New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants (22-18) will host the New York Mets (28-15) on Monday in the opening contest of a three-game series.
The Mets beat the Rockies 2-0 on Sunday and now lead the NL East by eight games. Both runs came in the second inning. Franciso Lindor drove in the game’s first run with a single, and Pete Alonso drove in the other run on a ground out.
New York’s offense is 10th in MLB averaging 4.5 runs per game, third with a .253 batting average, and 21st with 34 home runs. Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 10 home runs and 27 RBI.
New York’s pitching staff is eighth in MLB with a 3.41 ERA and sixth with a 1.14 WHIP. David Peterson, who is 3-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four appearances this season, is set to make his fourth start on Monday. The 26-year-old southpaw will be making his first appearance since allowing four hits, and three earned runs in a 5-4 win against the Atlanta Braves on May 3. Peterson is making this start due to Max Scherzer being injured, and expected to miss six to eight weeks.
The San Francisco Giants dropped their fourth straight game on Sunday, falling to the San Diego Padres 10-1. The Giants are third in the NL West, five games behind the Dodgers, and 4.5 games behind the Padres after the loss.
San Francisco has shined offensively, ranking second in MLB averaging just under five runs per game and ranking ninth with 43 home runs.
Unfortunately, the pitching has struggled with a 4.05 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, which are both 24th in MLB. Alex Cobb who is 3-1 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, will start Monday. Cobb allowed 10 hits and seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 10-7 win over the Rockies last Tuesday.
In road games, the Mets are MLB’s third-best money team at +$537 and a 15-7 record, according to Covers.com. They have also won 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. The Giants are 11-10 at home but the ninth-lowest profitable team in those games at -$284. San Francisco is also just 1-4 in their last five games when playing a team with a winning percentage above .600. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Alex Cobb starting for the Giants, especially as a considerable favorite. I love the Mets at this underdog price.
Prediction: Mets money line +130
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
The Houston Astros play host to the Cleveland Guardians in the series opener on Monday night from Minute Maid Park. With the mid-week being a three-game set, Monday’s matchup will be instrumental to set the tone for both teams going forward in this one. Though American League foes, the two only met seven times last season, with Houston dominating the season series. Winning six of seven games, the Astros will look to keep that going as they square off for the first time in 2022. Adding in how well they’re playing and being at home, Houston will certainly be favored, yet Cleveland won’t be the type of group to back down in this one.
The Guardians turned some heads over the first month of the season with their success after missing out on the playoffs last season, but as May has gone on, it’s appeared more and more difficult for them to find wins. Cleveland finds itself only 4-6 over the last ten games but only has one win in their last five games. With only a 9-2 away from home as well, they might have some difficulty getting things going early on in this one. Adding in their struggles against Houston last season, confidence is likely to be low for this group, which they can’t afford as they continue to see Minnesota pull away atop the AL Central and the White pull past them.
One positive that Cleveland has going for itself is its ability to stay ahead on the injury report. With only four players listed in total, they’ll have all of their expected position players available, while only being without two starters and one reliever.
The Guardians are still undecided on who they’ll be handing the ball off to on Monday night, though with their defensive struggles, it might not matter much to Houston’s lineup. The Indians rank 24th in baseball in runs allowed per nine innings, as well as ranking 18th in home runs allowed per game, which is even more concerning. Houston has made a living this season on the long ball and if Cleveland continues to leave pitches out over the plate, it could be problematic. It appears like Triston McKenzie could get the nod though, as the power-righty comes in with a 2-3 record and 2.97 ERA, which would give them some hope in this one.
Offensively, the Guardians were one of baseball’s best groups in the first month of the season and while they’ve cooled off slightly, they certainly remain dangerous. They rank in the top ten of baseball in runs per nine innings and batting average, with their low strikeout rate, third-best in baseball, continuing to give them plenty of opportunities. Jose Ramirez (9 HRs, 37 RBI, .383 OBP) has been elite in the lineup, while Owen Miller (.294 average) has helped try to pace the offense from the front. Over the last week, Myles Straw (.357 average) has turned it on and if he can continue to get on base for Ramirez behind him, it could help see the Guardians find success.
