Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays will close out a three-game series on Thursday afternoon at Tropicana Field. After Seattle took the series opener by an 8-4 final to hit as a +120 underdog, the teams will meet again late on Wednesday night after the time of publishing. The Mariners own the AL’s best record at 11-6, while Tampa Bay is off to a 9-8 start this season.
Despite Tampa Bay owning the AL’s best record in 2021, the Mariners took six of the seven meetings and are 23-9 against the Rays since the end of 2015 overall.
Mariners use huge fourth inning to beat Rays
The Mariners have surged to the top of the AL with seven wins in their last eight games, and continued their surprising dominance over the Rays with a victory in Tuesday’s opener. With the help of some horrendous defense, Seattle plated seven runs in the fourth inning, with two scoring on an error before Julio Rodriguez added an RBI double and Adam Frazier cleared the bases with a triple.
Logan Gilbert leads the Majors in ERA after throwing 5.2 shutout innings, allowing just two hits and three walks while piling up seven strikeouts. Eugenio Suarez was on base three times, while Ty France added another two RBI to his torrid April.
“When they give you an extra out or two, you’ve got to take advantage of it,” said manager Scott Servais via MLB.com. “In the past, we haven’t been able to do that.”
The Mariners have been a strong bet early on with a positive mark on the money line while going 11-6 on the run line. Overs are 9-8 for the Mariners, and each of their last three games has gone over the betting total.
Seattle’s offense has been on fire lately, rising to third in the Majors with 5.00 runs per game on a .737 combined OPS. The Mariners are also top five on the pitching side with a 3.02 collective ERA including a mark of 3.09 from the bullpen.
France is all over the MLB leaderboard in several categories with a 1.075 OPS, five homers and 21 RBI. J.P. Crawford has also been terrific, batting .356/.466/.559 with eight driven in and eight runs scored.
Chris Flexen will be on the mound for Seattle in the finale looking for a second straight win after limiting the Kansas City Royals to one run on six hits over seven innings while striking out five. The 27-year-old revived his MLB career in 2021 after a stint in Korea, and is now 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA over 17.1 innings this season.
Outfielder Mitch Haniger, who slugged 39 homers last year, is expected to be activated from the COVID list on Thursday, while manager Scott Servais and top reliever Paul Sewald cleared protocols earlier in the series. 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis is still recovering from a torn meniscus, while first baseman Evan White underwent sports hernia surgery. Relievers Ken Giles (finger discomfort) and Sergio Romo (shoulder inflammation) are out, while key bullpen arm Casey Sadler will miss the entire season due to shoulder surgery.
Sloppy defense costs Rays in series opener
The Rays were building some momentum with two straight series wins heading into Tuesday’s contest against Seattle, but made some uncharacteristic mistakes with two errors to lead to the huge inning for the Mariners. All of Tampa Bay’s scoring came in the seventh inning with Rene Pinto launching his first career homer before a long ball from Wander Franco, yet the Rays were down too much to stage a rally.
Matt Wisler was effective as the opener, allowing two hits across two scoreless innings while striking out two. Josh Fleming took the loss for allowing seven runs in two innings, but all of those were unearned. Pinto had two hits in his MLB debut, while Brandon Lowe had two singles and scored a run.
Just a rough inning for all of us,” said skipper Kevin Cash via MLB.com. “[Pitcher Josh Fleming] did some good things getting the ball on the ground. We didn’t help him defensively like we normally do. It snowballed from there. They found holes. Everything that could go their way went their way.”
The Rays are down a bit on the money line for the season as they have been a favorite in most games while going 7-10 on the run line. Overs are 7-9-1 for the Rays, and Tuesday’s opener against Seattle is their only over in the last four games.
Tampa Bay has been solid at the plate, putting up an average of 4.41 runs per game on a .712 OPS. The pitching grades out better, ranking seventh in the Majors with a 3.28 ERA including a sparkling mark of 2.93 from the bullpen.
Ji-Man Choi has been red hot to start the season, batting .357/.491/.595 with two homers and 10 RBI. Franco is also living up to his lofty prospect rankings with a .338/.352/.647 line, four homers, 12 RBI and 13 runs scored.
While no official starter has been announced in what is expected to be a bullpen day, Jalen Beeks will likely be the bulk pitcher after picking up the win against the Chicago Cubs last Wednesday with two perfect innings. The 28-year-old has allowed no runs, two hits and two walks over his first 7.1 innings of the season while striking out 11.
