By Ryan Gilbert
MLB Pitcher Strikeout Props #1: Over for Ober
Bailey Ober (MIN) over 3.5 strikeouts (-140 @ BetMGM) vs. KC
Ober had a good start to the year through April and May before going down with an injury. He had at least four strikeouts in five of his seven starts through June 1st before missing over three months. He returned from the IL with a five-strikeout performance in Cleveland on Friday.
Now, Ober’s strikeout line is only at 3.5 — a mark he’s surpassed in six of eight starts. That includes both starts against Kansas City this season with a total of nine punchouts.
The Royals are around the middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate and that’s not good enough for me to lay off of this Ober over. Dating back to the start of last season, Ober has 4+ Ks in 22 of 28 starts, including all four starts against KC.
MLB Pitcher Strikeout Props #2: Caught in a Webb
Logan Webb (SF) over 4.5 strikeouts (-105 @ DraftKings) vs. COL
I would probably still take this bet if it was a strikeout higher. Webb has 6+ strikeouts in over half of his starts (16 of 30) this season, including in his lone start at Coors Field back in May.
He also has four starts with exactly five strikeouts, bringing his over 4.5 record to 20 of 30 starts, including four straight before facing the Dodgers last time out.
Simply put, Webb has had 5+ strikeouts in two thirds of his starts this season and the Rockies are striking out the sixth-most (26.4%) against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. Count on Webb to get at least five strikeouts again.
MLB Pitcher Strikeout Props #3: Dunn(ing) deal
Dane Dunning (TEX) over 4.5 strikeouts (-149 @ Pinnacle) vs. LAA
The Angels strike out in 27% of their at-bats against right-handed pitching, which is the most in the league overall and second-most (27.5%) over the last 30 days. Dunning has found success against Los Angeles as well with 6+ strikeouts in three of his four starts against them.
Overall, Dunning has 5+ strikeouts in 16 of 28 starts this season, including two straight and three of his last four.
Given how Dunning has performed overall this season as well as against the Angels, and how poorly Los Angeles swings the bat, I’m pretty confident in this hitting at -149.
