By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA rolls into November with a four-game slate this Tuesday evening, including a doubleheader on TNT with Bulls-Nets and Timberwolves-Suns. We are looking at some of our favorite NBA player over/under picks to consider for your DFS lineups, fantasy over/under selections, and prop bets.
Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are a 2.5-point favorite in this matchup of teams with losing records so far.
DeMar DeRozan: Over 25.5 Points
DeRozan’s shot volume is down so far this season to 16.7 field goal attempts per game, which would be his lowest season in eight years. But his FG% (.530) would be the second best of his career and he is still averaging 25.9 points per game.
DeRozan has an amusing home-road split going on this season:
- Home (four games): 19.8 points per game and no games above 17 FGA or 25 points
- Road (three games): 34.0 points per game and at least 20 FGA and 32 points in each game
Maybe this is splits happen, or DeRozan feels he needs to take on a bigger workload in road games. Either way, DeRozan played the Nets three times last season, posting scoring totals of 28, 29, and 19 points. He can find his mid-range shot against this team if he wants it.
With Zach LaVine questionable, this feels like a big DeRozan night in Brooklyn.
Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat
This is practically a pick‘em with the Warriors perhaps being a 1-point favorite by tip. Also, another surprising matchup of teams with losing records as it involves the No. 1 seed in the East last year and the defending champions.
Steph Curry: Over 5.5 Assists
These teams just met last Thursday in Golden State in a 123-110 win by the Warriors. We know the Warriors are a less scarier team to play on the road, though Steph Curry has scored at least 31 points in all but one game this season. His points are enticing, but personally, he always seems to go the opposite of my scoring prediction for him.
Let’s look at assists instead. Curry had a season-high nine assists against Miami last week. He also had 10 assists in his only game against Miami last season. But Curry had just three assists over the weekend in a loss to Detroit where the Warriors only shot 42% from the field.
Miami has not started this season as strong defensively like in the past. Let’s trust Curry to facilitate enough on the road to hit his over in assists.
Kyle Lowry: Over 11.5 Points and Over 5.5 Assists
Trying to find rhyme or reason in Tyler Herro’s wild scoring swings for Miami can make you nauseous. Instead, let’s go with a lower variance player in veteran guard Kyle Lowry. Often, he can give you at least a handful of assists and in the low teens in points.
Last Thursday against Golden State, Lowry had his typical stat line these days with 12 points and eight assists, the latter being a season high. But Lowry has had at least six assists in four out of seven games this year. He’s had at least a dozen points in five out of seven games.
The Warriors are not playing good defense right now, ranked 29th in points per game allowed and 22nd in Defensive Rating. The Warriors have already allowed at least 120 points in five out of seven games this year. The Warriors did not allow 120 points until their 45th game last season, and it was 64 games before they allowed that much five times.
Lowry needs to take advantage of this defense at home and hit some soft overs.
Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder look to move to 4-3 as a 3-point home favorite. The Magic are 1-6 and 0-5 on the road.
Tre Mann: Over 1.5 Three Pointers Made
Much has been said about the abysmal three-point shooting by the Los Angeles Lakers (26.6%) this season, but did you know the Oklahoma City Thunder (29.5%) are the only other team shooting under 30% from three so far?
Second-year point guard Tre Mann has been off to an inconsistent start, but he has helped the team to three wins in a row, including an upset of the Mavericks despite his foul trouble and 4 points.
Mann was 0-for-4 from three as he struggled to ever find his shot. He had made multiple threes in four of the first five games this season. He made three from deep in each of his two meetings with the Magic last season.
The last time Mann failed to make a three this season, he came back the next game and made two on his way to a season-high 25 points. Orlando is his chance to bounce back right away against one of the worst teams in the league.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
The Suns are a 5-point home favorite in a game where the Timberwolves should have a considerable frontcourt advantage with Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert going against the Suns without Deandre Ayton.
Rudy Gobert: Over 13.5 Rebounds
Gobert turned 30 this summer, but he is not slowing down as he is averaging a league-high 14.7 rebounds per game through his first seven games with Minnesota. Gobert averaged a league-high and career-best 14.7 rebounds for Utah last season as well, so the beat goes on for him on the glass.
The scheduling has been a little weird for Minnesota as three of its first seven games have been against the Spurs. In all three of those games, Gobert failed to collect more than 12 rebounds. But in the other four games against non-Spurs opponents, Gobert has 15, 16, 21, and 23 rebounds.
Gobert played Phoenix twice last season and had 14 and 12 rebounds, so flirting right along the line with this number on Tuesday night.
The Suns were minus-13 in rebounds against Houston on Sunday, the team’s first full game without center Deandre Ayton this season. Without Ayton’s usual steadiness at center, look for Gobert to hit his over in this matchup and collect at least 14 rebounds.
Chris Paul: Over 4.5 Rebounds
File this one under “friendly coincidences” as you try to make lightning strike twice in the same spot with something that happened in a previous matchup.
In a meeting last January, Chris Paul had 10 rebounds against Minnesota in a game where Ayton was inactive like he will be on Tuesday night. The Timberwolves have added the aforementioned Gobert, but this season, Minnesota is allowing some of the highest rebound totals to opposing guards. Point guards are averaging 7.52 rebounds per game (second highest) and shooting guards are averaging 7.73 rebounds per game (fourth highest) against Minnesota.
Paul having 10 rebounds is very unusual, but his line is only half of that in this one. Paul has had at least five rebounds in half of the six games this season. We are banking on him to be more active as a rebounder with Ayton out as the Suns look to improve to 6-1.