Catcher Francisco Mejia is currently on the COVID IL, which paved the way for Pinto. Tampa Bay is missing all kinds of pitching depth, starting with ace Tyler Glasnow (Tommy John surgery) and highly-touted rookie Shane Baz (elbow surgery). Yonny Chirinos (fractured elbow), Brendan McKay (thoracic outlet syndrome), Ryan Yarbrough (strained groin) and Luis Patino (strained oblique) are also out of the rotation. Tampa Bay is also down a few of its best relievers, with Nick Anderson (UCL surgery), JT Chargois (strained oblique), Pete Fairbanks (strained lat), Chris Mazza (back spasms) all on the IL.
The Mariners are looking like a legitimate contender early on using some of the improvements they made last year in addition to crucial offseason additions, giving them value at plus odds. Tampa Bay isn’t totally clicking in all facets like we’ve seen in previous years, and Flexen can be relied on to deliver consistently quality outings.
Beeks has a ton of promise, but two bullpen games in three days will seriously test the depth of the Rays, particularly considering their lengthy IL list that includes possibly their best two relievers in Anderson and Fairbanks. This will be a tough test, as Seattle now leads the Majors with a 127 wRC+ at the plate behind newcomers like Suarez and Adam Frazier adding some much-needed length to the order.
Flexen resurrected his career in 2021 with an 87 ERA-/93 FIP-, and his combination of limiting walks and home runs makes him a steady starter. The Mariners have owned this matchup lately, and are worth betting as they look better than the Rays in April.
Prediction: Mariners ML (+100)
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies (9-10) will host the Colorado Rockies (10-8) on Thursday in the final game of a four-game series. The Phillies will be going for a sweep with a win on Wednesday.
Rockies dropped 3rd straight Wednesday
The Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela to the mound looking to salvage a game before they head back home to face the Reds in a three-game series. Senzatela is 1-1 with a 4.73 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. He allowed 10 hits and five runs in a 13-0 loss to Detroit on Saturday, including Miguel Cabrera’s 3,000th hit. In six career appearances against Philadelphia, Senzateal is 0–2 with a 4.40 ERA.
Colorado has been outscored 25-8 in the first three games against the Phillies. On Wednesday, after falling behind 2-0, the Rockies tied the game in the third inning, but the Phillies answered with two more runs in the bottom of the inning. Colorado would cut the lead to 4-3 in the top of the sixth, but the Phillies answered with a run in the sixth. Philadelphia added two more in the seventh, to conclude the scoring for the game. In the loss, the Rockies had 12 hits but went 2 for 10 with runners in scoring position. CJ Croon hit his team-leading seventh home run and raised his RBI total to 18.
Phillies getting back on the Wheel(er)
After getting off to a sluggish start to the season, the Phillies have broken out in this series against the Rockies. On Wednesday, Philadelphia only went 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position but drove in runs on two sacrifice flies and a ground out. Odeubel Herrera hit his second home run of the season in the first inning and drove in two runs for the game, along with Didi Gregorius, who also plated two runs. It was a strong group effort, as Bryce Harper went 3 for 4 with two runs scored, Alec Bohm went 2 for 4 with one run and one RBI, and Nick Castellanos went 2 for 3 with a home run.
Zack Wheeler will make the start on Thursday. In 2021, Wheeler went 14-10 with a 2.78 ERA, 1,01 WHIP, and 247 strikeouts, on his way to finishing as the National League Cy Young runner-up. This year Wheeler is 0-3 with an 8.53 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He allowed seven hits and four earned runs in Saturday’s 5-3 loss to Milwaukee. Wheeler is 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA in three career starts against the Rockies. It’s worth noting that Wheeler only allowed one earned run in 6 2/3 innings in a win over Colorado last season. His two subpar performances against the Rockies were in 2014 and 2018.
