By Ian Wharton
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
St. Louis will try to bounce back from a rough start to the second half of the season when it faces Toronto on Wednesday night. The Cardinals have lost three of their first four games since the All-Star break, including a 10-3 setback on Tuesday. Toronto has now won all four of its games to open the second half.
Cardinals sliding in NL Wild Card race
St. Louis has been an inconsistent team this season, which is why it has not been able to take control of the National League Central. The Cardinals used a nice stretch to get 10 games above the .500 mark in the middle of June, but they lost eight games in a 10-game stretch earlier this month. They were able to bounce back with five wins in their final seven contests prior to the All-Star break, but they have fallen back into a rut since then. St. Louis dropped two out of three in its series against Cincinnati over the weekend before getting blown out in Tuesday’s 10-3 decision. The Cardinals are three games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central, but they are a half-game ahead of Philadelphia for the final NL Wild Card spot.
They have been a solid offensive team, ranked ninth in the MLB in batting average (.251). First baseman Paul Goldschmidt leads the way with 118 hits, including 24 home runs. He will be facing a Toronto pitching staff that is No. 16 with an ERA of 3.93. Veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright is going to be on the mound for St. Louis on Wednesday night. He is coming off a terrible start, allowing seven earned runs on five hits and three walks across 5.1 innings against Cincinnati his last time out. Wainwright had allowed just five home runs through his first 13 starts of the season, but he has now allowed eight homers over his last six starts. He still has a strong 3.40 ERA and 91-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio overall this season, though.
Gausman continues to lower ERA
Toronto has had its ups and downs this season as well, including a stretch that featured nine losses in 10 games earlier this month. The Blue Jays responded with five wins in its final six games prior to the All-Star break, including three straight over Kansas City to conclude the first half. They have been able to extend their winning streak to seven games with a three-game sweep at Boston and Tuesday’s 10-3 win over St. Louis. Toronto is probably not going to compete with New York in the AL East, but the Blue Jays are two games ahead of Tampa Bay for the top AL Wild Card spot.
They have been the best offensive team in the majors, batting at a .268 clip. Shortstop Bo Bichette leads the way with 104 hits, while first baseman Vlad Guerrero Jr. has 103 base knocks. They will be facing a St. Louis pitching staff that is No. 14 with an ERA of 3.90. Right-handed starter Kevin Gausman is going to take the bump for Toronto in this game. He allowed three runs on seven hits across five innings against Boston in his last start, striking out 10 batters inn the win. Gausman gave up two home runs in the fourth inning, but he has only allowed five homers through 18 starts this season. The 31-year-old has posted a 2.42 ERA since June 16, lowering his overall season ERA to 3.00.
Toronto has certainly been in much better form than St. Louis of late, but this line has been inflated too much. Wainwright is one of the most experienced starters in the MLB, and he has put together another strong season. He might be facing the top hitting team in baseball, but I will gladly take him at +215. Wainwright is also backed up by a top-10 offense in the majors, so this is just too heavy of a number on the Blue Jays. Gausman has been able to lower his ERA to 3.00, but that is only slightly better than Wainwright’s number. I think the value is definitely on the Cardinals as road underdogs.
Prediction: St. Louis ML
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
The New York Yankees and New York Mets wrap up their brief subway series on Wednesday night in Queens. The Yankees have stumbled a bit recently, 5-5 heading into this series, and are now battling the LA Dodgers for the best overall record in baseball. The New York Mets are in their own battle, for the NL East Division title, as they battle the Braves for supremacy. The pitching matchup for Wednesday’s series finale will be Domingo German (0-1, 15.00) of the Yankees taking on Max Scherzer (6-2, 2.28) of the Mets. First pitch is scheduled for 7pm EST.
Kings of Queens?
The first-place New York Yankees roll into Queens looking to continue their series lead on the road against the Mets. The Bombers are 4-6 in their last ten games in Queens but are 12-8 in their last 20 and 37-30 all-time on the road against the Mets. This series marks the first matchup of the crosstown rivals this season, a season in which both teams have held the lead in their respective divisions for nearly the entire season. The Yankees come into this game struggling a bit with just a 5-5 record heading into Tuesday night’s matchup. On Tuesday night, the Yankees jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead but watched the Mets pound their way back into the game and fell 6-3 in game one of series. Aaron Judge blasted his Major League-leading 38th home run in the loss.
The Yankees have avoided the injury bug, particularly to their starting staff, for much of their dominant season. In the past few weeks, however, the Yankees have found themselves frequenting the IL. The Yankees are curently without starting pitcher Luis Severino along with relievers Michael King and Miguel Castro. On Tuesday afternoon, the Yankees placed all-star OF Giancarlo Stanton on the IL with Achilles tendinitis while fellow outfielder Aaron Hicks is day-to-day with hamstring tightness. On the mound on Wednesday night, in Severino’s spot in the rotation, will be right-hander Domingo German. German just came off the IL to make his first start of the season against the Astros last week in the second half opening doubleheader. German was touched for six hits and five runs, including two home runs in just three innings of work vs. the Astros.
