By Matt Williamson
Welcome to Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season. I’m breaking down the five biggest games of the week. Who will emerge as a true Super Bowl contender?
5 Biggest NFL Week 5 Games
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are coming off a tough Monday night loss in San Francisco in a game where their much-injured offensive line was a huge problem. Meanwhile, Dallas, one of the best pass-rushing teams in the league, is on a three-game winning streak.
It might shock many out there that the Rams are 29th in points scored per game. And Dallas is third-best in points allowed.
The Rams only run the football on 33% of their snaps and have been very ineffective when they do hand the ball off. Only the Jets throw it a higher percentage of the time. But an extremely high percentage of Matthew Stafford’s passing attempts are going to Cooper Kupp, who is basically uncoverable at this point, and Tyler Higbee.
Higbee is a fine player but is much more suited to being the fourth option in an NFL passing game rather than a number two. Meanwhile, Allen Robinson has been invisible. The Rams are 30th in explosive pass plays with Stafford not throwing a touchdown in back-to-back games-the first time that has occurred for him since 2016.
Cooper Rush has been efficient and has done what is asked of him filling in for Dak Prescott, who could possibly return for this matchup. Dallas has run the ball with both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard more with Rush behind center and their offensive line has held up well, particularly first-round pick Tyler Smith. However, dealing with Aaron Donald is always one of the most difficult challenges in this league and Los Angeles’ run defense has been as good as any in the NFL thus far.
Expect a very low-scoring game, something that has been a huge trend with Dallas this year.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday night in Baltimore should be rocking as the Ravens host the division-rival Bengals in what looks like a battle for superiority in the so-far underwhelming AFC North. After a rough start to their season, last year’s Super Bowl runners-up have won their last two.
Lamar Jackson is playing better this year than when he won the league’s MVP award and is carrying Baltimore’s offense, which has been noticeably better than the Ravens defense. Jackson is obviously a rare runner and has been consistently breaking off long runs, but he has been tremendous with his arm as well in a passing game that goes through Mark Andrews. Baltimore’s 6.2 yards per play is fourth-best in the NFL, but Cincinnati’s defense has been quite good this year.
Only one defense gives up fewer points per possession. Although the Bengals invested heavily in their offensive line, this unit is in contention for the worst front five in the NFL-and that shows up in both the run and pass game. This is one of the league’s worst rushing attacks, to no fault of Joe Mixon. They have been especially terrible at running the ball on first downs, which puts the offense as a whole behind the chains.
What is utterly surprising is that Cincinnati’s offense is 29th in the NFL at generating yards per play. But on the flip side, Baltimore’s defense is also 29th in the same metric. The Ravens have been playing with a lead a very high percentage of the time this year, which fits their style of play perfectly.
It will be important for Joe Burrow and his talented supporting cast to strike quickly in a hostile environment in a very important divisional contest.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
The only perfect team in the NFL right now travels to the other end of the country to battle the Cardinals. The Eagles are producing the fourth most points per game while Arizona is giving up the 28th most. Philadelphia’s defense is also allowing the third fewest yards per play and are best against the pass, as opposing offenses are generating just 4.3 yard per pass attempt.
They are excellent on both sides of the ball and are clearly the best team in their conference. The Eagles feature the NFL’s best offensive line, which is the backbone of their great offense.
The Cardinals have done really well against the run in 2022 and will have to maintain that to stay competitive in this game. But the Eagles also have a top-five type passing game. The Eagles are sporting a top defense with great physicality in the trenches. They have really excelled vs. the pass.
When you combine sacks and takeaways, no defense in the NFL has been better than Philadelphia’s. The Cardinals have yet to score a point in the first quarter of games this year while Philadelphia is the only team in the NFL that has not yet played from behind at any point in the second half.
If the Cardinals start slow, they could be doomed in this one.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
The Chargers will be without one of the NFL’s best edge defenders in Joey Bosa, but it is unclear if Cleveland will have Myles Garrett after his car accident. Rashawn Slater also is unavailable for Los Angeles, which is a much bigger deal if Garrett is in the mix. Cleveland has a lot of defensive injuries. Even without Deshaun Watson, only five teams are scoring more points per game than the Browns with an offense featuring the NFL’s best running game and best ball carrier in Nick Chubb.
Meanwhile, only two teams are giving up more points per game than the Chargers, who were dreadful against the run last year and aren’t much better this season with only Detroit giving up more yards per rush attempt. The Chargers are averaging 2.6 yards per rushing play less than their opponent this year, which is the worst in the league. And the Browns are averaging 74 more rushing yards per game than their opponents.
Obviously, this is a huge key to this game, but if Justin Herbert can get an early lead that could remedy this situation for Los Angeles, and he could have Keenan Allen back in the lineup to help that cause. It is apparent what both teams will be looking to do. Cleveland wants to dominate with their ground attack and the Chargers will lean on their outstanding young quarterback.
A win for either team will go a long way in the tumultuous AFC.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders just got their first win of the year, but now must travel to Kansas City on Monday night. Kansas City has one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, a unit that totally imposed their will in the run game last week against an excellent Buccaneers front that is well-known for not being run on. Match that with Patrick Mahomes, who leads all quarterbacks in EPA per play, and Travis Kelce, who is playing as superbly as ever, and you have an elite offense even as they figure out the wide receiver situation.
This has been possibly the best offense in football through four games and minus the Raiders edge pass-rushers, there is little to think that won’t keep up at home once again in Week 5. Las Vegas has been excellent when blitzing, but Mahomes notoriously destroys the blitz. The biggest problem for Las Vegas’ offense is their line, which is a bottom-tier unit in the league. But their usage of Josh Jacobs as both a runner and receiver has been encouraging.
Kansas City’s opponents are running the ball just 29.8% of the time against them, the lowest percentage in the league. Derek Carr will have to keep up with Mahomes, which means big games from Davante Adams and Darren Waller. Carr will also have to improve in the red zone. That is possible, but it’s an uphill climb, nonetheless. One thing these teams have in common is that both offenses are producing points on exactly half of their drives, which is the best in the league.
However, Kansas City’s drives result in a touchdown 35.7% of the time compared to 20% by the Raiders. The Chiefs look like one of the best three teams in the league while the Raiders are trying to save their season, a brutal chore in Kansas City.
