By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has 11 games this Friday evening, including a doubleheader on ESPN of Lakers-Bucks and Bulls-Warriors. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Devin Booker (Suns) – Over 28.5 Points vs. Rockets
If you asked the other night what Booker could have for an encore after 44 points against the Kings, few would have guessed 51 points against the Bulls. It was a stellar performance with Booker shooting 20-of-25 from the field.
The last time Booker went for over 50, he followed up a 59-point game with a 50-point game in March 2019. No one has been able to go for 50 points in more than two straight games since the great Kobe Bryant was the most recent to have a four-game streak in 2007.
But Booker just needs 29 points to hit his over here. He scored 30 points against Houston a month ago despite shooting 1-of-7 from three and 1-of-3 from the line. The Rockets are one of the worst defenses against guards as well.
Booker is feeling it, and the Suns could use a nice distraction if you’ve been checking social media, so let’s go with him to hit the over again even if he finishes with a basic 30-point night.
Franz Wagner (Magic) – Over 17.5 Points vs. Cavaliers
These teams met in Cleveland in the fifth game of the season and Wagner was able to score 22 points, the same number he had Wednesday night in a loss to Atlanta.
Wagner has gone over 17.5 points in 16-of-22 games this season, a very good hit rate. The line is likely smaller than expected here because of how the Cavaliers play the second-slowest pace and rank No. 1 in points allowed and No. 2 in Defensive Rating.
Cleveland also allows the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing small forwards according to FantasyPros. But we have already seen Wagner score 22 points against this team.
Wagner (19.6) is the second-leading scorer on the team, and third-leading scorer Wendell Carter Jr. (16.6) remains out with injury, not to mention Cole Anthony. Wagner has been the beneficiary here with at least 17 points scored in 15 straight games.
Let’s hope for 18 here.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Kristaps Porzingis (Wizards) – Under 9.5 Rebounds vs. Hornets
If your position has been that Porzingis is a bit soft and disappointing for a 7-foot-3 player, then this week has been tough for you since he is doing some rare things to show his aggression.
Porzingis had a career-high 41 points against Minnesota the other night. He followed that up with a career-high 19 rebounds against Brooklyn. What does he have for an encore against Charlotte? Career high in assists?
What we do know is this will be the third meeting between the two teams this season. Porzingis had eight rebounds in each of those games. He has not stacked double-digit rebound games all season, and he only did so one time last season. Porzingis has gone over 9.5 rebounds in 7-of-21 games, or a third of the time this year.
We can just go back two weeks ago when Porzingis had 17 rebounds against Miami. Two days later he was at home against Charlotte and finished with eight rebounds.
Unless this is the week – over 350 games into his career – when Porzingis decides to turn it on as an elite 20/10 player, we are going to fade him and take the under in rebounds.
Brook Lopez (Bucks) – Under 5.5 Rebounds vs. Lakers
Lopez has been under 5.5 rebounds in 7-of-9 games coming into Friday night. In a matchup where you’ll have Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, and LeBron James on the court, it just does not feel like one where Lopez is going to be the aggressive 7-footer getting a bunch of rebounds. The Lakers have also been making more shots and leaving fewer bricks in recent games.
Maybe Lopez can work on his shot in this one. He was 1-of-5 from three against the Knicks on Wednesday.
Assists – Over/Unders
Pascal Siakam (Raptors) – Over 5.5 Assists vs. Nets
The Raptors have not played Siakam a ton of minutes (30 and 33) in his first two games back from a 10-game absence due to injury. But he has been productive for the team with 23 points in his last outing, and he should get back to playing heavier minutes after a day off on Thursday.
Siakam has been having a great season as a passer with 7.1 assists per game compared to a career average of 3.2 assists. He has overtaken Fred VanVleet as the team’s leader in assists, and we have already seen Siakam have three games with at least 11 assists this season.
One of those games was against Brooklyn in October when Siakam’s teammates buried 11-of-15 potential assists for him according to NBA.com. The Raptors still lost that game in the fourth quarter, but it was a great triple-double for Siakam, who also had 37 points.
On Wednesday against the Pelicans, Siakam’s teammates were not as sharp. They made just 4-of-13 potential assists for him.
Siakam has gone over 5.5 assists in 8-of-11 games this season, including eight games in a row prior to his injury. Let’s bank on him to play a few more minutes against the Nets and hit that over again on a better shooting night from the Raptors as they were 11-for-38 from three in New Orleans.
Collin Sexton (Jazz) – Over 5.5 Assists vs. Pacers
Utah guard Collin Sexton has started the last six games for the injured Mike Conley, and that will continue on Friday night against the Pacers. In the last six games, Sexton has averaged 6.2 assists, and he has gone over 5.5 assists in 4-of-6 games.
The Pacers play the fourth-fastest pace in the league, and they allow the ninth-most assists per game to opposing shooting guards according to FantasyPros.
Utah had been struggling with a five-game losing streak before beating the Clippers on Wednesday. Utah is No. 26 in Defensive Rating, so the team has been in a lot of shootouts this year. If the fast-paced Pacers come to play in this one, then we can see a good offensive game with plenty of points and assists. Trust Sexton to hit his over in this one.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Zach LaVine (Bulls) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Warriors
LaVine is in his worst two-game shooting slump from three in over a year. He finished 1-of-6 from three in back-to-back games. He had not gone multiple games with under two made threes or shot 2-of-12 over two games since he did it early last season in two games.
LaVine has gone over 2.5 threes in 9-of-17 games this year, so it is something he usually does half the time as one of Chicago’s best shooters.
When you play the Warriors in Golden State, you better be sharp from three, because you know they are going to go on their runs and practically force you to match. Let’s assume that is the case again and LaVine snaps out of his slump with a solid game to hit over 2.5 threes.
Jrue Holiday (Bucks) – Over 1.5 Threes Made vs. Lakers
Holiday just had his best scoring game since his return from injury with 22 points against the Knicks. He made multiple threes for the second game in a row. Earlier this season, he had a five-game streak with multiple threes, including several games with four or five makes.
We know the Bucks are missing Khris Middleton’s three-point shooting this year, so Holiday has been attempting a career-high 5.9 3PA per game to compensate for that loss.
The Lakers have been posting some big point totals in their last few games since LeBron James returned, so this could be a solid offensive game on ESPN in the early window. Look for Holiday to play well at home and hit a couple threes.
