By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has eight games this Sunday, concluding with a night game on NBATV between the Pacers and Trail Blazers. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
CJ McCollum (Pelicans) – Under 19.5 Points vs. Nuggets
The Pelicans have been on an impressive run with a 5-1 record over the last six games, which has been led by Zion Williamson during this stretch. That comes as no surprise, but usually CJ McCollum is a decent choice for being a No. 2 player on a team like he was in Portland, but he has been struggling to score this season.
McCollum averaged 21.6 points through nine games this season, then things took a turn. In his last night games, he is averaging 14.3 points per game and is shooting just 36.8% from the field.
McCollum has hit 20 points twice in his last night games. He missed four games before making his return against the Spurs on Friday. He played just under 32 minutes, but he finished 2-of-11 from the field and scored a season-low 5 points.
We expect McCollum to bounce back at some point, but for now, let’s stick with the under and for him to not reach 20 points in this matchup.
Devin Booker (Suns) – Over 31.5 Points vs. Spurs
Do we go back to the well until it runs dry? Booker has scored 44, 51, and 41 points in his last three games for the Suns, a streak as hot as any in his career. He also has shot at least 60% from the field in all three games.
You expect a cool-down game any moment but look at the matchup here. The Spurs allow the most points in the NBA (120.8) and rank 29th in Defensive Rating. The Spurs also allow the most points to shooting guards according to FantasyPros.
Booker scored 49 points in a trip to San Antonio last January, and this defense is even worse. The top-seeded Suns also need his scoring after dropping Friday night’s game to Houston despite Booker’s 41 points. It ended a six-game winning streak.
If the lines are going to stay this low, we’re going to keep taking the over on Booker until he cools down. Five of his eight games with over 31.5 points have been on the road this year too.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Kevin Durant (Nets) – Over 6.5 Rebounds vs. Celtics
The first matchup of the season between the Nets and Celtics since Boston’s playoff sweep will put a lot of pressure on Kevin Durant again. The Celtics are 18-5 and have the best offense in the league.
In his last two games at home in the playoffs against Boston, Durant had 8 and 7 rebounds in losses. Durant has gone over 6.5 rebounds in 12-of-24 games this season, so a virtual coin flip. But he knows he has to have an all-around great game if the Nets are going to pull this one off.
The Nets are playing well on a four-game winning streak, and Durant just had 9 rebounds against Toronto despite scoring under 20 points for just the second time this year. He should have another solid game in rebounds and assists here.
Darius Garland (Cavaliers) – Over 2.5 Rebounds vs. Knicks
Garland has gone over 2.5 rebounds in only 7-of-17 games (41.2%) this year, but 6-of-7 times he did it happened on the road where he’s been a more aggressive rebounder.
Last season, Garland was over 2.5 rebounds in 61.8% of his games, so we are expecting some positive regression for that 41.2% average this season. He has missed time with injury and may have been a bit more hesitant to mix it up after getting poked in the eye in October.
The Knicks are also allowing 7.15 rebounds per game to point guards, the third most according to FantasyPros. Cleveland is playing great defense – haven’t allowed last four opponents to surpass 100 points – and will take that intensity on the road in this one. Take Garland’s over.
Assists – Over/Unders
Nikola Vucevic (Bulls) – Over 2.5 Assists vs. Kings
Vucevic has failed to log multiple assists in consecutive games for the second time this season. He had one assist in each road loss to the Suns and Warriors.
Using tracking stats from NBA.com, it has not been for a lack of trying. Vucevic’s teammates are just 2-of-9 on his potential assists in the last two games. Over the last three games, his teammates are 4-of-13 (30.8%) on potential assists.
The season numbers paint a rosier picture. Vucevic has gone over 2.5 assists in 12-of-22 games, a solid hit rate for a center. His teammates have also made 64-of-122 potential assists (52.5%), so we can see they’ve been letting him down the last week.
The Kings allow the fourth-most assists (4.61) per game to centers according to FantasyPros. We like the Bulls to bounce back here with Vucevic going over 2.5 assists.
Kyle Kuzma (Wizards) – Under 3.5 Assists vs. Lakers
The logic on Kuzma is just like Vucevic, except it’s in the opposite direction. Kuzma’s teammates have made 6-of-7 potential assists over the last two games and 15-of-21 (71.4%) in his last three games. They have been great for him.
It is a hot streak for someone who has seen 55.7% of his potential assists work out this season. Kuzma has been held under 3.5 assists in 14-of-22 games (63.6%), so it is not a mark he usually exceeds.
If you are worried about any potential “revenge game” factor since it’s the Lakers, do not worry. Kuzma already played the Lakers last year as a member of the Wizards and he finished with 3 assists.
We’re good with the under here.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Bojan Bogdanovic (Pistons) – Over 1.5 Threes Made vs. Grizzlies
Bogdanovic shot himself out of a slump in a clutch win against Dallas on Thursday. He shot 5-of-6 from three on his way to 30 points.
In the previous six games, Bogdanovic was shooting just 28.6% from three with one game with multiple makes. He was so hot to start the season with 50% made from three in the first nine games while averaging 3.7 makes per game. But he has only made 1.6 threes per game the last 14 games.
But we like the matchup here and Bogdanovic has done a much better job shooting at home. In 10 home games with Detroit, Bogdanovic is shooting 47.1% from three. In 13 road games, he is shooting 35.9%. He had a similar split with Utah last year (42.7% at home, 33.7% on the road).
We’ll trust him to hit a couple threes in this one. He has gone over 1.5 threes in 14-of-23 games (60.9%) this year.
Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Under 1.5 Threes Made vs. Cavaliers
Brunson is coming off his worst three-point shooting game of the season, finishing 0-for-4 against the Bucks. His previous worst game with the Knicks was at the end of October when he shot 0-for-3 against Cleveland, the defense that allows the fewest made threes (2.38) to shooting guards according to FantasyPros.
It would take Brunson four games before he went over 1.5 threes that time. He is not a great three-point shooter. His 3P% is down to 32.3% with the Knicks after he made 37.3% with the Mavericks as more of a role player. He is attempting a career-high 4.2 3PA in his new role with the Knicks.
Brunson has gone over 1.5 made threes in 10-of-22 games this season. We’ll trust the Cleveland defense again and take the under in this one.
