By Scott Kacsmar
This Friday night in the NBA features 11 games, including a doubleheader on ESPN with Pacers-Wizards and Pelicans-Suns. We are looking at some of our favorite NBA player over/under picks to consider for your DFS lineups, fantasy over/under selections, and prop bets.
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons
These teams just met in Detroit on Wednesday night, a 118-113 win by the Hawks. Atlanta is a 6-point favorite this time, but we know the game is not going to be a carbon copy of Wednesday night’s effort.
John Collins: Over 16.5 Points
Atlanta forward John Collins was able to score 19 points on Wednesday, coming up just shy of his third 20 point-game in four outings this year. Collins rebounded from an ugly 3-of-12 shooting game in the team’s only loss so far to Charlotte.
But that game aside, Collins has made nine field goals in the other three games. He is 0-for-8 from three over the last two games and should get back on track in that department soon.
Collins had 17 and 22 points in two meetings against the Pistons last season. He is second on the Hawks this season with 19.0 points per game. He may not score more than 20 points, but he should be able to hit his over of 16.5 again. The Pistons are one of five teams allowing over 120 points per game in this young season.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
In a battle of 3-1 teams, the Cavaliers are a 6-point road underdog in what could be a good one.
Donovan Mitchell: Over 5.5 Assists
Cleveland point guard Darius Garland remains out with an eye injury after playing just 13 minutes of the opener. Donovan Mitchell has to continue holding down the fort until Garland can return, and the Cavaliers have won three in a row after dropping that opener to Toronto.
Mitchell needs to continue trusting his new teammates and being more of a facilitator. Mitchell has had eight or nine assists in three of the four games this season.
In Mitchell’s last trip to Boston with the Jazz last season, he finished with 37 points but only one assist as the Jazz lost by 28 points. When Mitchell had 34 points and six assists in Utah, he beat the Celtics.
As a 6-point underdog this time around, Mitchell is going to have to trust his teammates and keep making plays instead of just being a scorer in this matchup.
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards
These teams met in the season opener with the Wizards winning 114-107. Washington is a 5-point home favorite in this rematch.
Kyle Kuzma: Over 7.5 Rebounds
If the stock market fluctuated the way Kyle Kuzma’s rebounds do, society would be in a constant panic. Not many players can have a three-game run on rebounds with totals of 13, six, and two like Kuzma. He just did that to start this season, but the 13 was against Indiana, a team he had two double-digit rebound games against last season.
The Pacers play the fourth-fastest pace in the league, but they are not good at shooting, ranked 26th in FG% (.438). The Pacers shot just 40.2% against Washington last week when Kuzma was able to pull down the 13 boards.
Kuzma will have some really prolific rebounding games, then he’ll immediately turn around and have two rebounds in a loss to Cleveland like he did the other day.
But we like the mismatch of Wizards-Pacers for Kuzma to get his share of boards again against one of the weaker offenses in the league.
Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves
The 0-4 Lakers may have to keep searching for their first win this weekend as they take on the Timberwolves as an 8.5-point road underdog.
D’Angelo Russell: Over 3.5 Rebounds
The Lakers are off to a historically bad start to shooting the three this season. They are only making 22.3% of their three-point shots during this 0-4 stretch.
The long misses are helping opponents to 53.0 rebounds per game, three more than any other team in the NBA. This is good news for the rebounding numbers of the opponents, regardless of position. Point guards are averaging 7.3 rebounds per game against the Lakers, which ranks as the sixth-highest average this season.
Enter D’Angelo Russell. The former Laker may have some motivation to shine extra bright against the team that drafted him in 2015 and quickly discarded him. With a low bar for rebounds here, Russell has already had five rebounds in three out of five games this season.
It may only be even odds for him to hit his over, but let’s go with it as we assume the Lakers are going to continue struggling with their shot in this one.
Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
This is another rematch from Wednesday night as the Raptors beat the 76ers 119-109. Toronto is a 1.5-point home favorite as it looks to drop Philly to 1-5.
Joel Embiid: Over 2.5 Assists
Embiid has gotten off to anything but an MVP-caliber start, but the juicy number here is his assists. Embiid had at least three assists in 53-of-68 games (77.9%) last regular season. Any time you can get a prop that’s over a 75% hit rate, it is hard to pass up.
Embiid has had at least three assists in four-of-five games this season, including three assists in Toronto on Wednesday. It is worth noting in the only game where he did not hit three assists this year, it was the 14-point win over Indiana where Embiid only had to play 28 minutes.
If he plays 35-plus minutes, he is getting his over in assists here. Period.
New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are the only undefeated team left in the NBA right now, but they have only played three games as well. The Bucks are a 7-point home favorite against the Knicks.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Under 33.5 Points
Giannis was incredible in the second half against the Nets, finishing with 43 points in the comeback win. It was his second 40-point game in a row. The last time he did that, he scored just 25 points in a Game 7 loss against the Celtics. Something tells me the 2022-23 Knicks are not going to be as good as those Celtics.
But it is hard to keep producing at this ridiculous level night after night, and a player does need to pace himself early in the season. The Knicks may not even need Giannis to hit his scoring over if the rest of the team shows up.
Last season, the Knicks faced Antetokounmpo four times and held him to 25 or less three times. Not bad work even if the Bucks did win three of the games.
That is the expectation here. Milwaukee will win comfortably, and Giannis will finish a little short of his over.
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns
The Pelicans look good after a 3-1 start, but this is still a Phoenix team that knocked them out in six games in the first round last year. The Suns are a 6.5-point home favorite in this game.
Deandre Ayton: Over 17.5 Points
Ayton was a beast in the playoff series last year. He shot 70% from the field and averaged 20.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Ayton scored at least 19 points in all but one of the six games of the series.
Ayton also scored 18 and 20 points in his last two regular-season meetings against the Pelicans. He has not scored more than 16 points in the last two games this season, but they were also easy wins over the Warriors and Clippers where Ayton did not even log 30 minutes.
The Pelicans should put up more of a fight with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming in overtime to Utah. We also know Chris Paul is not putting up many points like he did in that first-round playoff series against the Pelicans last spring. Ayton needs to pick up the slack, and Devin Booker won’t be stringing together 30-point games forever. His off night will come sooner than later.
But Ayton is still by far their best option in the paint, and Paul hasn’t lost his ability to find the big man for easy baskets. He should get to at least 18 points in this game.
