By Scott Kacsmar
The NBA has a big 12-game slate this Friday evening, including a doubleheader on ESPN with Bulls-Celtics and Bucks-Timberwolves. We are looking at some of our favorite NBA player over/under picks to consider for your DFS lineups, fantasy over/under selections, and prop bets.
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards (-2.5)
Totally uneventful week for the Brooklyn Nets. They only parted ways with head coach Steve Nash and suspended controversial guard Kyrie Irving. Nothing else happening here.
Kevin Durant: Over 6.5 Assists
This is not the situation Kevin Durant could have imagined in Brooklyn. James Harden was traded last year, Nash was ousted at head coach, and now who knows what becomes of Irving.
Without these pieces, let’s bank on Durant being more of the facilitator to keep this team going. He only has one game with seven assists this season, but he is more than capable of doing it as he did it 27 times in 55 games last year. You might as well say an even 50% of the time if we remove the game where he was injured after 12 minutes.
So, seven-plus assists have been a coin flip for Durant in Brooklyn. Take Irving out of the lineup and put an average Washington defense on the other side, and I like the over outcome in this one.
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers (-3)
The Knicks (3-4) will try to keep the 76ers (4-5) from getting back to .500.
Jalen Brunson: Over 5.5 Assists
Coming over from Dallas, Jalen Brunson is doing a decent job on a not-so-stellar roster for the Knicks. He is leading the team in points (18.4) and assists (6.9), and both of those averages would easily be career bests for the point guard stepping out of Luka Doncic’s shadow.
Brunson has had at least six assists in five of the first seven games this season, so he has been reliable at this number already. In his last game against Atlanta, he only had five assists, but it was a poor shooting night for the team as the Knicks shot 41.1% from the field.
The 76ers are only 22nd in Defensive Rating so far. Trust Brunson and the Knicks to shoot a bit better, and he should have another game with at least six assists.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons (+6.5)
Cleveland is 6-1 with half the wins coming in overtime. But the Pistons are off to another slow start with a 2-7 record.
Cade Cunningham: Under 21.5 Points, Over 6.5 Assists
Cade Cunningham is coming off his worst game of the season in the 25-point loss against Milwaukee. He scored a season-low 10 points, never got to the free throw line, failed to make a three, and only took 13 shots.
This looks like another matchup where he could be down in scoring, but he will hopefully have more assists:
- Cunningham had seven games with double-digit assists last year and two of them were against Cleveland.
- Cunningham faced Cleveland four times and failed to log 20 points in any of the games.
- Cunningham has at least seven assists in five of the first nine games this season.
- Cleveland’s defense allows the fewest points per game to guards this season.
Take the under in points, over in assists for Cunningham in this matchup.
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-7)
The Bulls could not buy a win against an elite team last year, but they have already beaten the Celtics and Heat this season.
Ayo Dosunmu: Over 11.5 Points
Dosunmu has scored at least 12 points in five out of eight games this season. But the real reason to promote him in this game is that he had a season-high 22 points against the Celtics earlier this season when he finished 4-for-4 from three.
He is 3-of-13 from three since that game, but Dosunmu has some shooting ability in him. He has four 20-point games in the NBA and half of them are against Boston. In fact, the only two games in his career where he was perfect from three on at least three attempts were both against Boston.
Here’s to hoping lightning strikes a third time for Dosunmu against Boston. It may also help that DeMar DeRozan is in a little slump after scoring just nine points the other night. Asking Dosunmu to drop in 12 as a starter is not asking for much.
Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies (-11.5)
Memphis is a considerable favorite in this matchup, but it is only the team’s third home game this season after completing a four-game road trip (2-2 record).
Desmond Bane: Under 3.5 Three-Point Field Goals Made
Ja Morant: Over 1.5 Three-Point Field Goals Made
Desmond Bane has really been feast or famine this season. He has four games with 29-plus points and three games where he failed to surpass 16 points. He has made multiple threes in every game, though he has only hit at least four of them in three games.
Last season, Bane played Charlotte at home and scored a season-low 2 points while going 1-for-10 from the field and 0-for-7 from three, his worst shooting game of the season. He fared much better in the rematch with 25 points despite a season-high seven turnovers, so the Hornets were not an easy matchup for him last year.
The Hornets have not had a great start to this season, but opponents have shot just 31.8% from three against them, the second-worst rate in the NBA. Bane also was a player last year who shot 39.1% from three at home and 47.6% on the road.
We like Bane to go under four threes in this matchup, and we also like taking Ja Morant to show off his improved three-point shooting and make at least two for a good over in this matchup.
Toronto Raptors at Dallas Mavericks (-4)
The Mavericks continue to ride a historic start to the season behind Luka Doncic.
Luka Doncic: Over 31.5 Points
How can you say no to the hot hand who just did something that hasn’t been done since Wilt Chamberlain? Luka Doncic is the first player since Chamberlain in 1962 to start an NBA season with seven 30-point games.
He is the Dallas offense right now. The sportsbooks were crafty in Doncic’s last outing where he finished with 33 points despite a line of 33.5 points. But at 31.5 points and him gunning for 30 again, we feel pretty safe that he’ll get another basket after crossing the 30-point barrier again.
Doncic had 41 points in January the last time he played Toronto. The Raptors allow the second-fewest points to point guards this season, but Doncic is proving he is a special player with this consistently hot start. Let’s bank on it to continue for at least another game.
