By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has a light four-game slate on the first NFL-dominated Sunday of November. We are looking at some of our favorite NBA player over/under picks to consider for your DFS lineups, fantasy over/under selections, and prop bets.
NBA DFS Prop Picks for Sunday Games
Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers (+3)
The Cavaliers look to continue their hot 7-1 start against the struggling Lakers on Sunday afternoon.
LeBron James: Under 2.5 Threes Made
Not that it’s too surprising the Lakers have had a terrible three-point shooting start to the season, but LeBron James is not holding up his end of the bargain either. James is shooting 20.7% from three. The only season in his career where he was under 30% was his rookie season (29.0%) way back in 2003-04 when he was 19 years old.
James is 0-for-12 from three over the last two games. He hasn’t made three from three-point territory since opening night, and even that required him to take 10 attempts.
The Cavaliers are a good defense right now, ranked No. 2 in Defensive Rating and points allowed. This could be another rough outing for the Los Angeles offense. Inevitably, James is going to have his bounce-back game from three at some point, but let’s not count on it to be this matchup.
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors (-1.5)
These teams will meet again on Monday night in Chicago, so they may want to put more energy and minutes on the starters in the front half of this back-to-back.
DeMar DeRozan: Over 25.5 Points
DeMar DeRozan returns to the team that drafted him in 2009, the Toronto Raptors. This has already been a wild week for DeRozan. He scored just nine points in an easy win over Charlotte, the first time he had single-digit points in a game with the Bulls. It was his second regular-season game with the Bulls this season where he failed to score 15 points, something that did not happen once last year.
But on Friday night in Boston, DeRozan scored 46 points in a losing effort to keep the Bulls close. That was his second-most prolific scoring game in a Chicago uniform as he was 20-for-22 at the free throw line.
What does DeRozan have in store for an encore against his old team? This will be the 11th time he’s played Toronto in his career. Five times he has gone over 25 points, but the most notable stat is that he’s scored 26-to-29 points in all four meetings as a member of the Bulls last year.
Let’s trust him to do it again as Chicago needs his scoring to pull this one out. The Raptors are not going to have Pascal Siakam, so there is no reason for DeRozan to not shine like the best player on the court.
Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies (-10)
The Grizzlies are averaging a league-high 118.7 points per game as they look for their seventh win in 10 games.
Ja Morant: Over 7.5 Assists
Morant had a season-low 12 points against Charlotte on Friday, his first game under 20 points this season. It wasn’t a great shooting night for him (4-of-12), but the number had as much to do with the game script as anything.
The Grizzlies were in control early before going on to win by 31 points at home. Morant only played 24:54 and put up 12 shots, both numbers being season lows. He also dished out a season-high 11 assists in the game as his teammates were strong.
This season, Morant has only played three home games, but he finished those games with seven, nine, and 11 assists. The only games where Morant was held down in assists were road losses where the Grizzlies were down big.
Being a 10-point favorite in this matchup, look for Morant to score more than he did on Friday, but he’ll also want to keep passing like he usually does and rack up the eight assists again as well. Washington just got crushed by Brooklyn, 128-86, and Kevin Durant had 28 points and 11 assists in that one. Morant could follow suit in this one.
Dillon Brooks: Over 16.5 Points
As we saw last postseason, Dillon Brooks can be a frustratingly inconsistent player. One night, he shoots 10-for-20 from the field and scores 24 points. The next game, he shoots 3-for-18, including 1-for-10 from three, and scores eight points. The next game, he goes 5-of-6 from three and scores 23 points in a road-clinching playoff win.
Those are not hypothetical lines. Those are the lines Brooks had in Games 4-6 of the team’s first-round playoff series with the Timberwolves last year. Against Golden State, we know Brooks was suspended for an altercation in Game 2, but he actually looked like Memphis’ best player in Game 6 with 30 points as the Warriors eliminated Memphis from the playoffs.
The point is, he can be very frustrating, but this points line is reasonable for him. Brooks scored at least 17 points in 21 of the 32 regular-season games he played last year.
Brooks was hot against the Hornets on Friday, connecting on 6-of-7 from three to score 23 points. He opened this season with a 4-point dud against Brooklyn, but we’re going to trust him to stay hot enough against Washington to score at least 17 on Sunday.
It’s not like it’s a playoff game.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers (-4)
The Jazz are the surprise of the league at 7-3, and they could pull off an upset here as the Clippers will again be without Kawhi Leonard as he manages his injury.
Paul George: Over 25.5 Points
The management of Leonard’s knee injury is one of the stranger stories in recent NBA history. So far, he has played in two games this season and averaged just over 20 minutes in each.
But all signs point to Leonard being out for the seventh game in a row after early reports were he would miss at least three games. Either way, this puts Paul George back in position to be the leader of this team. He got off to such a shaky start this year in that role, posting a 40-point game against the Kings but failing to top 16 points in his other four games.
But in the last three games, all wins by the Clippers, George has lit it up and scored 35, 28, and 32 points. It helps to play the Rockets twice and the Spurs, two of the worst defensive teams so far.
But the new-look Jazz are not an elite defensive team yet, ranked No. 12 in Defensive Rating and No. 12 in points per game allowed. It is surprisingly the offense that ranks No. 9 in Offensive Rating that has done more for the team. The Jazz have yet to hold any team under 100 points this season, something it did four times in its first 10 games a season ago when Rudy Gobert and company were still on the roster.
George can make you nervous, but not so much in November. With Leonard and Luke Kennard out for this one, the onus does fall on George to produce points. Let’s count on him to go past 25 points again for a fourth game in a row.
