By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA gets ready for the weekend with 11 games this Friday evening, including a doubleheader on ESPN with Bucks-76ers and Knicks-Warriors. We are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) – Over 31.5 Points vs. Grizzlies
Hard to go against a player who is on this hot of a scoring run. SGA burned us one week ago when he only produced 20 points against Toronto, but that was more about the game script than anything. He had a season-low 14 field goal attempts.
But he just scored a season-high 42 points against Washington, which was his third-straight game with at least 37 points. Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over 31.5 points in 10-of-14 games this season, an incredible rate for the young guard. Memphis allows the eighth-most points to shooting guards this season according to FantasyPros.
The Thunder do not have a second-leading scorer with 15 points per game this season. As much as the Chet Holmgren foot injury sucks for this team, it seems to have taken SGA’s game to another level. Let’s ride this wave for another over.
DeMar DeRozan (Bulls) – Under 24.5 Points vs. Magic
Last season, DeRozan scored at least 25 points in 63.2% of his games, a solid number for a player who had a career year.
This season, we are riding a rollercoaster as DeRozan has finished two games with 9 points while also dropping 46 points in Boston. Five of his top six scoring games have actually come on the road this year.
DeRozan has scored over 24.5 points in 7-of-15 games, so it is about a coin flip. But since he scored 28 in his last game and the Magic allow the third-fewest points (18.73) to small forwards according to FantasyPros, we will back the under in this one.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Joel Embiid (76ers) – Over 10.5 Rebounds vs. Bucks
You had to figure Joel Embiid would show up somewhere as we look for his encore to one of the greatest performances in NBA history the other night. Against Utah on Sunday, Embiid finished with 59 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists, and 7 blocks.
Just a masterclass performance, now Embiid gets to shine in a marquee matchup with Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. When the teams met a month ago in the second game of the season, it was a forgettable day by Embiid. He scored just 15 points, his fewest ever against the Bucks, and the 76ers lost by two points.
But Embiid did have 12 rebounds. He has gone over 10.5 rebounds in 10-of-13 career matchups against the Bucks, which is a must-have if you are going to hang with Giannis.
With the 76ers having several days off since last playing on Sunday, look for a fresh Embiid to come in off his best game and hit his over in rebounds.
Bradley Beal (Wizards) – Over 4.5 Rebounds vs. Heat
Beal returned for his first game back in two weeks and he had six rebounds against the Thunder. It was only the fourth time in 10 games this year that Beal had over 4.5 rebounds as he played 37:51, his second most playing time in a game this year.
Beal’s rebounding numbers are not great, and the Heat also allow the second-fewest rebounds per game to opposing shooting guards this season.
However, Tyler Herro is out for Miami, and he is their third-leading rebounder. Bam Adebayo, the leading rebounder, is questionable with a knee injury that kept him out of the last game.
If Adebayo and Herro are out for this one, that’s 15.5 rebounds per game the Heat need to replace. There is value is Beal getting his over in this one as he was over 4.5 rebounds in 23-of-40 games last season.
Might not be worth a play if Adebayo suits up but keep an eye on the active list.
Assists – Over/Unders
Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) – Over 10.5 Assists vs. Rockets
We are seeing Haliburton shine in his third season as he is up to 20.6 points per game and currently leads the NBA with 10.4 assists per game. These are big improvements on his career averages of 14.9 points and 7.2 assists per game.
Haliburton is currently on a four-game streak with at least 11 assists. Earlier this season he had a five-game streak with double-digit assists, so he has done it before this season.
The good news is the Houston Rockets allow by far the most assists per game (11.03) to point guards according to FantasyPros. The next closest defense is San Antonio (9.70), who Haliburton had 12 assists against.
Haliburton should be a great pick for a big night against a 3-12 team that ranks No. 28 in Defensive Rating.
Mike Conley (Jazz) – Over 7.5 Assists vs. Suns
We know the Suns are still an elite team that ranks No. 3 in both Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating. But Utah has been impressive with a 10-6 record despite some shooting mistakes from Mike Conley as of late (more on that below).
But when it comes to assists, he still leads the Jazz with 8.1 assists per game. At age 35, that would be the highest average of his career as his previous high is 6.5 assists with Memphis over a decade ago.
Conley’s assist numbers would be even greater if his teammates made a few more shots in the last two games. According to NBA.com, Conley achieved 8-of-21 potential assists against Philadelphia and 7-of-17 potential assists against the Knicks. That’s only 39.5% of his assists cashing in.
With both games under 50%, that is below the season average for Conley, who has 121-of-219 potential assists (55.3%). Last season, over a large sample size, 49.8% of Conley’s potential assists were good, which is about the average you’d expect to see for a quality point guard.
Let’s trust Conley’s teammate to shoot better on his assist-worthy passes in this game and to hit his over.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Mike Conley (Jazz) – Over 1.5 Threes Made vs. Suns
We are double dipping on Conley as we continue being stubborn on this one until he proves us right and snaps out of the slump. Conley is now 2-of-17 from three over his last four games after going 1-of-6 against the Knicks.
We thought the return home where he was shooting 56.5% would help, but he just could not get that second one to fall despite trying more threes than usual for him.
But we still like this matchup for Conley. The Suns are allowing 3.47 made threes to point guards, which ranks as the third most in the NBA this season according to FantasyPros.
Teams do not shoot a ton of threes against Phoenix, but 38.1% of them have gone in when they do and that ranks No. 7 in the league. The Suns have been playing without Chris Paul and he is questionable again with that heel injury. It could be a shootout in Utah, so Conley better end this slump now.
Klay Thompson (Warriors) – Under 3.5 Threes Made vs. Knicks
It is still hard to believe that Golden State made 18 threes in Phoenix, Steph Curry scored 50 points, and the Warriors still lost by 11 points. But that can happen when you allow 130 points and 21 threes.
Now the Warriors are back home against the Knicks, and it might be easy to go for a cooling off night from several of their players from three-point territory. Curry made seven against Phoenix, but Andrew Wiggins also had four, and he has yet to make three in consecutive games this season.
But if we look at how the Knicks have fared at allowing threes to different positions according to FantasyPros, we see an edge (the higher the rank, the better for Golden State’s offense):
- Knicks vs. point guards: 3.50 threes made (No. 2)
- Knicks vs. shooting guards: 2.92 threes made (No. 16)
- Knicks vs. small forwards: 3.35 threes made (No. 2)
Klay Thompson has been up and down this season. He made three threes in Phoenix. He’s gone over 3.5 threes in 5-of-12 games. We’ll go with the under in this matchup on what could be a good night for Wiggins again if these numbers play out.
