By Matt Williamson
Previewing NFL Week 3
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
These are two red-hot teams. We know the Bills belong amongst the NFL’s elite, but what about Miami? Between these two teams, they average 67 points scored per game with Buffalo first in the league and the Dolphins fourth in points scored. But the Bills are giving up just 8.5 points per game, the best in the NFL.
Buffalo’s defense surrenders just 3.6 yards per play, also best in the NFL, while the Dolphins give up 6.9, which is the worst in the league. A huge reason why is that Miami is worst in the NFL in yards allowed per completion as well as yards per passing play overall.
The Bills and Dolphins offenses are generating 6.7 yards every time they snap the ball. Only the Ravens are better. Only the Eagles are generating more yardage per game than these two teams, but San Francisco is the only defense that has given up fewer yards than the Bills.
Unlike Miami, the Bills are not giving up the big play through the air. In fact, they are best in the league right now in yards per completion allowed. However, last week, both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each had 10 or more receptions, 150 yards, and two touchdowns in the same game.
That is the first time in NFL history that has occurred. Hill has the most receiving yards in the league and Waddle is third with Stefon Diggs wedged between the two. These two Dolphins receivers are absolutely terrifying.
Last week, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 334 yards…in the second half! He has thrown for nearly 100 more yards than any other passer in the league through two games. The Dolphins offense is at the top of the league in the usage of play action as well as presnap motion. They throw an awful lot at opposing defenses and will see a very high percentage of nickel personnel from Buffalo.
Josh Allen has shown miraculous accuracy this year and it is amazing how his accuracy has drastically improved since entering the NFL. He is an unstoppable force. And he should have plenty of time to throw in this game unless Miami gets ultra-aggressive with their blitz packages.
In these teams’ last three matchups, Buffalo has won all three and by an average margin of victory of 26.7 points.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
This might come as a huge shock to many people, but the Bills are the only team scoring more points per game right now than Detroit. However, the Lions are also giving up the second most points per game as well. Their games have been a lot of fun and should continue down that same path even with Minnesota being in the top seven defensively and bottom seven offensively in points per game.
Just four offenses have produced more yardage than Detroit. The Lions are generating a lot of big plays with their running game behind an exceptional offensive line. De’Andre Swift has exactly 200 rushing yards through two games.
The Lions have been very potent on the ground and through the air and should remain so even on the road in Minnesota. Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t missed a beat from last year and is basically getting open at will. He has at least a 30% target share in eight straight games-and that is earned.
Kirk Cousins had a really rough outing last Monday in Philadelphia and has really struggled on third downs. But quarterbacks are putting up huge numbers against Detroit this year as are opposing wide receivers. This could be a blow-up spot for Justin Jefferson, who was rather quiet last week.
The key for Detroit will be generating some sort of consistent pressure and that starts with Aiden Hutchinson, who might be the early front runner for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Hutchinson is already seeing a high percentage of double-teams this early in his career. Cousins’ track record with a clean pocket vs. playing under pressure is stark. Minnesota’s new coaching staff is asking much more from Dalvin Cook in the passing game, aligning him all over the formation. And he remains an elite ball carrier.
This projects as a very high-scoring game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
Jacksonville might be the surprise team of 2022 and they currently look like the top team in the AFC South. Expectations for the Chargers entering the season were way higher and despite their loss to Kansas City last week, this team looks like a serious Super Bowl contender.
Assuming Justin Herbert plays in this game, this is about as lethal of an offense as there is in the NFL and Herbert is on a rocket ship path to being amongst the very best quarterbacks in football. However, Austin Ekeler’s usage has been curious, especially near the goal line and this offense has gotten very few big plays from their rushing attack.
It is very early to make such a declaration, but the Jaguars might have a star on their hands in first overall pick Travon Walker, who will align all over the defensive front. It is clear that Trevor Lawrence has taken a big step forward under his new coaching staff. Like Herbert, it might not be long before he is recognized as an elite quarterback.
