By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has 10 games this Friday evening, including a doubleheader on ESPN featuring Lakers-76ers and Bucks-Mavericks. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Kevin Durant (Nets) – Over 27.5 Points vs. Hawks
The stars are out Friday night with Kevin Durant’s Nets meeting Trae Young’s Hawks for the first time this season. Young’s scoring line is four points higher than Durant’s, but the future Hall of Famer is on a better scoring tear right now.
Durant has gone over 27.5 points in 16-of-26 games this season, and if you were placing a bet with alternate lines, you might be sly enough to lower it a point to 26.5 as he has gone over that in 20-of-26 games. Durant has scored at least 26 points in all but three games this season.
Durant has had at least 29 points in six of his last seven games as this home stint has been very productive for him.
Durant played the Hawks three times last year and scored 55, 32, and 31 points in those games. The 55 was last April and the most recent meeting. It also is the highest point total Durant has had in any game in his NBA career.
We don’t need 55, but let’s trust the Slim Reaper to go over again.
Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) – Over 19.5 Points vs. Wizards
Haliburton returned to action after a two-game absence and scored 26 points on his best shooting game of the season, making 9-of-14 shots (64.3%) and five threes. This made up for his last two games where he was offensively poor with 23 total points and 31% from the field.
This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams, and the Wizards have been a good opponent for Haliburton. He scored 26 points on opening night and had 25 points in the rematch a little over a week later. He shot over 50% from the field in both games.
Haliburton has five games with at least 25 points this season and two of them are against the Wizards, a below-average defensive team.
But Haliburton only needs a 20-point game here to hit his over. He has scored 20 points in 13-of-23 games this season.
The Pacers should be happy to be home after a seven-game road trip where they went 2-5. In his last home start, Haliburton scored 21 points in a win over the Nets. Eight of his 13 games with 20 points have been at home this season.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Bol Bol (Magic) – Over 7.5 Rebounds vs. Raptors
Holy regression alert, Batman. When the Raptors and Magic met six days ago, the Magic had an embarrassing effort with 29 rebounds. But in the very next game against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee, the Magic had a season-high 52 rebounds.
This was despite not having top rebounder Wendell Carter Jr., and Bol Bol (season-low two rebounds) only played 18 minutes. Two days later, and with the help of overtime, the Magic again set a season high with 53 rebounds in a win over the Clippers. Bol had nine rebounds in that one.
Now Bol and the Magic get a second shot at the Raptors this week. He has gone over 7.5 rebounds in 11-of-26 games, but he was a role player to start the season. When Bol plays at least 27 minutes, he has gone over 7.5 rebounds in 10-of-14 games.
He is coming off one of his best games with 20 points and nine rebounds. Look for him to be active at home and get his over in rebounds.
Jalen McDaniels (Hornets) – Over 4.5 Rebounds vs. Knicks
McDaniels is coming off a game with seven rebounds against the Nets, tied for his second-highest total in a game this season. He has gone over 4.5 rebounds in 14-of-25 games (56%) this season.
These teams met back in October and McDaniels had six rebounds despite only playing 22 minutes that night. The Knicks allow the 10th-most rebounds to small forwards according to FantasyPros.
Assists – Over/Unders
James Harden (Nets) – Over 8.5 Assists vs. Lakers
The Bearded One made his return after missing 14 games to injury. Against Houston, he struggled with his shot by going 0-for-8 from two-point territory. He also had just seven assists and four rebounds, which are low numbers for Harden. He also played 38 minutes in the loss, so the 76ers felt good about his conditioning to play him that long.
According to NBA.com, Harden’s teammates were 7-of-12 on his potential assists, which is a solid rate, but we know the team can do better. The Lakers allow the second-most assists per game to point guards this season according to FantasyPros.
Harden has gone over 8.5 assists in 7-of-10 games this season. Last season, he was over 8.5 assists in 44-of-65 games (67.7%), so he is very reliable for this. The Lakers are also vulnerable to giving up assists. Harden had double-digit assists in 2-of-3 games against the Lakers last season.
Look for Harden to play a stronger overall game in his second game back and hit his over in assists.
Khris Middleton (Bucks) – Over 3.5 Assists vs. Mavericks
Middleton is looking to play in his fourth game this season after recovering from wrist surgery. So far, the team has kept his minutes under 30 as he gets his conditioning back. He has taken 11 shots in each game and isn’t doing a ton of scoring yet.
But Middleton’s passing has been very strong. He has had assist totals of 7, 5, and 6 in his three games so far despite not playing many minutes.
Part of this success has been outstanding shooting by his teammates. Middleton has achieved 18 of a potential 24 assists according to NBA.com, so his teammates are making 75% of his passes. That’s not going to be sustainable but asking for four assists from Middleton against Dallas should be more than doable.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Devin Booker (Suns) – Under 2.5 Threes Made vs. Pelicans
The Suns (16-9) still have one of the best records in the league, but the Pelicans (16-8) have one fewer loss. The Suns also come into this one with ugly 19-point and 27-point losses to the Mavericks and Celtics.
Devin Booker was 1-for-6 from three against the Celtics and finished as a minus-40 when he was on the court. Ouch.
Booker has only made one three in each of his last three games. He has gone over 2.5 threes in 8-of-25 games this year, so less than a third of the time. Booker has been under 2.5 made threes in 11 of his last 14 games coming into this one.
These teams last met in October in Phoenix and Booker had 16 points and was 0-for-4 from three. In his last trip to New Orleans in the playoffs, the Suns clinched Game 6, but Booker shot 1-for-6 from three and scored 13 points.
Booker is going to have a sharpshooter night any day now, but let’s bank on this being another under performance from beyond the arc.
Ja Morant (Grizzlies) – Over 1.5 Threes Made vs. Pistons
These teams just met five days ago, and it was a solid 10-point win for the Grizzlies. Ja Morant had 33 points and 10 assists. He was 3-of-7 from three, and he has made multiple threes in his last four games.
Morant has gone over 1.5 made threes in 12-of-21 games this season. The improved shooting he showed in the playoffs seems to be carrying over as Morant is making 37.9% of his threes this season after making 34.4% last season.
With Morant starting to take and make more threes, we should be able to trust him to hit a couple on Friday night against Detroit.
