By Scott Kacsmar
Did you miss it? The NBA returns from the All-Star break with a solid 9-game slate this Thursday night. TNT has a doubleheader with Grizzlies-76ers and Warriors-Lakers. While Steph Curry is still out for Golden State, you can expect the other big stars to be active this Thursday night. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Jayson Tatum (Celtics) – Over 29.5 Points vs. Pacers
Can a player call for a heat check four days after the All-Star Game? Jayson Tatum made some history as MVP of that game with 55 points, a record for the All-Star Game. He has been having a great season for the best team in the conference, and he is now getting an Indiana team that he scored 41 points against in his only meeting this year.
But oddly enough, that was in a losing effort. The Celtics are 19-2 this season when Tatum scores at least 33 points, but you are looking at one of the two losses when he had one of his eight 40-point games this season.
But we are not interested in the moneyline or spread here. Tatum just has to score 30 points to hit his over, and he has done that in 58.2% of his games this season. We will trust him to do it again and likely in a winning effort this time.
Luka Doncic (Mavericks) – Over 32.5 Points vs. Spurs
When these teams met on New Year’s Eve, Luka Doncic scored 22 points in the first quarter and 51 in the game as the Mavericks barely won 126-125. Now they have Kyrie Irving and are a 13.5-point favorite in this game, but Doncic and Irving have lost the first two games they have played together in Dallas.
That is unlikely to happen here, but Doncic has shown he can score so many points early in games that you do not worry about a blowout where he sits out the fourth quarter. He can still finish with over 32.5 points in three quarters, and it is a mark he has cleared in 60% of his games this year.
Doncic should not be dropping 50 again in this game, but the Spurs are the bottom-ranked defense, so anything is possible. We’ll settle for 33 at least.
Kevin Huerter (Kings) – Over 14.5 Points vs. Trail Blazers
Did you catch the video of Kevin Huerter during last weekend’s 3-Point Shooting Contest? He was abysmal, collecting just 8-of-40 points to tie him for the second-worst score ever in the contest.
Fortunately, Huerter is shooting 39.2% from three this season and doing a good job for the Kings. But he needs to shake off last Saturday’s lousy showing with a big game in a game that counts.
Huerter played Portland in the season opener and made six threes on his way to 23 points, one of his best games this season. Huerter has scored over 14.5 points in three straight games and in 4-of-5 games coming into this one.
We’ll take Red Velvet to bounce back and score at least 15 points in this one to hit his over.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Bojan Bogdanovic (Pistons) – Over 3.5 Rebounds vs. Magic
This Detroit season has not gone as hoped, but the Pistons are 2-0 against Orlando. Bojan Bogdanovic is the team’s leading scorer, but he also has an enticing line on his rebounds in this matchup.
Bogdanovic has had 5 rebounds in three straight games, and he had 5 and 3 rebounds in the two matchups with Orlando. That averages out to 4 rebounds per game, and all we need is that number here to hit another over. The Magic are middle of the road in allowing boards to power forwards, but the Pistons have played well against the Magic this season.
Assists – Over/Unders
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Under 9.5 Assists vs. Cavaliers
Going under on the guy trying to win a third-straight MVP is probably unwise, but Jokic has been flirting too closely with this line in recent games despite still putting up several triple-doubles for the top team in the Western Conference. It is far from a safe over.
In his last four games, Jokic has had 6, 10, 8, and 10 assists. He had 10 assists in the only meeting with Cleveland back in early January, but that was also at home. If you look at home-road splits this year, Jokic has his biggest drop in assists from 11.4 per game at home to 8.5 on the road.
The Cleveland defense allows the ninth-fewest assists per game to centers. Even if Jokic is well on his way to a third MVP, we can take this under with some confidence that the Cavaliers will do enough at home to deny him a triple-double.
Ja Morant (Grizzlies) – Under 8.5 Assists vs. 76ers
Had to check this line at multiple sites to make sure it was legit, because this looks like a good value play. Morant has only cleared 8.5 assists in 20-of-48 games (41.7%), a bad hit rate for an over.
Worse, Morant had 3 assists in 35 minutes in the only meeting against Philadelphia this year. The Grizzlies won, but Morant scored 28 points on 28 shots and was a minus-8 in the game. He did not play that well. His teammates were 3-of-11 on potential assists, so that was a bad rate too. But the 11 attempts are not that impressive either.
Look for James Harden to make Morant work on the defensive end and bring out the scorer in him on the offensive end. Take the under in Morant’s assists for this matchup.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Trey Murphy III (Pelicans) – Over 1.5 Threes Made vs. Raptors
In the only meeting between these teams to close November, Murphy tied his season high with six made threes. We are just looking for a pair in this rematch, which is something he has done in 34-of-56 games (60.7%) this season.
Murphy was 0-for-4 from three in his last game before the All-Star break, snapping a streak of five straight games with multiple makes. He is shooting 39.7% from three this season, so he is more than decent at doing this in his second season.
Is Murphy invincible from going consecutive games without multiple made threes? He is not, but check out this fascinating streak (Games 6-14) he had earlier this season in made threes: 3-0-3-0-3-0-3-0-3.
Again, we’ll just take two here and the Raptors allow the fifth-most made threes to small forwards according to FantasyPros.
D’Angelo Russell (Lakers) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Warriors
This is Russell’s third time facing the Warriors in February. When he was still in Minnesota, he came out red hot and was 7-of-17 from three, tying his season high in threes. Less than two weeks later he was with the Lakers, and he was only 1-for-3 from downtown in that game. In a November meeting, he was 3-for-6.
Russell has gone over 2.5 made threes in 29-of-57 games (50.9%) this season, so he is a bit of a coin flip. He did it in his last game against the Pelicans when he shot 3-of-5. He is a solid 39% three-point shooter this season.
But we are going to play the matchup as the Warriors still allow the second-most made threes to point guards this year according to FantasyPros. Russell will likely finish somewhere between the 1 and 7 made threes he had in two February games against Golden State, but we will bank on that number being over 2.5 as the Lakers try to get some secondary scoring.
