By Matt Williamson
Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL season! Let’s dive into my preview of the top games as we round out the first month of action.
Week 4 NFL preview
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
This game is a 9:30 EST start time being played in London.
New Orleans has scored almost 75% of their points in the fourth quarter, which is the highest percentage in the league. They have trailed by double digits in every game this year. It is safe to say that this offense has taken a while to get things going each week. The Colts are the only offense with a worse EPA per play than New Orleans.
Jameis Winston will be out this week as Andy Dalton steps in for him. With Winston, New Orleans was throwing the ball the fourth-highest percentage in the league. The Saints have the most 20+ yard completions in the league and Winston boasted the highest average depth of target of all quarterbacks.
Usually, Winston is chucking it deep to Chris Olave, who has a 33% and 34% target share the past two games. The Saints might be smart to lean even more on Alvin Kamara, who has been fine, but not great this season. Still, the Saints are averaging 5.5 yards per rushing attempt.
The Saints -6 turnover differential is the very worst in football.
Kirk Cousins is currently 24th in EPA per play and isn’t having his best season. He is especially struggling on third downs. However, the Vikings have been outstanding at not getting to third downs. No offense in the league is creating a first down or touchdown on first and second down at a higher percentage.
But their passing game has really lost its explosiveness over their past two games. Minnesota’s passing game has become too Justin Jefferson-centric and while he is an elite receiver, someone else must step up to keep defenses honest with their coverage schemes.
New Orleans pass rush has been very problematic this year and Cousins should have time to throw. He is a much different quarterback under pressure vs. a clean pocket. Playing overseas is a challenge, but both of these teams need this win to show that they belong in the NFC.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Are the Jaguars ready for this stiff challenge? It sure looks that way.
But playing the Eagles right now, especially in Philadelphia, is a daunting proposition. The Jaguars have the NFL’s second-best point differential and Philadelphia is third. The Eagles are fourth in EPA per play on offense, but Jacksonville is seventh.
On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars are third and Philadelphia is seventh. Both of these teams are playing great on offense and defense right now. Not only is the Eagles offense generating the most yards per pass play in the NFL, but their defense is giving up the fewest. Jacksonville’s +7 turnover differential is the best in the league, but only the Jaguars and Ravens are better than Philadelphia.
Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts are also playing great football and they rank fifth and sixth respectively in EPA per play. It might surprise people just how much the Eagles are throwing the football. In winning or trailing game scripts they are above league average with their pass rate.
AJ Brown is the number one and Dallas Goedert has a big role, but DeVonta Smith is red hot right now. This is a brutal trio for Jacksonville’s secondary to deal with. When you combine explosive plays (runs over 10 yards and receptions over 20), only the Lions have more explosives than Philadelphia. Just three defenses are giving up fewer yards per carry than Jacksonville.
One of the best running teams in the league, Philadelphia has also done a great job of creating explosives in the passing game. They are second in the league in yards per play and no offense goes three and out less. Lawrence very much looks the part of the NFL’s next great quarterback and Jacksonville is scoring points on the highest percentage of their drives in the NFL through three games.
Now Jacksonville’s offense needs to create more explosive plays. Only four offenses have fewer runs of 10 or more yards combined with passes of 20 or more yards. The Eagles defense is only getting run on 31% of the time, but they are allowing 5.4 yards per rushing attempt. Only two defenses are worse.
On the road, look for Jacksonville to try to exploit this weakness. Philadelphia is blowing out their opponents in the first half of games and they are the only team that has yet to run an offensive play in the second half down on the scoreboard. Will that change this week against this new look Jaguars team?
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s offense is the highest scoring in football right now, but their defense is 24th in points allowed. The Ravens offense is accomplishing this despite running the 29th most plays per game because their 6.9 yards per play tops the league. And the Bills defense is seeing the fewest plays per game and allowing the second-best yards per play at 4.1.
The Bills are third in points per game but also fourth in points allowed. Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback with a better EPA per play than Lamar Jackson. Jackson is carrying his Ravens right now.
He has 60% of the Ravens rushing yards despite receiving just 36% of the carries. One-third of his rushing attempts have gained at least 10 yards. And Jackson is throwing the ball better than at any point of his career. He should be in the MVP conversation. Mark Andrews is having another fantastic season, but the Ravens are not getting enough from the running back position and left tackle is a big problem area. This could be a real problem against the Bills incredibly deep defensive line that is loaded with talent. Jackson had a very tough time against blitz last year but that very much looks to be corrected and Buffalo is the lowest blitz percentage defense in the NFL. They create pressure without blitzing.
