By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA gets ready for the weekend with eight games on Friday night, including Nuggets vs. Celtics on NBA TV and Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies later on ESPN. With this many games to choose from for your prop bets and DFS lineups, we are looking at some of our favorite over/under props grouped by the markets for points, rebounds, assists, and three-point field goals.
Points – Over/Unders
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) – Over 27.5 Points vs. Raptors
In his fifth season, Gilgeous-Alexander seems to have taken the big leap as a scorer. He is averaging 31.6 points per game, improving on his career average of 18.6 points per game.
We already saw glimmers of this late last season in what became an injury-plagued season on a bad team. When he returned in February, he averaged 30.4 points per game over his last 13 games. He scored at least 28 points in 11-of-13 games to end that season, and SGA has picked up from there with 28 points in 8-of-10 games this season. That is 19-of-23 games for him going back to last year.
So, he has been money as a scorer and is coming off a season-high 39 points against the injured version of the Bucks. You should confidently expect SGA to go over in this matchup with Toronto.
Jakob Poeltl (Spurs) – Over 11.5 Points vs. Bucks
The Spurs could be catching a break if Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday sit out another game for the Bucks. Milwaukee allows the fewest points per game to opposing centers as one might expect with Giannis, but his absence would open an easy opportunity for Jakob Poeltl to continue doing what he’s done most games this season.
Poeltl recently has had some single-digit scoring games, but on Wednesday against Memphis, he scored a season-high 22 points. He has hit 12 points in 8-of-12 games this season.
Poeltl scored at least 12 points in 45-of-68 games (66.2%) last season. If Antetokounmpo is indeed out again, there is no excuse for him to not go over in this one.
Rebounds – Over/Unders
Anthony Davis (Lakers) – Over 10.5 Rebounds vs. Kings
Betting any over on Anthony Davis always comes with anxiety as you just hope he finishes the game without a scratch. But this is a nice opportunity with LeBron James out with a groin injury.
James is second on the team with 8.8 rebounds per game, so those boards are going to have to be picked up somewhere. Davis is leading the Lakers with 10.2 rebounds per game and has gone over 10.5 rebounds in 4-of-10 games. We know he can do it, but hopefully LeBron’s absence is the motivation for him to dominate.
Beyond LeBron being out, the Kings are one of the best teams at limiting rebounds to guards, so instead of the extra boards perhaps going to Russell Westbrook, we’ll just trust Davis to go a board above his average on Friday night.
Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves) – Over 11.5 Rebounds vs. Grizzlies
This is the first rematch since last year’s playoff series, which was won by the Grizzlies. The teams look a bit different now as the Grizzlies went small in that series with Steven Adams barely playing any minutes. Adams is back with an over/under 10.5 rebounds, but he’ll face a tough opposing center in Rudy Gobert, the new acquisition to the Timberwolves that has led to mixed results early in the season.
Gobert is still leading the NBA with 13.6 rebounds per game, but Minnesota is only ranked No. 17 in Defensive Rating. Still, Gobert has cleared 11.5 rebounds in 6-of-10 games so far. Memphis was one of four teams Gobert had 21 rebounds against in a game last season, and he already has games this year with 21 and 23 rebounds.
We’ll give Gobert the nod over Adams in that matchup and for him to go over in rebounds.
Assists – Over/Unders
RJ Barrett (Knicks) – Over 2.5 Assists vs. Pistons
The Knicks were blown out 112-85 by the Nets on Wednesday in a game that was essentially over after one quarter. The offensive numbers were not good across the board, but RJ Barrett did notch over 2.5 assists for the third game in a row and the fourth time in his last five games.
Now the Knicks get a rematch with the Pistons, the only team they’ve blown out this year with a 24-point win three weeks ago. Barrett had four assists in this one, and hopefully the game will be even closer so he can stat pad a little more.
Barrett has gone over 2.5 assists in 6-of-11 games this season. The Pistons are allowing the sixth-most assists per game to shooting guards. Let’s go with Barrett to hit another easy over.
Aaron Gordon (Nuggets) – Under 2.5 Assists vs. Celtics
Aaron Gordon is hands down the most annoyingly high-variance player for the Nuggets from a props’ perspective. He’ll give you 26 points one night and six points the next. He’ll give you nine rebounds, then follow it up with one board the next game. Those are real examples from this early season that he’s already done.
But against Indiana on Wednesday, Gordon was in rare form with 18 points, 16 rebounds, and six assists. Now with a tough trip to take on Boston, you expect the regression to hit on a disappointing night for him.
Which area is the best to choose? We’ll go with the assists since he usually doesn’t get this many as he’s had 11 the last two games. Gordon had two assists total in two meetings with the Celtics last season. His under 2.5 assists line would have hit in 40-of-75 games (53.3%) last year and in 6-of-11 games this year.
But the other reason to take his under is that the Celtics allow a league-low 1.9 assists per game to power forwards according to FantasyPros.
Three-Point Field Goals – Over/Unders
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) – Over 3.5 Threes Made vs. Warriors
Donovan Mitchell’s move to Cleveland has started very well. The team is 8-3, Mitchell is averaging 31.9 points per game, and he is shooting 44.8% from three. His career high in 3P% is 38.6%, so if he could keep this up, he’ll easily have his best season yet in the NBA.
In the last two games, Mitchell has made 14-of-25 from three. He had at least six makes in both games. It is hard to expect a player to keep that up, but Mitchell is no stranger to facing the Warriors.
Mitchell has played this Golden State dynasty 16 times and only has one 30-point game when he was with Utah. However, he made over 3.5 threes in half the games. In seven games in Golden State, it was 5-of-7 times that he made at least four threes.
Let’s go with Mitchell to stay hot enough to make at least four threes as the Warriors continue to struggle defensively at 4-7.
Kevin Huerter (Kings) – Over 2.5 Threes Made vs. Lakers
For our final pick in the final game of the night, let’s go with Red Velvet to show the Lakers how to shoot a three. The Lakers are still the only team shooting under 30% from three this season.
Huerter has made over 2.5 threes in 7-of-10 games with his new team. It’s been a hot start as he is shooting 50.7% from three. He was consistently a 38% three-point shooter with the Hawks.
