By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has 10 games this Friday evening, including an ESPN doubleheader with Warriors-76ers and Nuggets-Lakers. There will be no Steph Curry (shoulder) in that one. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) – Over 27.5 Points vs. Pacers
Mitchell is having an outstanding first season with Cleveland, averaging a career-high FG% (.502) and 3P% (.429). If he can keep it up, it will be his first season over 50% from the field and his first over 40% from three. He is even making his free throws at the highest rate of his career (89.3%).
In two games since his return from injury, he has scored 28 and 34 points. Mitchell has gone over 27.5 points in 18-of-25 games this season, a ridiculous 72% hit rate.
The Pacers are an excellent matchup too. Indiana just allowed Steph Curry to score 27 points before halftime the other night. The Pacers are a below-average defense that plays at the third-fastest pace in the league. Only two defenses (Spurs and Kings) allow more points per game to shooting guards according to FantasyPros. Mitchell has already scored 38 on the Kings and 28 on the Spurs this year.
Mitchell had 26 and 36 points in his two games against Indiana last year. But he is scoring and shooting better than ever. Let’s take his over in this one.
Trae Young (Hawks) – Under 29.5 Points vs. Hornets
Trae Young has scored exactly 19 points in three of his last four games coming into Friday night. His bad shooting season continues as Young is currently shooting a career-low 40.8% from the field. He is even taking fewer threes this season, so his effective field goal percentage (eFG%) is also a career low (.456).
Young has only hit 30 points nine times in 26 games (34.6%) this year. He played the Hornets in a 17-point loss in the third game of the season and scored 28 points that night.
Last season, the Hornets held Young under 30 points in 3-of-4 meetings, including one game where he scored just 9 points (only single-digit scoring game last regular season).
This line feels too generous for a player in a slump, so we will take the under for Young’s points.
Paolo Banchero (Magic) – Over 19.5 Points vs. Celtics
This is the “best scorer on a bad team against the best scoring team” matchup of the week. You don’t expect the Magic, a 13.5-point underdog, to win this game, nor do you really expect them to keep it close. But these teams did meet in the third game of the year and Orlando only lost by six points.
But the key thing is Banchero scored 23 points. For this rookie, 20-point games have been almost automatic. He has hit 20 points in 17-of-22 games (77.3%), and he was within a bucket of doing it three more times.
The Celtics are also more of an offensive juggernaut this season instead of a top-ranked defense like last year. The Celtics are only No. 10 in Defensive Rating and No. 13 in points allowed to power forwards according to FantasyPros.
Orlando has never been a bigger underdog (13.5) this season, but the Magic have won four in a row, and Banchero has scored 20 in 3-of-4 games as a double-digit underdog this month. He’ll be fine to do it again in this one, win or lose.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Fred VanVleet (Raptors) – Over 3.5 Rebounds vs. Nets
VanVleet has played the Nets twice this season. He had seven rebounds in the first matchup in October, then he tied his season low with one rebound two weeks ago. So, somewhere in the middle this time?
VanVleet is coming off easily his best game of the season despite the tough loss to the Kings where he missed the game-tying three in the final seconds. He had 39 points and eight rebounds, both season highs, and the game didn’t even go to overtime for him to do that.
Rebounding can be so random, but VanVleet has gone over 3.5 boards in 4-of-5 games. He won’t have eight rebounds again, but four is good enough for the over.
Assists – Over/Unders
De’Aaron Fox (Kings) – Over 5.5 Assists vs. Pistons
Fox has had an odd two weeks. He had just two assists in a passive game against the Bucks, missed the next two games, had just one assist in a 20-point loss to the 76ers, and then had 10 assists in Toronto with his highest point total (27) in weeks.
Looking at NBA.com’s tracking stats, the Kings passed the ball more frequently than usual against Toronto. Fox’s teammates buried 10-of-15 potential assists for him, an above-average shooting rate. That makes up for the Philadelphia game where Fox was 1-for-6 on potential assists.
From one assist to 10, some regression to the mean feels in play here. When Fox played Detroit about a month ago, he had seven assists, but it could have been much greater as he had 16 potential assists. If we can assume he’ll be a heavy facilitator against Detroit again, that bodes well for his over. The Pistons allow the seventh-most assists to point guards according to FantasyPros.
Fox has gone over 5.5 assists in 12-of-24 games, so it is a coin flip for him. We’ll take the over against the No. 29 defense.
Jalen Brunson (Knicks) – Over 6.5 Assists vs. Bulls
This is a rematch from Wednesday night’s overtime finish. Brunson finished with seven assists, but it could have been a better night as his teammates were only 7-of-14 on his potential assists according to NBA.com. Meanwhile, the Knicks shot 11-of-16 on the potential assists for Julius Randle and Immanuel Quickley.
Brunson has been over 6.5 assists in 14-of-28 games this year. His opponent consistency with assists has been solid when you look at his combo of games against the Grizzlies (nine and nine), Thunder (seven and nine), Hornets (11 and 13), and Hawks (five and six).
If he can get seven last time on 50% shooting, and you assume Randle’s numbers will go down, then Brunson should be able to get to seven assists here.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
James Harden (76ers) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Warriors
In the four games since his return from injury, Harden has made three or four from three-point territory in each game. He is shooting a solid 41.2% in these games from three.
The 76ers, an 8-point home favorite here, have also won three games in a row by double digits, and they may do it again Friday as the Warriors flat out stink on the road (2-13 record), and Steph Curry is out with a shoulder injury.
Point guards are averaging 3.17 made threes per game against the Warriors, according to FantasyPros. Only three defenses allow more threes this year.
It should be a great night for The Bearded One, who is also looking for a fourth-straight game with a dozen assists. But the game may be over too early for him to accumulate that statistic.
Anfernee Simons (Trail Blazers) Over 3.5 Threes Made vs. Mavericks
Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) Under 4.5 Threes Made vs. Mavericks
Damian Lillard is understandably getting the attention this week after he made 11 threes against Minnesota and followed that up with a 7-of-14 night against the Spurs. Eighteen threes in two games is absurd stuff.
But when Lillard played in Dallas a month ago, he was 2-of-7 from three. It was teammate Anfernee Simons who was 5-of-11 from three, and he is having his own incredible season from three-point territory.
- Simons has gone over 3.5 threes in 17-of-26 games (65.4%) this season.
- Lillard has gone over 4.5 threes in 7-of-16 games (43.8%) this season.
- Dallas allows the third-fewest made threes (2.29) to point guards (Lillard) according to FantasyPros.
- Dallas allows the 11th-fewest made threes (2.89) to shooting guards (Simons) according to FantasyPros.
We’ll play the numbers and go with Simons to stay hot and Lillard to cool down Friday night.
