By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA continues this Tuesday with a 5-game slate, including a doubleheader on TNT with Lakers-Knicks and Pelicans-Nuggets. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) – Under 25.5 Points vs. Heat
It has been an adventure ever since Mitchell kicked off 2023 with 71 points in a game. He has been in and out of the lineup with injury, and he has only topped 26 points once in his last eight appearances where he is averaging just 21.8 points per game and shooting 32.5% from three.
Mitchell has not even broke 15 points in three of his last four games, though some of that is his minutes played and the game situation. Still, it has been a disappointing way to follow up that 71-point performance.
Mitchell played the Heat back in November and scored 13 points in another blowout (26 points) win that did not require much scoring from him. But with his recent struggles and the fact that Miami ranks No. 9 against shooting guards, this looks like the right spot to sell his high expectations and take the under in Mitchell’s scoring again.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) – Over 33.5 Points vs. Hornets
After his 5-game absence to get healthy, Giannis has been back to MVP form, averaging 38.3 points per game and leading the Bucks to a 4-0 streak. He scored 50 points in his last game against the Pelicans in a 25-point win.
Giannis had a pair of 40-point games against the Hornets last year, and this year they are one of the worst defenses at limiting big men. But the Hornets did hold Giannis to 9 points in a blowout loss four weeks ago. He played a season-low 22 minutes in that game. He is back and ready to go for this one and the Bucks are heavily favored (11 points), so expect him to continue this dominant run and get a fifth-straight win for the Bucks.
Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) – Over 26.5 Points vs. Bulls
Mr. Load Management is finally hitting his groove after a long recovery from injury. Leonard has only sat out two of the last 12 games, and in the 10 games he played, he averaged 29.3 points per game on 56.7% shooting.
Compare that to his first 17 sporadic appearances this season where he averaged 16.6 points and shot 47.1% from the field. Leonard has gone over 26.5 points in 8-of-10 games coming in, and the Chicago defense is nothing to write home about this year.
With a few days to rest here, look for Leonard to come out in good form and play well to hit his over here.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Over 11.5 Rebounds vs. Pelicans
Jokic came up short in his MVP showdown with Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid over the weekend, but there has been a glaring split this season where his numbers are much better at home than on the road.
- Jokic at home: 25.5 PTS, 12.1 TRB, 11.0 AST
- Jokic on road: 24.6 PTS, 9.5 TRB, 8.6 AST
The biggest difference there is rebounding where Jokic is +2.6 at home. He just had 11 rebounds last week in the big triple-double win over the Pelicans, and he had 16 rebounds when they played nearly two months ago in New Orleans.
This one is home, so let’s bank on Jokic falling somewhere between 11 and 16 rebounds, and preferably over 11.5 to hit this over and continue his MVP three-peat campaign.
Assists – Over/Unders
Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Over 6.5 Assists vs. Lakers
Brunson has played very well in the last two games against contenders like the Celtics and Nets with 26 and 29 points. His overall numbers could have been even better if his teammates cashed in more of his assists.
Against the Celtics, Brunson’s teammates were just 7-of-20 on his potential assists according to NBA.com. Things were a little better against Brooklyn, percentage wise, as Brunson’s teammates shot 4-of-10 on his assists.
But he has a good chance to feast on a Lakers defense that is below average, plays the second-fastest pace in the league, and allows 8.78 assists per game to point guards according to FantasyPros.
Zach LaVine (Bulls) – Over 3.5 Assists vs. Clippers
This is just a regression pick right here. In their last game out against Orlando, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan each scored 32 points, though Lavine finished with an assist and DeRozan had an uncharacteristic 8 assists.
From NBA.com’s charting, LaVine should have been credited with a pair of assists even though his teammates still shot 2-of-10 on his potential assists, an abysmal rate. But they were 8-of-10 on DeRozan’s potential assists.
With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George giving the Bulls plenty of work on both ends of the court, look for a down game from DeRozan with assists and for LaVine to regress to the mean. He has gone over 3.5 assists in 28-of-45 (62.2%) games this season.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Julius Randle (Lakers) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Lakers
How fun is riding the Julius Randle Three-Point Rollercoaster? Just three games ago against Cleveland, he was red hot, shooting 8-of-12 from three. He followed that up with a solid 5-of-13 game in Boston, but then he was just 1-of-6 in his last game against the Nets. That’s a very tough schedule of opponents.
Just a few weeks ago, Randle snuck a 6-of-11 shooting game in between games of 1-of-8 and 1-of-12.
He can go on slumps, but the numbers for the season have him making over 2.5 threes in 24-of-51 games (47.1%), so he is just under 50% here. But with his up-and-down nature, and another chance to shine against the Lakers, here is a good night to play him to hit his over and bounce back.
LaMelo Ball (Hornets) – Over 3.5 Threes Made vs. Bucks
Last season, Ball had a season-high eight threes against Milwaukee. This season, he tied his season high with seven made threes earlier this month against the Bucks. With the Hornets an 11.5-point underdog in this one, he is going to have to put the ball up from deep often again.
Fortunately, he has gone over 3.5 made threes in 17-of-24 games (70.8%) this season.
In games the Hornets lose by double digits with Ball active this year, he has gone over 3.5 made threes in 9-of-11 games. The game script should work in favor of his over either way. The Hornets actually had a season-best 29-point win the last time these teams met on January 6.