While Cleveland will have to hit the road for this series, Houston has the luxury of staying home after having welcomed the Rangers to town over the weekend. They’ve only gone 6-4 in their last ten games but being able to take three of four against Texas has helped get them back on the right path. It has been a great start to the season for Houston though and being at home should allow them to draw on some of that confidence and momentum. They sit in first place in the AL West, two games clear of the Angels, while only finding themselves sitting behind the two New York teams for the best record in baseball. After dominating Cleveland last season, they will absolutely be looking to keep that going into 2022 and set the tone on Monday.
Much like their opponent, the lack of injuries has definitely benefited this group quite a bit. They too only have four players listed on the injury report coming into the midweek slate of games, with a pair of top-end starters and then Jake Meyers (shoulder) and Taylor Jones (back) remaining out from a positional player perspective.
The Astros will turn the ball over to Luis Garcia for Monday night as the righty looks to take care of business in the opener. He comes in with a 3-2 record and 3.35 ERA, though is coming off of a rough start the last time out against the Red Sox. He’s only faced Cleveland hitters nine times in his career, allowing a single hit. The lack of experience could benefit him early and with one of baseball’s best bullpens, Houston can ideally hand it off to them for the back half of the action to close things out.
Offensively, Houston has taken a step back from being one of the most feared offenses in baseball over the last handful of years, and could actually feel the pressure themselves to keep pace with Cleveland. They come into Monday night ranked 13th in baseball in runs per nine innings and in the bottom third of baseball in batting average. Balance has been the key to success for Houston and if they are all firing on Monday night, Cleveland will be in for a world of trouble. Michael Brantley (.290 average, .372 OBP) has continued to be instrumental, while Yordan Alvarez (12 HRs) has turned into one of the most feared hitters in the league. Adding in Kyle Tucker (26 RBI) and Alex Bregman to the mix, there are plenty of lineup positions for Houston to turn to for success.
Houston is primed to start off the series with a win on Monday and while their pitching remains strong, the depth of their lineup will be the difference. Garcia is more than capable of handling Cleveland’s lineup, which has been on a downward trajectory of late. The real concern is how Cleveland will handle Houston’s offense, especially being on the road. McKenzie is likely to get the start but the issues in the bullpen are likely to cause issues in the later innings, especially given Houston’s depth and experience within the lineup. Cleveland has had major issues limiting the longball for opponents and with Houston being one of baseball’s best power-hitting teams, the longball could dictate how this one goes. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Guardians are 2-10 in their last 12 games as a road underdog, while the Astros are 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Houston and 7-1 in the last eight meetings overall.
Prediction: Houston -1.5
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
The (26-14) Milwaukee Brewers and the (26-14) San Diego Padres will play the first game of this three-game series. The first pitch will be thrown out at 9:40 PM EST inside Petco Park. This will also be the first time that these two teams face off this season.
The Milwaukee Brewers are coming into this one after winning their third consecutive series. They have taken down the Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, and the Washington Nationals in the last 10 ten days. The Brewers have performed very well on the defensive side of the field, as their pitching and fielding have carried them.
The San Diego Padres are entering this one after winning their previous series against the San Francisco Giants. They won the first two games of this three-game series, as the Giants looked great on the defensive side of the field, as well.
The Milwaukee Brewers are coming into this one after winning their third consecutive series. They have looked great on both sides of the field to start this season, as they are currently in first place in the NL Central. On the offensive side of the field, they are scoring 4.78 runs per game and hitting .238 as a team. This is the sixth most runs scored per game and the 15th highest overall team batting average. They are finding different ways to score, as they are stringing together hits to create big innings and they are also hitting home runs that change the game. Milwaukee is also averaging 1.38 home runs per game, which is the third-highest average in the league. They have a very deep batting order and any one of them can smoke the ball out of the park. The Brewers have also been one of the most aggressive base running teams, as they know they have the talent to drive in runs when they are in scoring position. They have already stolen 28 bases, which is the third-most in the league. I would recommend watching Hunter Renfroe at the plate in this one. He has already hit nine home runs and is hitting .268 to begin this new season, as both of these statistics lead his team.
