By Ian Wharton
The American League has dominated the All-Star Game recently, winning eight consecutive Midsummer Classics. However, the National League is the betting favorite this year. We like the AL to keep dominating in a low-scoring clash.
It’s officially the halfway point of the big-league season, which means it’s time for baseball’s best talent to converge at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles for the annual MLB All-Star Game. And while not everyone is a fan of the Midsummer Classic, it’s basically the only game in town this week. So, you know even casual fans will want to have a wager on it.
Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge head up an American League squad that has won an incredible eight straight All-Star Games. But it’s the National League, led by the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts, that is the betting favorite. Can this NL squad end the skid, or will the AL continue its dominance?
The National League opened as a slight -120 favorite. However, the early money is coming in on the Junior Circut as the line has moved to NL -115 as of Tuesday morning. The total hit the board at 8 but most markets have moved to 7.5.
MLB All-Star Game predictions
- Prediction: AL ML (-105)
- Prediction: Under 8 (-125)
- Best bet: F5 Under 4 (-120)
Betting trend to know
The Under is 12-3 in the last 15 MLB All-Star games.
MLB All-Star Game picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The American League has dominated the National League in the MLB All-Star game for a while now, with the Junior Circuit winning the Midsummer Classic eight straight times and going 20-3-1 in the last 24 overall.
That is pretty incredible when you think about it, but oddsmakers are giving the NL the edge to end that ugly skid as they are the slight favorites as of early Monday afternoon.
The NL squad tasked with ending this losing streak will be led by superstar Ronald Acuna Jr., as well as MVP betting favorites Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals and Manny Machado of the Padres. They’ll be joined by crowd favorites from the hometown Dodgers in Mookie Betts and Trea Turner.
Off the bench, they have guys like Home Run Derby favorite Pete Alonso of the Mets and Juan Soto of the Nationals. However, the NL will be missing several big-name position players, including Bryce Harper, Jazz Chisholm, and Nolan Arenado to name a few.
On the other side of the diamond, the American League is led by Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani. The two-way star was selected as both a hitter and a pitcher for the second-straight season and he is the betting favorite to win his second straight AL MVP as well. He leads an AL lineup featuring Bronx Bombers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and Blue Jays bopper Vlad Guerrero Jr.
And while both sides have had to make some significant injury replacements, it is the NL who seems to be more hampered heading into this matchup, particularly their starting pitchers. On top of the injuries already mentioned, the NL will be without the trio of the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes, the Braves’ Max Fried, and the Giants’ Carlos Rodon. Three of the best pitchers in the NL this season.
With them out, we’re giving a slight edge to the AL when it comes to starters. There is a lot to like about the trio of youngsters the AL can trot out, including the Rays’ Shane McClanahan, the Blue Jays’ Alek Manoah, and, of course, Ohtani.
You can also make the case the AL has more star power coming off the bench with the likes of the Guardians’ Jose Ramirez, the Rangers’ Corey Seager, and the Red Sox’s J.D. Martinez all ready to step in when called upon.
That edge in starters means we will be taking the value with the AL as slight underdogs and betting them to make it nine in a row over the NL. On top of that, it could be worth a wager to take them on the run line at +165. The AL has won this Midsummer Classic by at least two runs six times over this dominant run.
Prediction: American League moneyline
Over/Under analysis
The American League hasn’t been the only thing dominating All-Star games over the past few years: The Under is also a remarkable 12-3 over the last 15 Midsummer Classics. An interesting number when you consider this is a coming together of the game’s best players. But it appears the old baseball adage holds true even in the All-Star Game: “Great pitching beats great hitting.”
There has been an average of 6.87 total runs scored per game over this 15-game stretch and there have been double-digit runs scored just once in that time. That was an 8-6 AL victory in 2018 — which needed extra innings.
That game also only had eight runs scored heading into the bottom of the ninth, so it’s fair to say pitchers have had the edge in the Midsummer Classic in recent years. But it seems oddsmakers and baseball bettors are aware of this trend. After last year’s total was a high 11, the number opened at a more typical 8, before dropping to 7.5 this year.
That said, this number is still high enough for us to side with the Under. Even with the starters missing from this game, there is still plenty of firepower available for both teams, which includes a very talented NL bullpen.
Another thing to consider is that we are in the midst of a season that is on pace for the fourth-lowest league-wide batting average (.242) in MLB history and the lowest since 1968, while also seeing the fifth most strikeouts per game (8.35).
Obviously, a game with this much talent has a chance to go Over but great pitching has been the name of the game for a long time and there is still an 8 or two out there, which is just high enough for it to sneak Under once again.
Prediction: Under 8
Best bet
It has been announced that the Dodgers’ own Clayton Kershaw will start the game for the National League while the American League will counter with young fireballer Shane McClanahan.
It’s easy to understand why Brian Snitker went with Kershaw here (even though it probably should have been the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara). Kershaw has been here before and no one is more comfortable on the mound at Dodger Stadium. Oh, and his 2.38 expected ERA and .218 opponent expected batting average aren’t too shabby either.
Snitker should follow up Kershaw by handing the ball to Cy Young betting favorite Alcantara, possibly for more than the customary one inning the way he is pitching deep into games this season.
Meanwhile, McClanahan has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season. The lefty owns a 2.26 xERA and a .195 opponent xBA. Plus, he strikes out 12 batters per nine. Then, don’t be surprised if Dusty Baker follows him with Ohtani — if he is available to pitch — and Alek Manoah.
These pitchers should set the tone for this game early and be the catalyst for the Under, but we like the Under on the first five innings even more.
Pick: First five innings Under 4
