By Scott Kacsmar
After a wild night of upsets in the NBA on Saturday, the Sunday slate has eight games with Timberwolves-Spurs on NBA TV in a surprising matchup of 4-2 teams. We are looking at some of our favorite NBA player over/under picks to consider for your DFS lineups, fantasy over/under selections, and prop bets.
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers have lost three in a row, including a pair to the Thunder. But they are still a 2.5-point home favorite against the Pelicans, who have a questionable Zion Williamson for this early afternoon tip.
Paul George: Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made
This has been a strange start to the season for Paul George, who has already logged one 40-point game, one absence due to injury, and he scored just 10 points in the last outing against Oklahoma City.
George was 0-for-4 from three against the Thunder, continuing a slow start as he is shooting just 25.9% from deep. With Kawhi Leonard set to miss another game in managing his injury, George has to be a scorer for the Clippers, especially against a top five offense like New Orleans.
But the Pelicans have a below-average defense, so count on this to be a game where George rebounds from his three-point drought and makes at least three in this game.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics
In a battle of 3-2 teams, the Wizards are an 8.5-point road underdog.
Kristaps Porzingis: Under 3.5 Assists
Porzingis has consistently ranked fourth or fifth in passes made in this Washington offense, which runs more through Monte Morris, Bradley Beal, and Kyle Kuzma.
This number for Porzingis’ assists stood out as high as he has yet to have four assists in a game this season, and he just had one against Indiana. According to NBA.com, Porzingis had four potential assists in that game, but his teammates only connected on one shot.
The Celtics allow the fifth-fewest assists per 100 possessions (21.6) this season. Boston also allows the fifth-fewest assists per game to big men this season. Porzingis played the Celtics twice last season (once with Dallas, once with Washington) and had three assists total in those two games.
Last season, Porzingis logged at least four assists in 11 out of 51 games (21.6%). We feel confident he will not set a season high in assists even if the Celtics have gotten off to a slow defensive start.
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland has been impressive with a 4-1 start after taking down the Celtics in overtime on Friday night. The Cavaliers are a 4.5-point home favorite in this one.
Caris LeVert: Over 16.5 Points
LeVert was stunningly good in Boston on Friday night with 41 points, matching teammate Donovan Mitchell with 41. LeVert even had more assists, threes made, and free throws than Mitchell in that game.
It was a huge departure from the first four games of the season where LeVert was a quiet contributor with 10-to-14 points in each game while he only shot 28.9% from the field. After going 12-of-21 in Boston, maybe his shot has been found again.
It also helps that Darius Garland (eye) remains out and the Cavaliers need the scoring slack to be picked up. LeVert is a solid scorer in this league. He got to 17 points in almost half of his games last season, and he did so three times in four meetings with the Knicks.
He won’t sniff 40 again on Sunday, but let’s ride the hot hand and trust LeVert to put in at least 17 points.
Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons
The Warriors started 18-2 last season before suffering their third loss, but they are already 3-3 this year. Detroit is only 1-5 and an 8-point home underdog here.
Bojan Bogdanovic: Over 19.5 Points
The Pistons were expected to have one of the most exciting young corps in the NBA with Cade Cunningham (21), Jaden Ivey (20), Saddiq Bey (23), and Isaiah Stewart (21) all 23 or younger. Yet, it’s the 33-year-old sharpshooter from Utah who is leading his new team with 23.0 points per game so far.
Maybe some of the inexperience with the Pistons is helping the reliable Bogdanovic get off to a good start. He is shooting the three very well as expected (51.1% this year and 39.4% for his career) and already has four 20-point games in six outings.
Bogdanovic has always been a bit of a homer when it comes to shooting. Last season for Utah, Bogdanovic shot 42.7% from three at home compared to 33.7% on the road. For his career, he is 41.7% at home and 36.9% on the road.
If you play the Warriors, it can get into a three-point shooting contest. Bogdanovic is the best choice the Pistons have there, and this Golden State defense is not playing up to par so far. Let’s trust Bogdanovic to deliver another 20-point game at home to hit his over.
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks
After another loss, Dallas is just 2-3. Orlando got its first win by beating the Hornets by 20 points on Friday. But the Mavericks are still a 9-point home favorite in this matchup.
Paolo Banchero: Over 23.5 Points
The No. 1 pick in the draft has come as advertised with six 20-point games to start his career in Orlando. He is shooting a respectable 46.5% from the field but did miss four free throws against the Hornets on an otherwise great night where he enjoyed his first win and had a season-high seven assists to go with 21 points.
The Mavericks have been a stingy defense against power forwards this season (No. 2 in fantasy points allowed), but Banchero is a different beast. There are not many teams in the NBA where the best offensive weapon is a power forward, but that is the case with Orlando.
Dallas has been disappointing so far, and we think Banchero will want to shine in a premiere matchup against guard Luka Doncic, one of the best in the game. He may not notch his first 30-point game in the NBA, but we like Banchero to go over 23.5 points in this one.
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
The largest spread of Sunday belongs to Phoenix, a 12-point home favorite over Houston (1-5).
Mikal Bridges: Over 15.5 Points
Bridges shined bright on Friday night with 27 points against the Pelicans. Normally, a big Bridges performance would have you fading him the next game and taking the under. But this might be different circumstances this year.
Center Deandre Ayton left Friday’s game early with an injury and will be out for a few games at least. That limits the scoring production at center for this team. We also know Chris Paul isn’t lighting it up much since he turned 37 years old. His 9.2 scoring average this season would be his career low.
Devin Booker is an elite shooter when he’s on, but you never know what he’s going to do after posting just 16 points against New Orleans while Bridges led the team in scoring.
Last season, Bridges played Houston four times and scored at least 16 points in all but one meeting. With Phoenix needing Bridges to be a scorer this week, we like his over against a bad team.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
For the Lakers to avoid being the only 0-6 team in the NBA, they will have to avenge a 110-99 loss to Denver last week. The Lakers are a 4-point underdog at home. Is this the first win?
Nikola Jokic: Over 11.5 Rebounds
The reigning two-time MVP has been all over the map as a scorer early in this season. Jokic has as many games with under 20 points (three) as he does games over 25 points. His season high was 31 points against the Lakers last week, but we are more interested in his rebounds.
Besides, Jokic has scored more than 25 points in just five out of 26 career meetings. But when it comes to rebounds, Jokic has had at least 12 boards in four of the last five matchups. A benchmark like 12 rebounds is something Jokic achieved 51 times in 74 games last season (68.9%).
The reason to like his rebounding in this one is that the Lakers are a terrible shooting offense, so there are plenty of opportunities. If you are going to trust Jokic or Anthony Davis to come down with the rebound, you should take Jokic in that matchup. The Lakers allow a league-high 49.5 rebounds per 100 possessions this season.
Finish off the Sunday slate by banking on Jokic to get at least a dozen boards.
