By Scott Kacsmar
This Tuesday night in the NBA features four games, including a doubleheader on TNT with Mavericks-Pelicans and Warriors-Suns. We are looking at some of our favorite NBA players over/under picks to consider for your DFS lineups, fantasy over/under selections, and prop bets.
NBA DFS Prop Picks for Tuesday Night
Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards
These teams met four times last year and each game was decided by single digits, including three games decided by exactly three points. So, hopefully, this will be another competitive game that avoids blowout territory, which is bad news for betting NBA overs.
Jaden Ivey: Over 14.5 Points
Detroit’s top rookie is off to a really nice start for the team. He has scored 17 or 19 points in all three games while shooting 50% from the field and 5-of-11 from three-point territory.
Detroit’s scoring has been very balanced so far with Ivey ranking fourth on the team with 17.7 points per game so far. New acquisition Bojan Bogdanovic is leading the team with 19.3 points per game as he has been dominant from three as you’d expect from his Utah performance.
But as the season goes on, Ivey has a chance to be right up there with Cade Cunningham for the team’s top scorer. This number is low enough to where it should be very obtainable for Ivey to clear for the fourth game in a row.
Bradley Beal: Over 5.5 Assists
Washington’s top shooting guard is back and off to a great shooting start with 61.7% of his shots going in so far. He also is dishing out 6.3 assists per game to lead the team in that category as well.
Last season, Beal was able to break six assists in 27-of-40 games (67.5%), so that is a dependable hit rate for this matchup based on recent production.
Detroit’s defense ranks 24th in FG% (.482), 26th in Defensive Rating, and 25th in points per game allowed. The Pistons have allowed at least 124 points in two straight road games, and this is the final leg of a three-game road trip.
You can trust Beal to hit six assists in this one.
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans (2-1) are off to a good start with the return of Zion Williamson, but their star is already a little banged up, listed as questionable with a hip injury for this one.
Luka Doncic: Over 30.5 Points
Doncic came out on fire against Memphis on Saturday. He scored 21 points in the first quarter before finishing with 32 points in just under 30 minutes of action. There was no need for him to play late into the 41-point blowout win over one of the NBA’s best teams.
Let’s ride the hot hand again with Doncic, who has scored 35 and 32 points in the first two games this season. In his last trip to New Orleans last February, he scored 49 points. With the Pelicans off to a hot offensive start and a so-so defensive one, this could be a fun shootout on Tuesday night. Trust Luka to deliver another 30-point game.
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Clippers are a 10-point favorite in this one, though we have already seen several upsets in this first week of the season. The Thunder are 0-3, but none of the losses have been by more than 10 points so far.
Luguentz Dort: Over 3.5 Rebounds
Dort is currently tied for second on the team with 14.3 points per game, but his rebounding number is most enticing here at only 3.5. Dort had six and seven rebounds in the first two games this season, then that number dipped to three in the Minnesota loss where he had to be more of a shooter and scorer with the Thunder playing from behind.
It would be a surprise to not see the Clippers win this game, but they are a work in progress as Kawhi Leonard works his way back into playing shape after missing last season with his injury. Leonard played in the opener by coming off the bench, but he is expected to miss some games early as the team eases him into action.
The Clippers are 29th in Offensive Rating and not shooting the three well (.325) so far. But that should be good news for rebounds in this game. Asking Dort to get four isn’t asking much. He did it in 62.7% of games last season.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
This is nothing like the hype for their first meeting last year when the Warriors were 18-2 and the Suns were on a 16-game winning streak. But this could be a good one between two teams still expected to do great things this year. Take notice that the total for this game is 225 points, though all four meetings last year finished under that mark.
Chris Paul: Under 13.5 Points
Chris Paul is 37 years old, which is basically in the Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady ballpark for an old athlete these days. All three being questioned for their performance right now is funny since the answer is obvious why things aren’t going the way they used to. A Danny Glover GIF from Lethal Weapon can answer it.
Paul’s case is most amusing since he was having another incredible season for the best team in the league, then he was doing great things in the playoffs as he built a 2-0 lead on Dallas in the second round. Paul was averaging 22.6 points per game in the first eight playoff games last year.
Then on the day of Game 3, Paul turned 37 and suddenly he was turning the ball over like crazy, fouling out, and he averaged 9.4 points per game as Phoenix lost Game 7 at home in embarrassing fashion to the Mavericks.
In three games this season, Paul is averaging 7.7 points per game on 32.1% shooting. He has not surpassed 10 points in any game. He is 1-of-11 from three, including a 1-for-8 performance against the Clippers over the weekend.
At some point, you hope regression to the mean kicks in, but maybe Paul’s just a limited player at 37 these days. He scored at least 15 points in three of four meetings with the Warriors last year, but Golden State rarely ever had its full core of players together when they played.
Until Paul starts showing his jumper is still pure and efficient, take the under on his scoring contributions. He can still facilitate with the best of them, and the roster is a very good one, but his days of closing teams out with his shot in the fourth quarter may be over.
Steph Curry: Over 27.5 Points
With that Finals MVP finally in his possession, Curry has started this title defense in impressive fashion. He has scored 33 or 34 points in all three of the team’s games so far, hitting 47% from the field and 44.4% from three.
We know it takes a good effort to beat the Suns in Phoenix, and Curry dropped 33 points his last time playing there, which was a Christmas game 10 months ago. The Suns also allow the second-most points per game (35.07) to point guards this season after Damian Lillard (41) and Luka Doncic (35) have already ripped them for 35-point games in the first week.
This feels like a “points over, assists under” type of night for Curry as the Warriors try to improve to 3-1 in this first head-to-head matchup with the Suns this year.
