had 41 points at home last March against the Warriors, the last regular-season meeting between these teams.
- He had 34 points a week before that game in Golden State.
- The Warriors are not as good defensively this year (No. 28 in points allowed, No. 22 in Defensive Rating) as they were last year (No. 3 in points allowed, No. 1 in Defensive Rating).
Trust Luka to hit his over in this one.
Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Over 22.5 Points vs. Pistons
The Knicks are struggling with a 1-4 record over the last five games, but it has been quite the five-game odyssey for point guard Jalen Brunson.
- Brunson tied his season low with 13 points on 2-of-13 shooting against the Warriors on November 18th.
- He followed that up by tying his season high with 27 points in Phoenix.
- He dropped a season-high 34 points in Oklahoma City, his first 30-point game with the Knicks.
- He liked it so much he kept taking 20 shots a game and finished with 32 and 30 points in the last two games thanks to hitting three threes in each game (first time all season he’s done that).
It’s not like Brunson is shooting so extraordinarily well above what he’s capable of doing. In the last four games, he has shot 51.8% from the field. He was at 47.7% in the first 16 games this season, and his career FG% is 49.3%.
Normally this type of increase in scoring and shots would result from an injury to a teammate, but the Knicks have not had a single missed game from their core trio of Brunson, Julius Randle, and RJ Barrett.
These Knicks are so unique with their scoring in that Brunson (21.8), Randle (20.6), and Barrett (18.6) all average over 18 points per game, but no one else on the roster is averaging 10 points per game this season.
So, you play the matchups. Brunson just scored 26 points against Detroit a little over two weeks ago. The Pistons allow the most points per game (26.99) to point guards according to FantasyPros.
For at least one more game, let’s ride the Brunson scoring wave and take his over. He may not get to 30 again, but all we need is 23 for a hit.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Dorian Finney-Smith (Mavericks) – Over 3.5 Rebounds vs. Warriors
Finney-Smith’s shot has not been as reliable this season, but he is almost always over 2.5 rebounds, putting him in the ballpark for over 3.5 most nights. The Mavericks also have just one loss by double digits this season, so they do a great job of avoiding blowouts and making sure starters are seeing fourth-quarter minutes.
- Finney-Smith has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 11-of-19 games this season.
- Finney-Smith was over 3.5 rebounds in 16-of-18 playoff games last year.
- He averaged 5.8 rebounds per game in the Western Conference Finals against Golden State, a series where Dallas launched (and often bricked) a billion three-point shots.
- He had six games last season with over 8.5 rebounds, and two of them were against the Warriors.
Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Under 3.5 Rebounds vs. Pistons
This one might be a little cute, but if we go by the numbers we have, then two of the five worst rebounding games for Brunson this year have been against Detroit at home. He had two rebounds in the first game and one rebound in the rematch. Brunson has only been under 2.5 rebounds in 5-of-20 games this season, so those were very low games for him.
Before you say this sounds too cute, Brunson just recently played the Thunder eight days apart. He had one rebound in the first game and zero in the second. He’s also played Memphis twice and had rebound totals of five and six.
Maybe with all the added shots Brunson is taking in the last week, he won’t be as aggressive with his rebounding and will finish under 3.5 against Detroit once again.
Assists – Over/Unders
Anfernee Simons (Trail Blazers) – Over 5.5 Assists vs. Clippers
This could be a weird game with most of the stars out, but Damian Lillard’s absence at point guard with his calf injury is Simons’ gain:
- Earlier this season when Lillard missed two games, Simons finished with seven and eight assists.
- When Lillard was out against the Pelicans on 11/10, Simons had six assists.
- Lillard just missed the last four games on a road trip, and Simons had these assist totals: 5, 6, 5, and 6.
When Lillard is out, Simons takes on a lot of the responsibility of making plays for his teammates. He has always been right around that 5.5 assist line in Lillard’s absence this year.
With the Clippers not starting Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Luke Kennard, and some others, these are not the normal Clippers, who rank No. 2 in Defensive Rating and points allowed.
I would feel confident in playing Simons to hit his over in this one.
RJ Barrett (Knicks) – Over 3.5 Assists vs. Pistons
As with Brunson’s points, we are just playing the matchup in this one as it is the third meeting of the young season between these two.
Barrett is over 3.5 assists in 9-of-20 games this season, or 9-of-19 when he plays at least 20 minutes, so it is about a 50/50 proposition for him. In the two games against Detroit, Barrett had four and five assists, so he has already done it twice against this defense.
The Pistons also allow the third-most assists per game (5.56) to opposing shooting guards this season according to FantasyPros.
We’ll bank on Barrett doing it again to Detroit and hitting the over 3.5 assists.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Steph Curry (Warriors) – Under 4.5 Threes Made vs. Mavericks
Oh look, another week of pointing out Steph Curry’s home-road splits, because after all these years, the Warriors can be annoying in Golden State like that.
- Curry has gone over 4.5 made threes in 10-of-19 games this season.
- In road games, Curry has gone over 4.5 made threes in 3-of-9 games (33.3%).
- In home games, Curry has gone over 4.5 made threes in 7-of-10 games (70%).
- Curry made two threes in each of his last two games against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals last year.
- Curry went under 4.5 made threes in 4-of-4 games last regular season against Dallas.
- Dallas allows the second-fewest made threes (2.03) to point guards this season according to FantasyPros.
In Dallas, we’ll trust Curry to finish under 4.5 made threes.
Jerami Grant (Trail Blazers) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Clippers
Grant is having a career year from three as he is shooting 48.2% compared to a career average of 35.7%. But he has really been on fire in recent weeks after a solid start to the season for Portland:
- Grant’s first nine game averages: 1.7 3P, 4.2 3PA, 39.5% made
- Grant’s last 10 game averages: 3.8 3P, 7.2 3PA, 52.8% made
That’s a significant jump in volume and efficiency. You might say he’s “feeling it” with five games with five made threes in the last three weeks. He has gone over 2.5 made threes in each of his last three games.
Trust the increased volume to do the trick as Grant only needs three makes to hit his over in this one.
