NBA DFS Prop Picks for Tuesday Night

By Scott Kacsmar

The NBA returns with five games this Tuesday evening, including a doubleheader on TNT of Grizzlies-Pelicans and Nets-Kings. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.

NBA DFS Prop Picks for Tuesday Night

Points – Over/Unders

De’Aaron Fox (Kings) – Over 24.5 Points vs. Nets

Fox is one of the best scorers at the point guard position right now. He has been off to a very hot start in 2022 with 25.5 points per game, which would rank as his highest season. He is shooting 54.8% from the field, which is well above his career average (46.5%). He is shooting more threes than usual and hitting those 37.5% of the time, which would also be a career best if he can keep it up.

If you remove the game Fox left injured after nine minutes, he has gone over 24.5 points in 7-of-10 games this year. He also scored 26 points in his only meeting with the Nets last season.

The Nets are not terrible defensively this season, but they were rough against the Lakers (without LeBron James) in the second game on this road trip. The Kings are 4-1 in the last five games with at least 120 points in every win, so this team has been scoring lately. Trust Fox to go over 24.5 points in this one.

Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Over 18.5 Points vs. Jazz

You could argue the Jazz were an opponent that had a lot to do with Brunson’s value this offseason as he moved on from Dallas to the Knicks. In last year’s opening round of the playoffs, Brunson got to shine with Luka Doncic missing multiple games to injury. Brunson averaged 27.8 points per game in the six-game series, and he scored at least 23 points in all six games. He even had a 41-point game in Game 2 to rescue the Mavericks from falling down an 0-2 hole.

Brunson also had games with 22 and 27 points against the Jazz last year. Now the Jazz are a much different lineup this year and Brunson is not needed as that big of a scorer for the Knicks, but it is still a good matchup for him.

The Jazz allow 26.5 points per game to point guards, the fourth-highest average in the league according to FantasyPros. Brunson has gone over 18.5 points in 7-of-13 games this year, but this should be another 20-point game for him.

Rebounds – Over/Unders

Dorian Finney-Smith (Mavericks) – Over 3.5 Rebounds vs. Clippers

Here are some reasons to trust Dorian Finney-Smith to hit his over in rebounds this Tuesday night against the Clippers:

• Finney-Smith has hit over 3.5 rebounds in 7-of-12 games this year.
• Finney-Smith has had five rebounds in consecutive games as he is not taking as many shots for Dallas.
• Five of Finney-Smith’s seven games with over 3.5 rebounds have come at home this year.
• Finney-Smith had over 3.5 rebounds in 16-of-18 playoff games last year and he did it 49 times in 80 regular-season games (61.3%).
• The Clippers allow a league-high 12.2 rebounds per game to the power forward position according to FantasyPros.

Royce O’Neale (Nets) – Over 4.5 Rebounds vs. Kings

In the latest episode of Splits Happen (Small Sample Size Edition), we have the case of Royce O’Neale’s rebounding in 2022. Check out these home-road splits:

• Career splits (384 games): 4.9 rebounds at home, 4.6 rebounds on road
• 2021-2022 splits (77 games): 4.9 rebounds at home, 4.7 rebounds on road
• 2022-2023 splits (14 games): 6.0 rebounds at home, 3.3 rebounds on road

O’Neale has had over 4.5 rebounds in six games this year and all but one of those games was at home. He has been under 4.5 rebounds in 6-of-7 road games.

This is a road game, but we’re betting on this weird split to start evening out because of the opponent. The Kings play a faster pace than most teams and they allow the second-most rebounds per game to small forwards.

O’Neale played the Kings four times last year and he finished with exactly five rebounds in three of the games. We’ll take the over in this matchup, though if you’re into parlays, it might be most valuable to bet on him to have over 3.5 rebounds and under 5.5 rebounds.

Assists – Over/Unders

Kevin Durant (Nets) – Under 6.5 Assists vs. Kings

We know Durant is going to get his with at least 26 points in all 14 games to start this season. But will his teammates come through? The Nets are still without Kyrie Irving (suspended), putting more stress on Durant to make things happen as a scorer and facilitator.

Durant went from averaging 4.4 assists per game with Irving this year to 6.5 assists per game since the suspension. You could argue the suspension has made the Nets play better basketball as the team is 4-2, but the consistency of the other scorers is still debatable.

Durant has already yo-yoed from 11 assists to two the next night and from 12 assists to three the next game during this stretch. He had seven assists against the Lakers in a losing effort on Sunday.

But the fact is Durant has gone over 6.5 assists in 4-of-14 games this season and he has yet to do it in consecutive games. Durant has been under 4.5 assists in 5-of-7 road games.

I would bet against him doing it in this matchup as he takes on a bigger scoring role after tying season lows with eight field goals and 16 field goal attempts on Sunday.

Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) – Over 5.5 Assists vs. Spurs

Lillard has missed a few games to injury this season, but of the eight games he played, he played at least 34 minutes in all but one. He has gone over 5.5 assists in 5-of-8 games, but this is a low benchmark he usually clears.

Last season, in another injury-plagued year, Lillard went over 5.5 assists in 22-of-29 (75.9%). games. Two years ago, he did it in 51-of-67 games (76.1%). Anything over 75% should make you feel good.

Then there’s the opponent. Gregg Popovich is still the coach, but these aren’t the Spurs we grew up with. This year’s San Antonio team ranks 30th in points per game allowed and No. 28 in Defensive Rating.

The Spurs allow the third-most assists per game to point guards this season according to FantasyPros. Trust Dame to go over for your picks.

Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders

Mike Conley (Jazz) – Over 1.5 Threes Made vs. Knicks

The schedule makers were not kind to Utah this year by giving the Jazz 10 road games in their first 15 games. That just makes the 10-5 record all the more impressive.

But point guard Mike Conley has been anything but impressive the last three games after shooting 19% from the field on the road. He is 1-of-11 from three in the last three games.

Fortunately, the Jazz are home where Conley has shot 13-of-23 (56.5%) from three this season compared to the road where he is 14-of-49 (28.6%). The Knicks also allow the fifth-most made threes to the point guard position.

Conley is a good three-point shooter and he should snap out of his funk in this game to hit an easy over.

Joe Harris (Nets) – Under 2.5 Threes Made vs. Kings

If we are already rolling with Kevin Durant going under on his assists, then it only makes sense for Harris to go under on his threes. The specialist hasn’t been so special from three this year in returning from last year’s injury.

Harris used to be one of the most effective three-point shooters in the NBA with two seasons where he led the league in 3P%. He is a career 43.6% shooter from three but this season he is only at 34.5%.

More than that, he has not made over 2.5 threes in all 12 games he’s played this year. Let’s hope No. 13 is lucky and the streak continues as he finishes under 2.5 again.