This series has been lopsided with the Phillies taking each of the first three games by at least three runs. The Rockies will have a tough time salvaging a game behind Antonio Senzatela, who since the beginning of last season is 1-8 with a 5.32 ERA on the road. With the Phillies sending one of the best pitchers in baseball to the mound first, I like them to get a sweep. Wheeler’s numbers may not look good through three starts, but he is a proven ace who has a career 3.57 ERA. He also had a 2.38 ERA at home last season and went 7-2 with a 1.91 ERA in day games. The Phillies will get another run line win.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-110)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s the final game between a pair of teams looking to make a move in the AL Central as they clash in the Windy City. The Kansas City Royals are on the road as they close a three-game series with the Chicago White Sox Thursday afternoon. In the opening game of the set Tuesday night, it was the Royals blanking the White Sox 6-0. Chicago rebounded by earning a 7-3 victory in the middle game of the series Wednesday afternoon. Which team earns the upper hand in the rubber game and claims the series? We take a look at the contest and give you our thoughts below, so take a couple minutes to read on.
Kansas City Royals Look to Leave Windy City With Series Victory
Kansas City battled but inevitably was unable to come up with the victory on Wednesday in the middle game of the series. The Royals entered Wednesday night tied for second in the AL Central, two games behind the Twins for the division lead. On Wednesday, Kansas City rallied from 3-0 down to tie the game in the top of the seventh only to give up three runs in the bottom of the frame. They were unable to recover and wound up with the loss. The Royals finished with only four hits in the contest, all singles, with no player having more than one. Whit Merrifield drove in a pair of runs while Andrew Benintendi knocked in the other for Kansas City in the loss. Zack Greinke threw six strong innings, allowing three runs on six hits with no walks and four strikeouts, though he didn’t factor in the decision. Collin Snider (2-1) took the loss in relief, allowing two runs on two hits with no walks and a strikeout in two-thirds of an inning of work.
Brad Keller is on the mound as he makes his fourth start of the season for the Royals in this contest. He comes in 0-2 with a 2.55 ERA, a 0.906 WHIP, five walks and 14 strikeouts over 17.2 innings of work this season. Keller took the loss in his last start, which came Friday on the road against the Mariners. He threw 4.2 innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on six hits with two walks and four strikeouts in a game the Royals dropped by a 4-1 count. Keller makes his 17th career appearance and 14th start against the White Sox in this contest. He comes in 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.326 WHIP, 27 walks and 65 strikeouts over 77.2 innings of work. Keller is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.86 WHIP, 18 walks and 31 strikeouts over 33.1 innings in seven career starts at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Chicago White Sox Hoping to Build Positive Momentum
Chicago snapped an eight-game losing streak by winning the middle game of the set Wednesday afternoon but it wasn’t easy. The White Sox entered Wednesday night tied for second in the AL Central, two games behind the Twins for the division lead. Chicago got three hits from Jake Burger (run, RBI) while Andrew Vaughn (run, four RBI) and Tim Anderson (two runs) each added a pair. Burger hit his second homer of the season while Vaughn’s fourth, a three-run shot in the seventh, broke a 3-3 tie to send the White Sox on to victory. Dylan Cease threw six innings, allowing two runs on three hits with three walks and nine strikeouts only to not factor in the decision. Bennett Sousa (1-0) got the final two outs of the seventh to earn the win. Kendall Graveman threw two scoreless frames, allowing no hits with no walks and four strikeouts, for his first save.
Michael Kopech is on the bump for the White Sox as he logs his fourth start of the season in this contest. He comes in with no record, a 0.64 ERA, a 0.786 WHIP, five walks and 15 strikeouts over 14 innings of work this season. Kopech didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came on the road against the Twins Friday night. He threw five scoreless frames, allowing three hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in a game the White Sox dropped 2-1. Kopech makes his eighth career appearance and second start against the Royals in this contest. He comes in with no record, a 4.97 ERA, a 0.947 WHIP, two walks and 16 strikeouts over 12.2 innings of work. Kopech is 3-4 with a 3.50 ERA, a 1.037 WHIP, 17 walks and 76 strikeouts over 54 innings of work in 25 career appearances, six starts, at Guaranteed Rate Field.
We’ve seen the teams split two meetings coming into this contest but the White Sox are still struggling at this point in time. Neither starter has picked up a win on the mound despite turning in solid outings and they have decent metrics working for them. The hope for the White Sox is that Luis Robert will be back soon while Yoan Moncada is slated to potentially go on a rehab assignment this weekend. Chicago had dropped eight straight games before winning Wednesday. At the end of the day, you have to lean on the strong pitching group and that leans to the White Sox as Kopech gets them through the first five or six frames before the bullpen closes it out.
Pick: White Sox ML (-170)