On the defensive side of the field, the Brewers are also performing at a high level. They are currently allowing 3.34 runs per game and have a combined team WHIP rating of 1.17. This is the fifth least amount of runs allowed per game and the eighth-highest overall WHIP rating. They are doing a great job of keeping their opponents off the base paths and it is making it very difficult for them to score. Milwaukee has also been able to rely on their starting pitching all season, as they have already recorded 18 quality starts. This is the second-most in the league, as the Brewers have not had to rely on their bullpen early in these games. Their starters have shown that they can go very deep into these games and they have the stamina to take down anyone. The only thing that the Brewers need to work on is their fielding errors. They have already committed 25 this season, which is the 22nd most in the MLB. They can’t give their opponents any free bases and still expect to win. According to MLB.com, Adrain Houser will be getting the start on the mound in this one. He has started this season (3-4) with a 3.22 ERA. He also has a 1.35 WHIP rating, as this is one of the highest on his team. This will be Houser’s eighth start, as he has already pitched in 36.1 innings and recorded 31 strikeouts.
The San Diego Padres have jumped out to a hot start this 2022 regular season, but they still have a long way to go. They are currently in second place in the NL West. On the offensive side of the field, they are scoring 4.38 runs per game and hitting .228 as a team. This is the 11th most runs scored per game, but the 22nd highest overall team batting average. They have struggled to consistently string together hits, but they luckily have multiple men that have been solid at the plate this season. San Diego has also realized that they don’t have as much home power littered throughout their lineup as they originally thought. They are only averaging .82 home runs per game, which is the 24th lowest average in the league. San Diego has also been one of the least aggressive base running teams, as they have relied on their batters to move their runners into scoring position. They have only stolen 20 bases, which is the 17th least in the MLB. I would recommend watching for Manny Machado at the plate in this one, as he currently leads his team with the highest batting average, the most home runs, and the most RBIs. He is currently hitting .358, which is one of the highest averages in the league. Machado has also hit eight home runs and driven in 25 runs.
On the defensive side of the field, the Padres have been one of the best teams in the league. They aren’t making many mistakes and they are allowing their pitching to do the majority of the work. The Padres are currently allowing 3.53 runs per game and have a combined team WHIP rating of 1.15. This is the 20th least amount of runs allowed per game and the seventh-lowest combined team WHIP rating. They are keeping their opponents off the base paths and it is making it very difficult to score. The Padres have also already recorded 21 quality starts, which is the most in the league. There hasn’t been a better starting pitching rotation this season, as all of their guys have shown that they can go very deep in these games. I have also been very impressed with the Padre’s fielding, as they have only committed 14 fielding errors this season. This is the least amount of errors committed this season, as they have been one of the top fielding teams in the league. They keep the ball in front of themselves and always know where to go to get the nearest out. According to ESPN.com, Nick Martinez will be getting the start on the mound in this one. He has started this season (2-2) with a 1.33 ERA. He has pitched for 34.2 innings and already recorded 36 strikeouts.
The San Diego Padres have jumped out to a hot start to begin this 2022 regular season, but they won’t be able to cover the run line spread in this matchup against the Brewers. Milwaukee has won their last three series and they are playing some of their best ball of the year. They also have the more reliable pitcher on the mound. Adrian Houser is getting the start in this one and he has what it takes to take down this Padres offense. He currently has a 3.22 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP rating. The Padres have the 22nd lowest team batting average and I don’t believe they will be able to string together enough hits to score more runs than the Brewers. I will be taking Milwaukee (-1.5), as they are currently scoring the sixth-most runs per game and averaging the third-most home runs. San Diego will be starting Nick Martinez on the mound. He hasn’t looked dominant enough to win this game and this deep Milwaukee batting order is going to give him a run for his money. The Brewers will consistently score throughout this game and they will cover the run line spread.
Prediction: Brewers -1.5
