NBA DFS Prop Picks for Sunday Games

By Scott Kacsmar

The NBA wraps up the weekend with eight games this Sunday, including an early tip between the Knicks and Suns. Some star players are going to be out in this slate with Ja Morant out against the Nets and Nikola Jokic again missing in action against Luka Doncic’s Mavericks. As for LeBron James, he is questionable against the Spurs.

We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.

Points – Over/Unders

Cameron Payne (Suns) – Over 17.5 Points vs. Knicks

With Chris Paul out another game, it remains the Cameron Payne show at point guard. As a starter over the last five games, Payne has averaged 20.0 points per game with three 20-point games.

In the lone home game during that span, he shined his brightest with 29 points in a win over the Warriors. The Knicks allow the seventh-most points to opposing point guards this season.

Payne’s big scoring bursts this past week have been keyed by him making at least four threes. He had six makes against the Warriors. Fortunately, the Knicks allow more made threes per game (3.65) to point guards than any defense in the league according to FantasyPros.

With Payne being a more aggressive scorer than Paul, let’s take what should be an easy over to start the Sunday slate.

Anthony Davis (Lakers) – Over 27.5 Points vs. Spurs

The Lakers have won consecutive games and Anthony Davis scored over 30 points in each win. That has not happened since the 2021 playoffs against the Suns when the Lakers took a 2-1 lead and things have been downhill ever since.

Hopefully this doesn’t mean another injury is on the horizon, because Davis has been great with 37 and 38 points these last two games.

Last season, Davis scored a season-high 35 points against the Spurs. A few weeks later, he scored 34 points against the Spurs. This year’s San Antonio defense is even worse, ranked 30th in points per game and 30th in Defensive Rating.

The possible return of LeBron James could complicate things for Davis’s scoring, but we are going to lean on the hot hand and take his over in this matchup.

Rebounds – Over/Unders

De’Aaron Fox (Kings) – Over 3.5 Rebounds vs. Pistons

This line should be a layup for Fox, who is coming off one of his least aggressive rebounding games this season with three boards against the Spurs.

But he has hit over 3.5 rebounds in 9-of-13 games this season, or 9-of-12 if you exclude the game he left injured after nine minutes.

The Pistons allow the fifth-most rebounds per game (6.97) to opposing point guards according to FantasyPros. The Pistons also allow the second-most rebounds per game (47.1) among all NBA teams this season. Confidently take Fox’s over here as the Kings look for another win.

Luka Doncic (Mavericks) – Over 9.5 Rebounds vs. Nuggets

With the Nuggets getting hit hard by COVID with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon in the protocol, the Mavericks had an easy 28-point win on Friday night.

Luka Doncic had a triple-double again with 33 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists. He did not have big numbers against the Nuggets last year, but he also wasn’t playing the real Nuggets in this matchup.

The same is likely going to happen on Sunday with the players set to still be out for the Nuggets. We won’t go for the triple-double prediction, but with Jokic out as a key rebounder, we like Luka to continue his recent tear on the glass and to record double-digit rebounds for the fourth game in a row. It would be a streak he hasn’t done since January 2021, but this is based largely on the opponent’s health situation.

Assists – Over/Unders

Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Over 6.5 Assists vs. Suns

Brunson was off to a great start on this road trip with wins over the Jazz and Nuggets with good stats, but then he hit a bump in the road in Golden State on Friday night.

Brunson had his worst shooting game of the season (2-for-13), tied his season low with 13 points, and he only had four assists, his third fewest in 16 games this season.

We think without Chris Paul, the Suns are going to play more shootouts like we have been seeing this week with the team last losing 134-133 to Utah.

Playing Brunson’s overs should be good value in this matchup, but we especially like the assists after his teammates shot just 4-of-14 on his potential assists in Golden State according to NBA.com. Take the over 6.5 assists, which he has hit in 10-of-16 games.

Draymond Green (Warriors) – Under 7.5 Assists vs. Rockets

All of Green’s lines look a bit inflated compared to what he usually does this season, but maybe some of that is the expectations against a 3-13 Houston team that is a 10-point home underdog.

The Rockets allow the most rebounds to power forwards this season according to FantasyPros, but Houston only allows the 10th-most assists per game.

Green has only finished over 7.5 assists in 4-of-15 games this season. His teammates just cashed in on 7-of-10 potential assists against the Knicks on Friday night, an above-average success rate as you expect to see something closer to 50-to-55%.

Even if the Warriors do blow out the Rockets, that would only strengthen the case for an under with Green not having to log as many minutes with the game in hand. But I would trust that he’ll finish in the 6-to-7 assist range as he often has this year.

Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders

Terry Rozier (Hornets) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Wizards

When these teams met a few weeks ago, Terry Rozier had the worst three-point shooting game of his season, finishing 1-of-9. According to NBA.com, Rozier was 1-of-7 on threes where he was open or wide open.

He came back the next game and was 5-of-13 from beyond the arc. He was 5-of-18 from three against Cleveland in a 10-point loss where he was trying to lead a comeback. That’s a lot of attempts and he may want to cut that number down this time.

But his efficiency is usually good enough that he can make over 2.5 threes on not that many attempts. Rozier has gone over 2.5 threes in 6-of-10 games this season. Look for him to do it here and make up for that poor effort against Washington on November 7.

Kevin Huerter (Kings) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Pistons

We avoided Red Velvet’s cold game against the Spurs the other night where he shot 1-of-5 from three, snapping a nine-game streak with multiple threes made. His over 2.5 threes line hit in eight of nine games as well before that dud.

But it wasn’t necessarily all a cold night as it was also a fourth quarter where he did not attempt a three as the Kings won by 18 points. When Huerter makes one three this season, it’s usually because he only takes four or five in the game instead of the six-plus he usually takes.

Over 2.5 threes is a line Huerter has hit in 10-of-14 games (71.4%) this season, an impressive mark since he only did it in 26-of-74 games (35.1%) last season with Atlanta.

He is probably not going to shoot 51% from three all season, but as long as they keep offering over 2.5 as the line instead of 3.5, it is an easy over to pick.