By Scott Kacsmar
The Miami Dolphins entered 2022 with realistic expectations of the playoffs and some Coach of the Year buzz for rookie Mike McDaniel. At the end of the year, the Dolphins did punch their tickets to the playoffs with a 9-8 record, and they pushed the Bills in a 34-31 wild card loss.
However, the season felt like it could have been much better than that, but some questionable handling of unfortunate injuries led Miami to a real up-and-down season.
For a team that is approaching team building in a similar fashion to the 49ers and Rams in the NFC, the Dolphins have some incredible athletes and team speed to show off this year. However, the sportsbooks still only view them as the No. 3 team in the AFC East behind the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets, with the latter getting the push for adding Aaron Rodgers in the offseason. The Dolphins (over/under 9.5 wins) have already suffered one of training camp’s worst injuries with a torn meniscus for corner Jalen Ramsey.
We look back at the 2022 season that saw Miami’s actions lead to league action on concussions, the key offseason changes, the crowded AFC race, and what the best Dolphins bets are for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: The Highs and Lows
The 2022 Dolphins had the kind of up-and-down season that usually will not even result in a playoff appearance, but the highs were just good enough to outdo the lows for this team, and it qualified as the No. 7 seed and last team in the tournament on the AFC side.
But this was a unique run to go on:
- 3-0 start: Highlighted by a 21-point fourth-quarter comeback in Baltimore and holding off the Bills, 21-19, in extreme heat despite Tua Tagovailoa leaving the game at one point for what looked like a concussion.
- 0-3 slump: Another scary Tua concussion just 4 days later in Cincinnati that saw him carted off the field to the local hospital. The Dolphins would also see Teddy Bridgewater get injured in a loss during this stretch.
- 5-0 run once Tua returned: Dolphins were able to beat up on lesser competition, including the Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns, and Texans.
- 0-5 slump: Miami struggled against a tougher slate of opponents, including the 49ers, Bills, and a Chargers game where Tua was wildly inaccurate. He also suffered another concussion in a loss on Christmas Day against Green Bay that would end his season.
- 1-1 finish: Dolphins outlasted the Jets in an ugly 11-6 game in Week 18 to make the playoffs. Then with third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson starting in Buffalo in the wild-card round, the Dolphins came back from a 17-0 hole to take a lead before losing 34-31 in another sloppy, wild game that was close with the Bills as all three matchups were decided by a total of 8 points.
The 2022 Dolphins are just the 9th team since 1970 to have a 5-game losing streak and still make the playoffs. Clearly, the timeline of Tua’s concussions played a huge role in this streaky play, though he did lose his final 4 starts of the season too when the Dolphins were playing better opponents.
Maybe Tua’s health would have been in better shape had the Dolphins not rushed him back to action 4 days later in the ill-fated Cincinnati game where he had another concussion. The mishandling of that situation led to a new league protocol for checking concussions in players and their return time to action.
Unfortunately, Tua would suffer another concussion on Christmas, and he was reportedly contemplating retirement after this latest incident. But hopefully, this is something he can avoid going forward because 2022 was a breakout year for him in this offense. He led the NFL in a variety of passing efficiency metrics, including passer rating, yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, touchdown pass rate, and yards per completion.
The addition of Tyreek Hill in McDaniel’s system was also pivotal as Hill’s speed combined with the speed of Jaylen Waddle produced an incredible duo of wideouts. Hill’s 1,710 receiving yards were a career-high.
Miami’s defense and run game had more shortcomings than expected, but it is hard to argue with this effort from the team in McDaniel’s first year.
Offseason Review
It is always nice when you can maintain that chemistry as head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback, which the Dolphins are doing this year. But something had to give at defensive coordinator after McDaniel kept Josh Boyer on despite some underwhelming results in the past. The improvement was not there last season, and Boyer is gone in place of veteran coach Vic Fangio.
Fangio usually gets above-average results on defense, which may be all the Dolphins need to have a successful year again. Fangio can get more out of Bradley Chubb, a Pro Bowler he had in Denver, who the Dolphins only traded for during last season. Chubb played in just 8 games for Miami but was tracking to lead the team in pressures if he played a full season.
