By Scott Kacsmar
After some huge scoring games last night, the NBA returns with just three games this Tuesday evening, including Wizards-Bucks on NBA TV. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Jrue Holiday (Bucks) – Over 18.5 Points vs. Wizards
Holiday has missed the last three games with an illness, including Sunday’s lopsided loss against the Wizards, but he is probable and expected to return Tuesday night.
The Bucks are also going to get Giannis Antetokounmpo back, so this will be closer to the real lineup than the backups who lost by 23 points at home on Sunday. Nobody scored 20 points for the Bucks in that game. That will change this time.
Holiday has been in a good offensive groove as of late. In his last 11 games, he is averaging 20.8 points and shooting 42% from three. The Bucks are still without Khris Middleton, so Holiday has to step up to pick up the slack there.
Holiday scored 23 points in his last game against Boston’s defense on the road. Holiday scored 24 and 22 points in his last two home games against the Wizards, who are not an elite defensive team.
The scoring line for Antetokounmpo is tempting but high (34.5), so we will trust Holiday to be a solid No. 2 scoring option for the Bucks in this game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) – Over 28.5 Points vs. Celtics
Gilgeous-Alexander faced the Celtics in Boston in November, and it was one of his better games this season with 37 points and 8 assists. According to FantasyPros, the Celtics allow the 13th-fewest points per game to shooting guards, so they are not dominant against the position this year. We know the Celtics can score, so SGA will have to bring his ‘A’ game to compete in this one. The Celtics only won 126-122 last time against the Thunder.
Gilgeous-Alexander is also a great regression candidate in this game. In his last outing on New Year’s Eve against the 76ers, he scored a season-low 14 points. It was his worst shooting game of the season as he shot 4-of-15 (26.7%) from the field. He even shot 5-of-8 from the free-throw line, which is also the worst game of his season.
This is only the third time this season Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a game where he did not score 20 points. The last two times, he bounced back with 30 and 33 points. Look for him to do it again and post a big number in Boston.
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz) – Over 25.5 Points vs. Kings
These teams just played last Friday in a 126-125 thriller won by the Kings. Markkanen made a couple late shots to give the Jazz a 124-121 lead, but a missed free throw by the Jazz and blown lead in the final seconds led to Markkanen missing the game-winning shot.
Still, it was a really fine game for Markkanen, who scored 36 points despite going 1-of-7 from three and only shooting three free throws. He was nearly unstoppable from inside the arc. The Jazz have lost four straight games, but they were all decided by 1-to-5 points, and Markkanen scored at least 29 points in every game. The Jazz have only lost four games by more than 10 points this season, so they do a good job of avoiding blowouts.
Markkanen is on a good scoring tear and that should continue against a Sacramento defense that allows the most points per game (24.64) to small forwards according to FantasyPros.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Domantas Sabonis (Kings) – Under 13.5 Rebounds vs. Jazz
Last season, Sabonis had 13 rebounds in two games combined against Utah. His line in this game alone is 13.5, though the Jazz are a different team this year with Rudy Gobert gone at center. The Jazz are allowing the fourth-most rebounds per game to centers according to FantasyPros.
But when these teams played Friday, Sabonis had 11 rebounds, which is below his season average (12.4). Neither team had 40 rebounds as both offenses shot around 55% in a very offensive game.
Things should cool down a little here in the rematch between these offenses, but 13.5 rebounds is a sizable line for Sabonis. He has only gone over 13.5 rebounds in 11-of-34 games (32.4%) this season.
He had 14 rebounds in his last game against Memphis, and there has only been one three-game stretch this year where Sabonis went over 13.5 rebounds in consecutive games. We will bank on Utah playing solid enough offense again to keep the rebounding down and for Sabonis to hit his under in this matchup.
Assists – Over/Unders
Jayson Tatum (Celtics) – Under 4.5 Assists vs. Thunder
When these teams met in November, Tatum had just 1 assist, one of four games this season where he finished with so few assists. It wasn’t entirely due to lack of trying as his teammates shot a poor 1-for-6 on his potential assists that day (source: NBA.com).
This happened again last week to Tatum against the Clippers when he only had 1 assist. Then in the team’s last game against Denver, his teammates were 6-for-6 on potential assists.
The Thunder are one of the best defenses at limiting assists to forwards. Tatum has gone over 4.5 assists in 14-of-35 games (40%) this year. Without multiple assists in his last game against the Thunder and a 100% success rate by his teammates in the last game against Denver, we like Tatum to finish somewhere between 1-to-6 assists in this game, so we’ll take the under.
De’Aaron Fox (Kings) – Over 5.5 Assists vs. Jazz
Let’s hope Fox and his teammates are more consistent against Utah than they were in a recent back-to-back with the Nuggets. Fox went from 4 assists in the first game to a season-high 13 assists in the rematch.
Just when you thought the regression would hit hard the next game, he had 10 assists against Utah last Friday. Incredibly, Fox’s teammates shot 10-of-11 on his potential assists according to NBA.com.
You definitely had to expect that to regress the next game, and it did, but Fox still hit over 5.5 assists thanks to his teammates going 6-of-18 on potential assists. That is a poor shooting night, so you expect better here. The part that stands out though is that he is setting up a lot of potential assists in these games and should have plenty of opportunities to hit the over 5.5 here whether his teammates have a good night or not.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Josh Giddey (Thunder) Over 0.5 Threes Made vs. Celtics
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) Over 0.5 Threes Made vs. Celtics
The Celtics are still averaging a league-high 118.6 points per game this year, so teams know they have to come prepared with a good offensive game to compete with them.
The Thunder are more of a mediocre three-point shooting team at best, but it is not asking for much for two of their starters to hit a three in this game.
- When these teams met in November, Josh Giddey was 1-of-6 from three and SGA was 2-of-4 from three.
- Giddey has made a three in 19-of-31 games (61.3%) this season, including one in 10-of-12 games coming in.
- Gilgeous-Alexander has made a three in 22-of-33 games (66.7%) this season, so he does it two-thirds of the time.
Trust these guys to both hit at least one three in this one.
Jordan Clarkson (Jazz) – Under 2.5 Threes Made vs. Kings
When these teams met last Friday, Clarkson was 0-for-2 from three. It was the fewest attempts he’s had in any game this season despite playing 35 minutes. Clarkson still scored 25 points, but it was really his least aggressive three-point shooting game all season.
Clarkson is a streaky shooter. He has gone over 2.5 threes in 18-of-38 games, so he is close to a 50/50 coin flip for this line. But we are going to read into his passiveness from three on Friday showing up again here and he will hit under 2.5 threes.
