By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA wraps up the weekend with seven games on Sunday, including a Nets-Lakers game on NBA TV that was probably expecting the teams to have better records than they do.
With this many games to choose from for your prop bets and DFS lineups, we are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) – Over 27.5 Points vs. Knicks
When a player disappoints you statistically in a game, the instinct is to turn away from them the next game. But regression to mean might tell you to double down and bet that player again.
We had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander going over 27.5 points against the Raptors on Friday, but he ended up scoring just 20 points, only the fifth time in his last 24 games that he failed to go over 27.5 points.
However, this wasn’t a case of SGA playing poorly. He barely played in the second quarter as the Thunder made a big run, and with the blowout win in hand, he sat out the fourth quarter. He finished with a season-low 14 field goal attempts and only got to the line four times. His team won by 19 points.
But this isn’t the time to fade Gilgeous-Alexander. When he scored 24 points against the Clippers, he had 38 the next game in Dallas. When he only scored 18 points against Milwaukee, he came back with 33 points in Detroit.
He’ll bounce back in this one too.
Jamal Murray (Nuggets) – Under 19.5 Points vs. Bulls
Unless there is a mystery illness going around the Denver locker room, I like Jamal Murray to go under 19.5 points just as he has in 9-of-11 games this season, his big return season from injury.
But given there are betting lines for Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon, it doesn’t look like the Nuggets have a big injury in this game to worry about.
Murray is doing a fine job in returning from major injury, but he’s not back to the pre-injury level just yet. He is third on the team with 15.5 points per game and is shooting 43.1% from the field, which would be his lowest season since his rookie year.
The Bulls are a top eight defense against guards in terms of scoring this year. Murray still needs time to get back to being a consistent 20-point scorer.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Luguentz Dort (Thunder) – Over 3.5 Rebounds vs. Knicks
Here are some reasons to trust Luguentz Dort to hit his over in rebounds this Sunday afternoon against the Knicks:
- Dort has hit over 3.5 rebounds in 7-of-12 games this year, including four straight.
- Dort has tied his season high with seven rebounds in back-to-back games coming into Sunday.
- The Knicks allow the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing shooting guards according to FantasyPros.
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) – Under 10.5 Rebounds vs. Bulls
This feels sacrilegious, but we are going under with Nikola Jokic’s rebounds in this matchup with Chicago’s Nikola Vucevic. Both players have a line of 10.5 rebounds in this one, but the Bulls are allowing the fourth-fewest rebounds per game to opposing centers this season.
But the pick isn’t so much about Chicago as it is about Jokic in the last week. Jokic has not had more than eight rebounds in four straight games. The only time he’s done that since his third season was a four-game stretch in the 2020 pandemic bubble games.
The streak is even harder to believe when you consider Jokic had six games out of 74 last regular season with fewer than nine rebounds. Some of this has been the game script and a little foul trouble. Jokic played just over 20 minutes against Indiana when he had four rebounds, for example. Jokic’s shots are also up as he has taken 20 shots in three straight games.
But with the number at 10.5 and the Bulls having a formidable rebounder at center, the under still feels safe even if Jokic ends his streak of eight or fewer rebounds.
Assists – Over/Unders
De’Aaron Fox (Kings) – Over 5.5 Assists vs. Warriors
Two weeks into November, and this is already the third Kings-Warriors matchup of the season. But it’s the first to be played in Sacramento, hopefully providing a boost for the Kings who already played Golden State to two close finishes this year.
De’Aaron Fox had 10 assists in the first meeting and six in the second. He has gone over 5.5 assists in 5-of-10 games this year. Make that 5-of-9 if you remove the game left injured after nine minutes.
Fox also had six assists at home in his only meeting with the Warriors last season. The Warriors are below average at limiting assists to opposing point guards this season. Trust Fox to deliver again in this matchup as the Warriors are struggling on defense.
Russell Westbrook (Lakers) – Over 7.5 Assists vs. Nets
There is a fair chance LeBron James (groin) will be out again for this Sunday night showdown with Kevin Durant and the Nets. With James out on Friday night, Russell Westbrook had a season-high 11 assists.
It wasn’t just a one-game sensation either. In the last week, Westbrook has had nine assists against the Clippers and 10 assists in a game with Cleveland. He is averaging 6.7 assists per game this season and we know he is the triple-double record holder.
If James is out, this over becomes a no-brainer as someone is going to have to make up for the loss of a team-high 6.9 assists per game. Westbrook is the only other Laker averaging at least 3.0 assists per game this season. Trust him in this one.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Steph Curry (Warriors) – Under 4.5 Threes Made vs. Kings
Thinking of regression to the mean, is Steph Curry going to cool off here? He’s hit 40 points in his last two games, and that was on the heels of a 39-point game against Orlando. Curry has made 21 threes over his last three games.
We take runs like this for granted from Curry, but the fact is this is the 12th time in his career he has had at least six made threes in at least three consecutive games. All other NBA players in history have done that 26 times total.
But of the 12 times Curry has done it, he only extended it to a fourth game twice. His longest streak was actually last April-to-May with six straight games making at least six threes.
The line here is only 4.5, but we are predicting the cool-off game on the road where Curry has had all but one of his lowest-scoring games from three this season. While he is 7-of-12 from three in both games against Sacramento this year, he made exactly four threes in all three matchups last season.
Let’s cap him at four threes in this one.
Kevin Huerter (Kings) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Warriors
Let’s stick with the most interesting three-point shooting game this Sunday with the Warriors taking on the Kings for already the third time this season. The first two games were decided by no more than five points, so that’s a good feeling that it will be competitive and not a blowout.
Kevin Huerter had his worst shooting game of the season in Golden State earlier this year. He was 3-of-14 from the field and 1-for-8 from three. But two weeks later, he improved on his play with 3-for-6 from three in the rematch with the Warriors.
There is no reason he can’t hit over 2.5 threes in this game as well. He’s done it in 8-of-11 games this year and he just shot 4-of-9 from three against the Lakers on Friday.