Christian Kirk is the clear number one wideout and Evan Engram looks like another solid addition for Lawrence. James Robinson is a guy coaches love, and he is doing the bulk of the work in Jacksonville’s backfield with Travis Etienne acting basically as just a receiving back at this point. However, teams just are not running the ball against Los Angeles this year, as only 28% of the play calls against the Chargers in 2022 have been runs.
Khalil Mack already has 3.5 sacks with his new team, and this is a Chargers defense that is loaded with star power. Dealing with Joey Bosa and Mack coming off the edge should prove to be very difficult for the Jacksonville protection scheme.
Jacksonville’s +5 turnover differential is the best in the league after being the worst in the NFL by a very wide margin in 2022.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
These teams look much different than they did a year ago.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are basically splitting work right down the middle and we are also seeing the two of them on the field together at times, which makes sense as they are clearly Green Bay’s two top-skill position players. There isn’t a defense in the league playing better than Tampa Bay’s right now and this is especially true against the pass.
Aaron Rodgers could be under a lot of pressure in this game and his receivers are at a distinct disadvantage against Tampa Bay’s secondary. The Bucs are always stingy against the run. This defense is giving up just 6.5 points per game, which is best in the NFL.
But Rodgers’ offense has been highly efficient. They turn their first and second down opportunities into first downs or touchdowns at a higher rate than any offense in the NFL, especially through their running game.
Tom Brady is getting the ball out extremely quickly and for good reason. Mike Evans will not play in this game. While Brady’s receivers are very much in flux right now, the Bucs backfield totally belongs to Leonard Fournette, the NFL’s fifth-leading rusher. That is important because, with all of Tampa Bay’s offensive line and wide receiver issues, this offense has quickly morphed into a run-centric unit, especially on first downs, and the Packers’ opponents are running the ball at a 54% clip, which is the second highest in the league.
While the Bucs defense is playing better than any other in the league, Green Bay’s isn’t far behind and the Packers defense is littered with early draft picks. They might not be close to their best yet.
Meanwhile, the Bucs are turning their first and second down opportunities into first downs or touchdowns at the lowest rate in the league and this offense is rarely even getting red zone opportunities. Only the Jaguars have a better turnover differential than Tampa Bay, while Green Bay is -2 in this crucial stat.
The Buccaneers also have far and away the best sack differential in the NFL. You would think a duel between Rodgers and Brady would scream a shootout, but this projects as a low-scoring game with two excellent defenses controlling the flow of this game.
The Packers opponents are running the fewest plays in the league, which is another reason why we might not see a lot of scoring in this game.
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
San Francisco’s defense has given up the fewest yards in the league and the Broncos have allowed the third-fewest. Both these teams are giving up just 13 points per game and their opponents are running very few plays collectively as well.
This too could be a game played in the teens. It might be the first one to 20 points wins, but there is a fair amount of offensive talent here as well.
Trey Lance’s injury is a real shame, but San Francisco is extremely fortunate to still have Jimmy Garoppolo to lead their offense. We have seen exactly what that looks like with Garoppolo leading the charge and this year should be no different. Only the Bears have attempted fewer passes than San Francisco in 2022, but the 49ers could come out throwing in this game against a banged-up Denver secondary. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk could cause problems for this unit, and we might get George Kittle’s debut as well in Week 3.
Unlike the stability that Garoppolo brings to the Niners, Denver looks like a train wreck with their new head coach and quarterback. The Broncos lead the NFL in delay of games, false starts, and total offensive penalties and often look as though they can’t get out of their own way. They aren’t converting on key downs with short yardage to go and have been horrible in the red zone.
Despite so often shooting themselves in the foot, Denver’s offense has racked up 296 more yards than their opponents this year, but the 49ers are right behind them at +284 in yardage differential. Russell Wilson is struggling with his new team even if the yardage says otherwise.
The move here for Denver is to establish a ground game led by Javonte Williams at home in the high altitude, an approach that could really pay off in the fourth quarter.