The Bills issue is a multitude of injuries to their secondary. Despite getting very little from their running backs again this year, the Lions are the only team averaging more yards per rush than Baltimore. However, the Bills are only allowing 2.8 yards per carry, and they have given up just one running play over 10 yards. After leading the NFL in offensive snaps per game last year, Baltimore is now running the fourth-fewest plays per game.
Meanwhile, the Bills defense is playing the fewest snaps of any defense in the league. The Ravens offense is third in EPA per play, but Buffalo comes in at fifth in this very telling metric. However, the Bills defense is second while Baltimore’s is 21st. Baltimore’s opponents are throwing the ball at a clip over 70%, which is the highest in the league. Josh Allen also is very much in the MVP conversation. The Bills are throwing for 172.7 more yards than their opponents which is the highest differential in the league. 34.5% of the passing attempts on third down in the NFL resulted in first downs or touchdowns. Allen is at 65.5%.
The Ravens defense is 28th in yards per attempt allowed and is giving up way too many big plays through the air. The Ravens are one of eight defenses that are giving up five yards per carry or more. Baltimore’s defense has been on the field for more snaps than all but two teams. The Ravens have the NFL’s second-best turnover differential, but even after losing in Miami last week, the Bills still have the league’s best point differential.
There could be a lot of points in this game and watching these two quarterbacks duel it out will be worth the price of admission.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers
Mac Jones is out, leaving Brian Hoyer set to do battle against Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Turnovers have killed the Patriots this year and maybe Hoyer will play it a little closer to the vest with his experience than Mac Jones did through three games, but the drop-off at quarterback for New England just can’t be denied.
Hoyer has started two games over the past four seasons. His most recent start was in 2020. New England does have 13 pass plays of 20 yards or longer. That is the most in the league, but will it keep up? Rhamondre Stevenson could be in the process of taking over this backfield, not that Damien Harris is going to go away. But the Patriots should lean on these two, Stevenson particularly as a receiver, with Hoyer now as the starting quarterback.
Green Bay’s defense is loaded with former high draft picks and is in contention as the most talented unit in the entire league. This side of the ball has been exceptional on third downs and has many matchups in their favor against a mediocre group of Patriots skill players. Davante Adams might be in Las Vegas, but only three offenses have more explosive plays this year than the Packers. Except for last week in Tampa Bay, Green Bay is consistently generating big rushing days with their outstanding two-headed backfield.
Rodgers is also generating a lot of explosive pass plays even though Green Bay is playing offense at a very slow pace and Rodgers is attempting a very high percentage of his throws at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Patriots pass rush has been a real problem this year and Green Bay’s offensive line is starting to round back into shape. The Saints are the only team with a worse turnover differential than New England, who have been outscored by 21 points this year.
This could be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week and it feels as though New England will have to win the turnover and special teams battle if they are to pull out a victory.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This Sunday night battle is a Super Bowl LV rematch.
Some might think that Kansas City’s offense has taken a step back, but they are second in EPA per play and Patrick Mahomes is first amongst all quarterbacks. No offense has more 20+ yard completions than Kansas City-even without Tyreek Hill.
That being said, the non-Travis Kelce weapons in Kansas City’s offense have been extremely up and down with no one really stepping up yet. Mahomes is only targeting wide receivers on half of his throws.
However, Tampa Bay’s defense is first by a wide margin in EPA per play. They are also first in points allowed. Just 18.3% of the first and second down snaps against the Bucs have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in the NFL.
Meanwhile, 21.1% of the Bucs offensive drives have resulted in a first down or touchdown, which is 31st in the league. Tom Brady’s offense is currently 30th in EPA per play and only three offenses are getting less rushing production per attempt than Tampa Bay. Believe it or not, Tampa Bay’s offense is producing a touchdown on the lowest percentage of their drives in the entire league.
Brady has yet to throw multiple touchdowns in a game this year. The Bucs have had extreme unrest with their offensive line as well as at wide receiver and haven’t been able to lean heavily on their running game for consistent production. Getting Mike Evans back from suspension for this game should help and Russell Gage can at least offer some consistency for Brady.
A saving grace for Tampa Bay this year has been turnovers, where they are third best in the league.
