The New York Knicks and the Miami Heat both pulled off upsets to reach the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Now they will clash for a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Check out our preview and predictions for Game 1 below!
Game Info
Date: Sunday, April 30th, 2023
Time: 1:00 PM Local Time (EST)
Location: Madison Square Garden — New York, New York, USA
TV: ABC
Betting Info
Spread – Knicks -4
Total – 207.5
Miami Heat Preview
The first round of NBA playoff action saw the Miami Heat, led by a heroic effort from Jimmy Butler, upset the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in just five games to become the first play-in team in NBA history to win a playoff series, and just the sixth #8 seed to advance past a #1 seed. Scoring 56 points in game 4 and 42 points in game 5 to close out the series, Jimmy Butler had one of the most dominant and impressive series’ in recent memory, leading the underdog Heat past a loaded Bucks team with the best record in the NBA.
Even with scoring guards Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo sidelined with injuries, the Heat have managed to go from one of the worst offenses during the regular season to one of the best offenses in the playoffs. Averaging 124 PPG in their last series compared to 109.5 PPG during the regular season, the Heat saw a big improvement in their three-point shooting. Against the best defense in the NBA, the Heat knocked down 15 3-pointers a game throughout the series after ranking 27th in the league in 3-point shooting during the regular season.
In addition to the stellar play of Butler, Miami had their other stars step up including their versatile big man Bam Adebayo who turned former Defensive Player of the Year Brook Lopez into a mismatch as he averaged 17.4 Points, 8.6 Rebounds, and 5 assists per game while closing out the series with a 20 point, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists triple-double. Also, role players Kevin Love, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson stepped up big for South Beach, knocking down a number of big threes down the stretch to close out games and seal their series victory.
New York Knicks Preview
New York Knick Fans are the most hyped they’ve been in years as they will be advancing to the second round of the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2013. The Knicks are also coming off an impressive upset victory led by their suffocating defense of big man Mitchell Robinson who helped them seal the series in just 5 games, shutting down the talented Cleveland Cavaliers to just 94.2 points per game.
Offensively, the Knicks were led by their tough-nosed duo of Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle that dominate in the paint and represent the greedy attitude of their passionate fanbase. Brunson, their elusive guard who is both sturdy and shifty, took the series into his own hands and used his physicality and creativity to put up 24 PPG on 44% shooting from the field, dominating the Cavs from all 3 levels of the defense. In addition to Brunson, the Knicks got a great performance from their talented young wing RJ Barrett, who scored 21 PPG throughout the series on 51% shooting and added a secondary scoring option that made the Knicks’ offense extremely difficult to contain.
The Knicks’ other star Julius Randle who is another force to be reckoned with, dominated inside and in the mid-range with his versatile post and isolation game, but with Randle coming off an ankle injury that he aggravated in their last game, his ability to stay on the floor will be an important factor in their chances of winning their next series.
Matchup Preview
90s basketball fans will remember this fierce rivalry back in the day and with both teams playing a tough and hard-nosed style of play, the rivalry between New York and Miami may heat up once again. Both teams are coming off impressive upset victories and their confidence is sky-high. Neither team was expected to get to this point, but both believe they are championship contenders and are poised for a deep run in the playoffs.
In this matchup, 3-point shooting will be critical for the Heat to keep up their hot offensive streak, while health and defense will be critical for the Knicks to keep up with the star-powered Heat. Jimmy Butler has been dominant throughout his playoff career and will be critical to slow down if the Knicks have any hope of winning. They will need another great series from Brunson and Barrett and will need Randle to be healthy as soon as possible. The Heat love to play zone on the defensive end and will likely continue that trend against a Knicks team who sometimes struggles from deep. The Knicks don’t rely on the 3-point line to win, but they will need to shoot efficiently from the mid-range if they want to keep up with the red-hot Heat.
In addition to shooting, the rebounding differential will be an important aspect in determining the winner of this series, as the Knicks have taken advantage of the glass putting up 91 second-chance points and out-rebounding the Cavaliers by 41 throughout their last series. With the Heat lacking size in the front court, it will be critical that they focus their attention on crashing the glass and limiting second-chance points for the Knicks, especially New York’s big man Mitchell Robinson who thrives at taking advantage on the glass with put-backs and tip-ins.
Betting Picks
Spread – Miami +4 (1.95)
With Jimmy Butler playing incredibly well as out late and Julius Randle unlikely to play in game 1, Miami +4 seems to be the right play given the odds and spread. This should be a close and competitive game that features physical play and outstanding effort, but Miami’s firepower may be too much for the tough-nosed Knicks defense to handle. Without one particularly effective lockdown defender, it will be tough to slow Butler down, especially considering the outstanding shooting surrounding him. After Butler dominated against the best defensive unit in the NBA and arguably the best on-ball defender in the league Jrue Holiday, it is unlikely that the Knicks will be able to slow him down either. In addition to Butler, the Heat’s role players have stepped up big as of late and have been knocking down big shots despite struggling during the regular season. If they are able to continue their hot shooting, it will be hard for the Knicks to keep up with their outburst of scoring without Randle in the lineup.
Total – Over 207.5 (1.90)
With a very low total and great value, the over seems to be a solid bet given the offensive outburst that both teams have seen recently. With Jimmy Butler playing out of his mind for the Heat over the last 2 games and Brunson and Barrett playing extremely well on the offensive end for the Knicks, both teams have enough star power to turn this game into a shootout. 207 points is too low of a total considering both teams have been shooting well recently and like to play up-tempo on the fast break.
Prop – New York Knick’s Mitchell Robinson over 9.5 rebounds (1.76)
Coming off an 18-rebound performance with 11 boards coming on the offensive end, Miami will surely commit to limiting any opportunities for second-chance points, but with the Heat’s lack of size in the frontcourt, it may be hard to completely shut down Robinson from snagging double-digit rebounds. Both teams like to play at a fast pace and get up and down the court and with Miami relying a lot more on the 3-point shot, there should be plenty of opportunities for Robinson to capitalize on the boards. Especially if Julius Randle can’t suit up, the Knicks will rely on Robinson to control the glass, making it likely that he snags more than 9 rebounds to start the series.
