By Scott Kacsmar
The 2023 NBA Draft takes place this Thursday evening from Brooklyn, New York. A total of 58 selections will be made, and France’s Victor Wembanyama is a heavy favorite (-20000 at many sportsbooks) to go No. 1 to the San Antonio Spurs.
Wembanyama is the easy choice at No. 1, but is he deserving of the most hype for a player since LeBron James 20 years ago? Which other players are expected to go high, are they the right fits for these teams, and are there any good props to bet on for this draft?
We break down what to expect from the 2023 draft below.
A baseball in Victor Wembanyama’s hand 🤯 pic.twitter.com/eXcZqzK7nh
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) June 20, 2023
Victor Wembanyama’s Draft Class
The 2023 NBA draft class will be defined by what kind of player Victor Wembanyama becomes. If he is the superstar he is hyped to be, then that will reflect positively on the class. If he is a bust, then that could sour the whole class as there are some experimental players in this class with most of the top five expected to be players who did not go to an NCAA school.
But Wembanyama is touted as the next big thing, and even LeBron James has referred to him as a generational talent. It would be a monumental feat for “Wemby” to become a dominant player as the NBA has never seen a player 7’3” or taller average over 20 points for his career.
Wembanyama stands at 7’4” with an 8-foot wingspan. The top NBA scorer near that height in history is Washington’s Kristaps Porzingis, who averages 19.6 points per game and has already been used as a comparison for Wemby.
But Wemby is considered a much better prospect with the ability to shoot 3s and block shots. He played in France’s LNB Pro A where he led the league last season in points (21.6), rebounds (10.4), and blocks (3.1).
With legendary head coach Gregg Popovich still coaching the Spurs, we know Wembanyama will be in good hands to start his career. He gets the Porzingis comparisons, but he reportedly is trying to model his game off players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant.
Fans who watched Yao Ming (7’6”) with great anticipation know durability at that size is a huge issue in the NBA. It would be exciting to see someone this big with the ability to score and defend at a high level become the next face of the NBA.
Going to the Spurs with a history of big men like David Robinson and Tim Duncan is a good spot for Wembanyama.
"No one knows my second name."
— NBA (@NBA) June 21, 2023
Victor Wembanyama reveals a secret during 20 Questions with the Class of 2023! pic.twitter.com/ZOZAS7Qwqd
Brandon Miller No. 2 to Charlotte?
The No. 2 pick was looking like a close battle between Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson, but the closer we get to draft night, the more it looks like Miller (-300 at bet365) is the pick for Charlotte.
The forward from Alabama won the SEC Player of the Year award in helping the team to an incredible season as its best player with 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds. He can also shoot the 3, which would fit the team’s philosophy well with LaMelo Bell taking 10.6 3s per game last season.
Miller did have a rough March Madness where he shot 8-of-41 (19.2%) from the field, the lowest FG% by any player in the NCCA tournament since 1985 (min. 35 FGA). But after his one stellar season at Alabama, there is a lot of potential here and Miller should be one of the safest picks in this class.
Also the smartest one for Charlotte.
Does Scoot Henderson Get Traded Right Away?
With Scoot Henderson now likely being eyed with the No. 3 pick, there is a good chance he could be drafted by Portland and traded Thursday night to a team like the Pelicans or Wizards.
The Trail Blazers obviously still have Damian Lillard at point guard, and he seems content with staying put and trying to win in Portland instead of joining a super team elsewhere. That makes Henderson a questionable value for Portland this high, so there is value in trading him to a team that’s more needy for a point guard.
Henderson’s claim to fame is that he is the youngest player in NBA G League history. He was only 17 when he signed with the G League’s Ignite. He played in 10 games and averaged 14.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game.
Henderson drew offers from plenty of schools, including Georgia, Florida, and Auburn, but he chose the G League route, which changed in 2020 when it started allowing players who were not yet 19 to join for $125,000 a year. This is one of the alternatives for players who do not want to go the one-and-done route at an NCAA school to become eligible for the draft.
Henderson is still considered a top point guard prospect in this class, but the presence of established point guards on teams picking this high are why he will likely be moved elsewhere on draft night.
Meet the Thompson Twins
Two players expected to go in the top 10 are Amen and Ausar Thompson, a pair of twins from Florida who helped their high school win a state championship. They also joined the Overtime Elite (OTE) league in Georgia instead of attending colleges.
Even more, than the NBA G League, there is a question about the level of competition in OTE, which has only been around for two seasons. But the Thompsons shined there, helping the City Reapers win the championship.
Amen is considered the better prospect as an athletic, playmaking point guard while Ausar is no slouch as a shooter. It was actually Ausar who was named MVP of the Finals in the OTE.
But there is a solid chance Amen ends up as the point guard of the Rockets, who have used top 3 picks in the last two drafts on Jalen Green and Jabari Smith. Amen’s passing would ideally help those two emerging players shine for new coach Ime Udoka.
A lot of mock drafts view Ausar as a good pick for Orlando at No. 6 (+170 at bet365), and that would make sense a year after they took Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero at power forward. Orlando has not had a player average of 6.0 assists per game since Elfrid Payton in 2017-18.
If the Thompson twins are successful at the NBA level, that will give a lot of credibility to the OTE as another pipeline for future professional players.
The Thompson Twins have had an incredible journey… so let’s go back to where it all started ⏪ pic.twitter.com/RFWNcmwqgj
— Overtime Elite (@OvertimeElite) June 16, 2023
Cam Whitmore and Detroit’s New Big Three
There was some hope for the Detroit Pistons to start turning things around this past season, but they finished 17-65, the worst record in the NBA. Their reward from the lottery is the No. 5 pick in the draft, and one of the favorites to be selected with that pick is Villanova forward Cam Whitmore.
Whitmore would be Villanova’s first one-and-done player since Tim Thomas in 1997. He had a strong debut season for the team, averaging 12.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game. He has some 3-point shooting ability and could help the defense.
Detroit has already used very high picks on guards the last two drafts, acquiring Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. There is a hole at forward, and new coach Monty Williams would be wise to get Whitmore in that slot as he tries to get results out of this young team after coming over from Phoenix’s veteran core.
Some sportsbooks see Houston power forward Jarace Walker as the more likely pick for Detroit at No. 5. If the Pistons want to go the defensive route, that is certainly an option. But Detroit also ranked No. 29 in scoring last season, so either pick is feasible.
Anthony Black for the Wizards
Finally, a pick that could be a great value to bet on for this draft is where Arkansas guard Anthony Black ends up. In one season with Arkansas, Black averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 2.1 steals per game.
Black is a two-way guard who could be a nice pickup for the Washington Wizards at No. 8. Black is +130 at bet365 to go No. 8, -300 to go under 8.5 in the draft order, and -225 to be drafted ahead of Taylor Hendricks. All three bets look like good ones for this draft prospect.
The Wizards have a hole at guard after trading Bradley Beal to Phoenix for not as much as expected in return. Black could help fill that void as Beal averaged 23.2 points and 5.4 assists per game last season. But he is gone after 11 seasons with Washington.