Mad Max to the Rescue
Just a few short weeks ago, the Mets looked like they were losing their stranglehold on the NL East and were in dire need of help. Along came Max Scherzer off of a seven-week stint on the IL and the Mets have regained their stride. In the 17 games since Scherzer has returned, the Mets have gone 10-7 but, more importantly, have been able to protect its taxed bullpen thanks to Scherzer’s efforts. The Mets as a team have made 12 quality starts in those 17 games with Scherzer accounting for four of those quality starts. More help may soon be on the way as long-time Mets ace Jacob deGrom continues to rehab his right shoulder in the minor leagues. On Tuesday night, it looked like it might be a long night for Taijuan Walker and the Mets after the Yankees connected for back-to-back home runs in the first inning. In the bottom of the inning, the Mets hit two home runs of their own and scored four times to take a lead they wouldn’t relinquish. Walker would go six innings, allowing seven hits and three runs to pick up his 8th win of the season.
With the Mets pitching getting all the attention with the return of Scherzer and the eventual return of deGrom, the Mets potent lineup has taken a backseat. Last week, the Mets filled a need by trading for Pittsburgh Pirates slugging DH/1B Daniel Vogelbach. Vogelbach gives the Mets much needed pop from the left side and brings his 12 home runs and .430 slugging percentage to Queens. The Mets may not be done dealing as the team can still add to its bullpen depth and bench strength as the August 3rd trade deadline grows closer. Scherzer will take centerstage in the finale of this brief series on Wednesday night. He faced the Yankees twice last season and went 0-1 with a no-decision. He also struck out a whopping 25 batters in the two games.
German looked extremely shaky in his season debut against the Astros and fared poorly against two of the top hitters in the Astros lineup, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. German’s hard hit rate was a respectable 35% but his K rate was frighteningly low at 11%. This will not bode well for him against the Mets’ better hitters, particularly slugging DH Pete Alonso and SS Francisco Lindor. On the other side of the diamond, the Mets will turn to their ace, Scherzer, in hopes of taming the Yankees’ potent offense. As noted above, Scherzer racked up serious strikeout numbers last season against the Yankees last season and he’s currently averaging 11.8 K’s per 9 innings. This is the perfect time to be squaring up against the Bombers with Stanton out and their bullpen slightly banged up.
Take the Mets with the money line.
Prediction: Mets ML
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday will see the continuation of a four-game series between the Cleveland Guardians and the Boston Red Sox, two teams who are battling to get into one of those final wildcard spots in the American League. Boston earned the victory in the first game of the series, winning 3-1 on Monday. This preview was written prior to the conclusion of Tuesday night’s game.
Entering Tuesday’s action, Cleveland finds themselves 3.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the AL Central lead and are 3.0 games out of the wildcard chase, tied with the Red Sox. They are 5-5 in their last 10 but have lost their last three entering Tuesday’s game.
The Red Sox were in a funk, going 1-9 leading in their last 10 games entering the series. That dropped them 3.0 games behind Seattle for the final wildcard spot in the AL. Boston enters as the favorite at -135 with the line set for Cleveland at +115. Boston has won four straight games against Cleveland and is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Lack of Clutch Hitting Dooms Guardians in Opener
The Cleveland Guardians left nine men on base and went 1-7 with runners in scoring position, falling to the Boston Red Sox on Monday, 3-1. Zach Plesac allowed three runs in 5.0 innings, then the Guardians bullpen was spectacular, tossing 3.0 scoreless innings. However, the team could muster just one run.
The Guardians offense has been solid the season, 16th in runs per game (4.44), but it has been a complete lack of power that has stopped this team from making a big run. Cleveland has hit just 74 home runs, 29th overall, and they are 19th in runs scored (414). They have been a little bit better in July offensively, hitting 18 home runs and batting .272 in 22 games.
Cleveland starts right-hander Cal Quantrill, who is 7-5 with a 3.75 ERA in 18 starts. Quantrill began the month with two tough outings, allowing 10 total runs in his first 10.0 innings, but he has been great over the last two, allowing two total runs in 11.0 innings. The right-hander faced the Red Sox once the season already, allowing two runs in 5.0 innings back on June 24. Quantrill is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA in three career starts against Boston.
Slump Has Red Sox Desperate for Victories
It is hard to imagine that just 16 days ago the Boston Red Sox were eight games above .500 and held the top spot for the AL wildcard. However, they have gone 2-9 since and are struggling to get back into the race, as three teams have passed them meaning they would be on the outside of the postseason looking in if the season were to end today.
The Red Sox took the first step in the right direction on Monday when they defeated Cleveland, 3-1. Nick Pivetta gave them 5.2 innings of solid work before his day was over, allowing one run while striking out six. John Schreiber earned the victory with 1.1 innings of scoreless relief and Garrett Whitlock closed off the contest, getting the final six outs for his second save of the season. Now they hope that Nathan Eovaldi can give them a similar performance. The right-hander is 4-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 14 starts. He was absolutely hammered in his last outing, giving up nine runs in 2.2 innings, and has given up 12 runs in 7.0 innings in July.
The Red Sox are going to need to supply some offensive support to win this game, and they are 12th in runs scored (4.61) and 17th in home runs (93). The Red Sox offense has been pedestrian at best in July, hitting .234 with 24 home runs in 21 games.
The Red Sox are 24-23 at home entering Tuesday’s contest while Cleveland is 23-28 on the road. That must have oddsmakers a little skeptical of the Guardians pulling off the victory here, but this pitching matchup clearly screams for Cleveland to earn the victory.
Eovaldi was spectacular in June but is getting hammered in July. He had tossed 11 scoreless innings to begin June before going on the disabled list and has not seen his command return. On the other side, Quantrill has been getting better as the month is going along, and gives the Guardians a huge advantage in this contest. Boston may have defeated Cleveland the last four times, but that streak is coming to an end.
Prediction: Guardians ML