Unfortunately, Fangio has already lost one of his key new pieces to this defense in corner Jalen Ramsey, who tore his meniscus in a training camp injury last week. Some reports feel Ramsey could return in 3 months while others fear December is the earliest possible return. We will see what happens there, but no doubt it would have been a stronger secondary with Ramsey joining forces with Xavien Howard and second-round rookie Cam Smith. He was Miami’s highest-drafted player this year after forfeiting a first-round pick for the team’s role in a tampering charge.
As for the offense, you could argue the pursuit of a third receiving option after Hill and Waddle has gotten worse this year after the team lost tight end Mike Gesicki to New England and wide receiver Trent Sherfield to Buffalo. They were the third and fourth leading receivers on this team last year.
The Dolphins have added Braxton Berrios, a sixth-round pick in 2018, from the Jets, but he has never been able to put it together as a wide receiver. It will be on Hill and Waddle to stay healthy.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Miami’s Place in Crowded AFC
The Dolphins allowed 2 more points than they scored last season, and the last 9 teams to make the playoffs with a negative scoring differential all failed to return the following season.
You could argue that number would have been positive and higher with a healthy Tagovailoa for 17 games, but health is never a guarantee in this league as the Ramsey injury shows. Tua also has yet to play more than 13 games in any of his seasons since 2020.
Miami seemingly has a smart coach, a quarterback on the rise, the best speed duo at wide receiver in the NFL, some solid players in the secondary and pass rush, and not much depth at those positions. Mike White should be a solid backup quarterback option from the Jets to avoid a Skylar Thompson situation, but White also has a small frame and durability issues himself.
But an injury to Hill or Waddle, to Chubb or Howard, and the units on this team suddenly seem pretty basic. This is the issue of building up similar to the Rams where you have stars and scrubs and little depth.
The Dolphins have the 7th-best odds (+1300 at FanDuel) to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but that does not necessarily have them in the playoffs given someone (likely Jacksonville) has to win the AFC South.
The AFC is very deep right now thanks to the abundance of quality quarterbacks in the conference. If you pencil in a playoff spot to the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals as the elite trio once again, and give the South to Jacksonville, then that only leaves three spots.
Baltimore is hopeful to return with Lamar Jackson coming back paid and healthy. It is hard to see that team blowing another 21-point lead to Miami when the two meet in Baltimore in Week 17.
The Dolphins play the Bills tough, but they are still 2-9 against Josh Allen, and the only recent win was in that 90-degree scorcher last year, a game where Buffalo outgained the Dolphins by over 275 yards. The Bills do not have to go to Miami until Week 18 this year when it should not be that hot. Buffalo should be favored to win the AFC East again, which would leave the Dolphins fighting for the final wild card spots.
Aaron Rodgers may have had his worst season last year, but he still beat the Dolphins on Christmas Day. Now he gets a better defense and legitimate No. 1 receiver (Garrett Wilson) in his arsenal again. It is easy to understand why expectations are high for the Jets, who should end their 12-year playoff drought.
That leaves the No. 7 seed again, and that means the Dolphins competing with teams like the Chargers, Steelers, Browns, and Broncos. Miami is in Los Angeles in Week 1 to face the Chargers, so if it loses that game again like it did last year, that could prove to be the difference for a tie-breaker at the end of the year.
Keep in mind the Dolphins also have to play two of the elite NFC teams in the Cowboys and Eagles (on the road). This is not an easy schedule, and the Dolphins have not proven enough yet in the AFC to get the benefit of the doubt that they will be there in the end.
Best Bets for the 2023 Dolphins
It would not be uncommon for a quarterback like Tua to step up in his second year in a system with his head coach, but the lack of depth plus a tough schedule for the Dolphins makes them a scary pick for returning to the playoffs.
The line of 9.5 wins is a good one for the Dolphins because it should be a close battle again after towing that line the last three seasons. But the reason the under looks enticing is that final stretch of games against the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills. Not easy to predict any team going 0-4 in this league, but after the streaky year Miami had last season, it would not be a shock if that finish does them in for the playoffs this time.
That is why our best bets for the Dolphins are to come up just short of the playoffs and under 9.5 wins. Finding a third receiving option who could complement the speed of Hill and Waddle should be a priority next season.
NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins to miss playoffs (-115 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins under 9.5 wins (-110 at FanDuel)
