By Scott Kacsmar
Before we get to the NBA’s All-Star Weekend, there are still three games on Thursday night, including a doubleheader on TNT with Bucks-Bulls and Clippers-Suns. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) – Over 34.5 Points vs. Bulls
Last season, the Bulls were 1-8 (including playoffs) against the Bucks. On the bright side, Giannis never scored 35 points in any of those nine games. This season, the Bulls are 2-0 against the Bucks, but Giannis has scored 45 and 36 points in those games.
You’ll obviously take these outcomes every time if you are a Bulls fan, but the Bucks (40-17) need to snap out of it and get a win against the lesser Bulls team (26-32) going into All-Star weekend.
The Bucks are 28-4 this season when Giannis scores at least 28 points, yet half of the losses are to the Bulls. He is on a real tear right now with an average of 38.6 points per game over his last nine games. He has gone over 34.5 points in 7-of-9 games coming in, and one of the times he went under he still had 34 points.
Look for Milwaukee to win a 12th-straight game and for Giannis to contribute at least 35 points to it.
Kristaps Porzingis (Wizards) – Over 23.5 Points vs. Timberwolves
Porzingis scored a season-high 41 points against the Timberwolves in the only meeting between these teams so far on November 28. He was great in that 15-point win with 6-of-10 from three.
If you look at Porzingis’ season, he has some of his best scoring games against the same opponents. He’s hit the Warriors up for at least 32 points twice, the 76ers for over 23.5 points three times, a pair of 27-point games against the Nets, and a pair of 28-point games against the Trail Blazers.
Porzingis has gone over 27.5 points in 5-of-7 games coming into this one. You just have to hope he doesn’t settle for a passive night with eight shots like he had against Charlotte last week. But we’ll bank on him having another good game against a Minnesota defense that is ranked 19th in points per game allowed and plays the fourth-fastest pace in the league.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Terance Mann (Clippers) – Over 3.5 Rebounds vs. Suns
Mann goes over 3.5 rebounds in just about half his games this year. He has done it in 3-of-4 games coming into this matchup. Mann had a season-high 11 rebounds against the Suns in December, his only game in double digits this year.
That game may deserve an asterisk since Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Reggie Jackson, and Ivica Zubac were all inactive. But Mann has started 20 straight games for the Clippers and averages 4.0 rebounds over that time in 28.2 minutes per game. He has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 10-of-20 games coming in.
Mann also had games with 3, 4, 4, and 9 rebounds against the Suns last year. Call it a coin flip this year for him, but we will take the over in this matchup.
Assists – Over/Unders
Mike Conley (Timberwolves) – Over 6.5 Assists vs. Wizards
In his second game with the Timberwolves since the trade, Conley was more comfortable in his new surroundings and had 9 assists in a win over Dallas. He has gone over 6.5 assists in 8-of-10 games coming into this one, so he has been hot.
Conley played the Wizards twice with Utah this year, and he had 6 and 10 assists in those two games. That averages out to eight assists per game.
On the season, Conley has hit over 6.5 assists in 30-of-45 games, which is two-thirds of the time. We’ll take his over in this one.
Chris Paul (Suns) – Over 9.5 Assists vs. Clippers
Chris Paul is only averaging 9.0 assists per game against his career average of 9.5 assists per game and his league-leading average of 10.8 last year. But Paul was in rare form on Tuesday night against the Kings when he had a season-high 19 assists.
According to NBA.com, Paul’s teammates were 19-of-25 on his potential assists, so it was a hot night of shooting too for the offense. Paul only has hit double-digit assists in 17-of-38 games (44.7%) this season, but it is hard to bet against him coming off such a great game.
Paul has faced the Clippers, another one of his former teams, twice this year and he had 11 and 13 assists in those games. His teammates were 24-of-45 on his potential assists over the two games, so that is an average of 12 assists and 22.5 opportunities per game.
We’ll trust the over as the Suns look to head into All-Star weekend with a win and Kevin Durant soon to join the lineup.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) – Over 1.5 Threes Made vs. Suns
Leonard was red hot in his last game on Tuesday with 7-of-9 from three-point territory against the Warriors. That was more makes in one game than his previous four games combined (six threes).
While it is natural to expect Leonard to cool down this game, he should still be a good bet for two makes to hit his over. In his last 16 games since he has started playing more time, Leonard is averaging 36.5 minutes per game and 2.5 made threes per game. He is also shooting 49.4% from three in that time, so he has been hot beyond just Tuesday night.
The Suns have good numbers against small forwards this year, but this is Leonard, one of the best in the game. He has gone over 1.5 made threes in 11 of his last 16 games. Take his over in this one.
Kyle Kuzma (Wizards) – Under 2.5 Threes Made vs. Timberwolves
It is tempting to take the under 2.5 made threes for Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards as he has been on a cold streak, but you figure he is going to snap out of it eventually. But Kyle Kuzma is the classic case of a volatile player. Last game, in his return from injury, he lit it up with 6-of-10 from three against Portland for his second-best three-point shooting game of the season.
That was just 11 days since he played the same Portland team and shot 0-for-5 from three, tied for his second-worst three-point shooting game this season. He was 3-of-18 from three in his four previous games before Tuesday’s hot night.
That is the Kuzma experience in a nutshell as he is highly volatile with threes, rebounds, and assists. What goes up usually comes crashing down the next game, so I will take his under in threes in this matchup.
